Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

Second Scottish independence referendum: what happens next?

Second Scottish independence referendum: what happens next?

SNP will face hurdles and risks in efforts to hold second Scottish vote on leaving the union

Scotland’s first minister and SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon made a significant statement on progress towards a second independence referendum at Holyrood on Tuesday, sending a personal email to the party’s estimated 119,000 members that said: “The referendum campaign starts here.”

Here we outline Sturgeon’s next steps, and the hurdles that the Scottish government may face in the near future.

What did Sturgeon announce?


Sturgeon told MSPs the Scottish government wants to stage a second independence referendum on 19 October 2023, using the same question put to voters in 2014: “Should Scotland be an independent country?”

Sturgeon said Scotland’s lord advocate, Dorothy Bain QC, has written to the supreme court asking it to rule on the legality of holding a new referendum without Westminster’s permission.

She also wrote to Boris Johnson formally requesting that Westminster gives Holyrood the legal powers to legislate for another vote under section 30 of the Scotland Act. That process was used in the 2014 referendum and has been consistently described as the “the gold standard” by Sturgeon.

What happens now?


The UK government has repeated its position that “now is not the time” for a second referendum because of the cost of living crisis, the Covid recovery and the war in Ukraine.

The supreme court is unlikely to rule on this question before its summer break on 29 July, but many constitutional lawyers believe it will decide it would be unlawful for Holyrood to stage such a vote without section 30 powers.

The court could also refuse to make any ruling until the bill has been passed by Holyrood, which would put Sturgeon’s target date of 19 October 2023 under significant pressure.

Opposition parties believe this is a risky strategy for the SNP, because it means that if Sturgeon loses this case, she cannot blame her opponents. Sturgeon is adamant that this strategy shows she is taking the initiative and showing leadership. It also means, however, that she has to take responsibility if the gambit fails.

What happens if it’s refused?


Sturgeon also told MSPs that the SNP would make the next UK general election “a de facto referendum” in which her party would be mandated to start independence talks with the UK government if it won a majority of votes.

This was instantly dismissed as “campaign rhetoric” by constitutional experts, who point out that an election does not have the same force or meaning as a referendum, and contradicts her previous insistence that such a vote should be legally and internationally recognised.

It is also politically risky. Until now, Sturgeon has consistently argued that every SNP election victory gave her party a mandate to call a referendum. It has won every election in Scotland since 2007, but only once come close to winning 50% of the vote, when it hit 49.97% in 2015.

Sturgeon’s opponents believe her proposal to hang the SNP’s entire election campaign on independence is a gift. It will energise Tory voters who oppose independence, and allow Labour, the Lib Dems and Tories to focus on domestic issues that she would sideline.

AI Disclaimer: An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system generated the content of this page on its own. This innovative technology conducts extensive research from a variety of reliable sources, performs rigorous fact-checking and verification, cleans up and balances biased or manipulated content, and presents a minimal factual summary that is just enough yet essential for you to function as an informed and educated citizen. Please keep in mind, however, that this system is an evolving technology, and as a result, the article may contain accidental inaccuracies or errors. We urge you to help us improve our site by reporting any inaccuracies you find using the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page. Your helpful feedback helps us improve our system and deliver more precise content. When you find an article of interest here, please look for the full and extensive coverage of this topic in traditional news sources, as they are written by professional journalists that we try to support, not replace. We appreciate your understanding and assistance.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Polish MEP: “Dear Leftists - China is laughing at you, Russia is laughing, India is laughing”
Western Europe Records Hottest June on Record
BRICS Expands Membership with Indonesia and Ten New Partner Countries
Elon Musk Founds a Party Following a Poll on X: "You Wanted It – You Got It!"
China’s Central Bank Consults European Peers on Low-Rate Strategies
France Requests Airlines to Cut Flights at Paris Airports Amid Planned Air Traffic Controller Strike
Poland Implements Border Checks Amid Growing Migration Tensions
Emirates Airline Expands Market Share with New $20 Million Campaign
Amazon Reaches Milestone with Deployment of One Millionth Robot
Yulia Putintseva Calls for Spectator Ejection at Wimbledon Over Safety Concerns
House Oversight Committee Subpoenas Former Jill Biden Aide Amid Investigation into Alleged Concealment of President Biden's Cognitive Health
Amazon Reaches Major Automation Milestone with Over One Million Robots
Extreme Heat Wave Sweeps Across Europe, Hitting Record Temperatures
Meta Announces Formation of Ambitious AI Unit, Meta Superintelligence Labs
Robots Compete in Football Tournament in China Amid Injuries
China Unveils Miniature Insect-Like Surveillance Drone
Marc Marquez Claims Victory at Dutch Grand Prix Amidst Family Misfortune
Germany Votes to Suspend Family Reunification for Asylum Seekers
Budapest Pride Parade Draws 200,000 Participants Amid Government Ban
Southern Europe Experiences Extreme Heat
Xiaomi's YU7 SUV Launch Garners Record Pre-Orders Amid Market Challenges
Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sanchez's Lavish Wedding in Venice
Russia Launches Largest Air Assault on Ukraine Since Invasion
Massive Anti-Government Protests Erupt in Belgrade
Iran Executes Alleged Israeli Spies and Arrests Hundreds Amid Post-War Crackdown
Hungary's Prime Minister Criticizes NATO's Role in Ukraine
EU TO HUNGARY: LET THEM PRIDE OR PREP FOR SHADE. ORBÁN TO EU: STAY IN YOUR LANE AND FIX YOUR OWN MESS.
Hungarian Scientist to Conduct 30 Research Experiments on the International Space Station
NATO Members Agree to 5% Defense Spending Target by 2035
NATO Leaders Endorse Plan for Increased Defence Spending
U.S. Crude Oil Prices Drop Below $65 Amid Market Volatility
International Astronaut Team Launched to Space Station
Macron and Merz: Europe must arm itself in an unstable world
Germany and Italy Under Pressure to Repatriate $245bn of Gold from US Vaults
Iran Intensifies Crackdown on Alleged Mossad Operatives After Sabotage Claims
Trump Praises Iran’s ‘Very Weak’ Response After U.S. Strikes and Presses Israel to Pursue Peace
Oil Prices Set to Surge After US Strikes Iran
BA and Singapore Airlines Cancel Dubai Flights Amid Middle East Tensions
Trump Faces Backlash from MAGA Base Over Iran Strikes
Meta Bets $14 B on Alexandr Wang to Drive AI Ambitions
FedEx Founder Fred Smith, ‘Heart and Soul’ of the Company, Dies at 80
Chinese Factories Shift Away from U.S. Amid Trump‑Era Tariffs
Pimco Seizes Opportunity in Japan’s Dislocated Bond Market
Labubu Doll Drives Pop Mart to Status as China’s Most Valuable Toy Maker
Global Coal Demand Defies Paris Accord Goals
United States Conducts Precision Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Sites
US strikes Iran nuclear sites, Trump says
Telegram Founder: I Will Leave My Fortune to Over 100 of My Children
16 Billion Login Credentials Leaked in Unprecedented Cybersecurity Breach
Senate hearing on who was 'really running' Biden White House kicks off
×