Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

To Join NATO Or Not: Finland Gears Up For "Historic" Decision

To Join NATO Or Not: Finland Gears Up For "Historic" Decision

Finland has traditionally been militarily non-aligned, in part to avoid provoking its eastern neighbour, with which it shares a 1,300 kilometre (830 mile) border.

Finland is preparing for a potentially historic decision "before midsummer" on whether to apply to join NATO as a deterrent against Russian aggression.

The Nordic nation of 5.5 million has traditionally been militarily non-aligned, in part to avoid provoking its eastern neighbour, with which it shares a 1,300 kilometre (830 mile) border.

But Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24 saw public support for joining NATO double from 30 to 60 percent, according to a series of polls.

"Never underestimate the capacity of Finns to take rapid decisions when the world changes," former Finnish prime minister Alexander Stubb told AFP.

Himself a long-time NATO advocate, Stubb now believes Finland making a membership application is "a foregone conclusion" as Finns re-evaluate their relationship with their neighbour.

Next week a government-commissioned national security review will be delivered to parliament, the Eduskunta, to help Finnish MPs make up their own minds, before it is put to a vote.

"We will have very careful discussions but not taking any more time than we have to," Prime Minister Sanna Marin told a news conference on Friday.

"I think we will end the discussion before midsummer," she added.

"My guess is that the application will be filed sometime during the month of May" in time for the June NATO summit in Madrid, Stubb said.

Change of heart


Finland declared independence in 1917 after 150 years of Russian rule, only for its vastly outnumbered army to fight off an attempted Soviet invasion during the Second World War inflicting heavy losses on the Red Army.

Hostilities ended in a peace deal that saw Finland ceding several border areas to the Soviet Union.

Finnish leaders agreed to remain neutral during the Cold War in exchange for guarantees from Moscow that it would not invade.

The country's forced neutrality to appease its stronger neighbour coined the term "Finlandization".

Finland has remained outside the transatlantic military alliance, and despite some cuts after the Cold War it has focused on maintaining well-funded defence and preparedness capabilities.

"We're able to mobilise 280,000 to 300,000 men and women within a matter of days," Stubb said, adding that 900,000 reserves could also be called up.

Last week Finland's government agreed a 40-percent hike in defence spending by 2026, to further strengthen the country's position.

"We have walked a long way when it comes to our security policies, and they have worked so far," said Centre Party MP Joonas Kontta.

Like the majority of his parliamentary colleagues, the 32-year-old used to think that NATO membership was "something that we don't need at the moment".

But Russia's invasion "changed something in Europe in a way that can't be changed back", he told AFP, and Kontta recently announced that he now believes it is time to seek to join the alliance.

A number of MPs have also recently announced similar changes of heart regarding Finland's "NATO question" -- although many more are keeping their positions to themselves awaiting more detailed discussions.

Anti-NATO minority


Only six of Finland's 200 MPs in a recent poll by public broadcaster Yle openly voiced anti-NATO views, including Markus Mustajarvi from the Left Alliance party

Finland and Sweden's non-alignment "has brought stability to the whole of Northern Europe", the Lapland MP told AFP.

Mustajarvi questions whether NATO's Article 5 commitment to mutual defence would provide genuine protection in case of an attack.

Instead he cites Finland's own defence capabilities which are "so strong that they would force Russia to think what price it would pay for attacking".

Despite receiving "all sorts of feedback" from the public and his fellow MPs over his stance, Mustajarvi insists he has "thought this through to the end and so far I don't see a reason to change my position".

Grey zone


Since Russia's attack, Finland's leadership has undertaken an intensive series of talks to canvass opinion from other NATO states about a possible membership bid.

Along with neighbouring Sweden, Finland has received public assurances from secretary general Jens Stoltenberg that the alliance's door remains open, as well as expressions of support from numerous members including the US, UK, Germany, France and Turkey.

But attempting to join NATO would likely be seen as a provocation by the Kremlin, for whom the expansion of the US-led alliance on its borders has been a prime security grievance.

Finland's president Sauli Niinisto has warned that Russia's response could be "on the brash side", including airspace, territorial violations and hybrid attacks.

The Kremlin has pledged to "rebalance the situation" in the event of Finland joining NATO.

Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto has acknowledged that Russia could seek to destabilise a membership bid during the "grey zone" between an application and its ratification by all 30 NATO states, which could take four months to a year.

"Finland has always tried to stay away from the grey zone," Stubb said, but he believes that Finland has the resilience to withstand potential Russian aggression or hybrid attacks.

AI Disclaimer: An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system generated the content of this page on its own. This innovative technology conducts extensive research from a variety of reliable sources, performs rigorous fact-checking and verification, cleans up and balances biased or manipulated content, and presents a minimal factual summary that is just enough yet essential for you to function as an informed and educated citizen. Please keep in mind, however, that this system is an evolving technology, and as a result, the article may contain accidental inaccuracies or errors. We urge you to help us improve our site by reporting any inaccuracies you find using the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page. Your helpful feedback helps us improve our system and deliver more precise content. When you find an article of interest here, please look for the full and extensive coverage of this topic in traditional news sources, as they are written by professional journalists that we try to support, not replace. We appreciate your understanding and assistance.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Vatican hosts first Catholic LGBTQ pilgrimage
Apple Unveils iPhone 17 Series, iPhone Air, Apple Watch 11 and More at 'Awe Dropping' Event
France joins Eurozone’s ‘periphery’ as turmoil deepens, say investors
France Faces New Political Crisis, again, as Prime Minister Bayrou Pushed Out
Nayib Bukele Points Out Belgian Hypocrisy as Brussels Considers Sending Army into the Streets
France, at an Impasse, Heads Toward Another Government Collapse
The Country That Got Too Rich? Public Spending Dominates Norway Election
EU Proposes Phasing Out Russian Oil and Gas by End of 2027 to End Energy Dependence
More Than 150,000 Followers for a Fictional Character: The New Influencers Are AI Creations
EU Prepares for War
Trump Threatens Retaliatory Tariffs After EU Imposes €2.95 Billion Fine on Google
Tesla Board Proposes Unprecedented One-Trillion-Dollar Performance Package for Elon Musk
Gold Could Reach Nearly $5,000 if Fed Independence Is Undermined, Goldman Sachs Warns
Uruguay, Colombia and Paraguay Secure Places at 2026 World Cup
Trump Administration Advances Plans to Rebrand Pentagon as Department of War Instead of the Fake Term Department of Defense
Big Tech Executives Laud Trump at White House Dinner, Unveil Massive U.S. Investments
Tether Expands into Gold Sector with Profit-Driven Diversification
‘Looks Like a Wig’: Online Users Express Concern Over Kate Middleton
Florida’s Vaccine Revolution: DeSantis Declares War on Mandates
Trump’s New War – and the ‘Drug Tyrant’ Fearing Invasion: ‘1,200 Missiles Aimed at Us’
"The Situation Has Never Been This Bad": The Fall of PepsiCo
At the Parade in China: Laser Weapons, 'Eagle Strike,' and a Missile Capable of 'Striking Anywhere in the World'
The Fashion Designer Who Became an Italian Symbol: Giorgio Armani Has Died at 91
Putin Celebrates ‘Unprecedentedly High’ Ties with China as Gazprom Seals Power of Siberia-2 Deal
China Unveils New Weapons in Grand Military Parade as Xi Hosts Putin and Kim
Rapper Cardi B Cleared of Liability in Los Angeles Civil Assault Trial
Google Avoids Break-Up in U.S. Antitrust Case as Stocks Rise
Couple celebrates 80th wedding anniversary at assisted living facility in Lancaster
Information Warfare in the Age of AI: How Language Models Become Targets and Tools
The White House on LinkedIn Has Changed Their Profile Picture to Donald Trump
"Insulted the Prophet Muhammad": Woman Burned Alive by Angry Mob in Niger State, Nigeria
Trump Responds to Death Rumors – Announces 'Missile City'
Druzhba Pipeline Incident Sparks Geopolitical Tensions
Cost of Opposition Leader Péter Magyar's Economic Plan Revealed
Germany in Turmoil: Ukrainian Teenage Girl Pushed to Death by Illegal Iraqi Migrant
United Krack down on human rights: Graham Linehan Arrested at Heathrow Over Three X Posts, Hospitalised, Released on Bail with Posting Ban
Asian and Middle Eastern Investors Avoid US Markets
Ray Dalio Warns of US Shift to Autocracy
Eurozone Inflation Rises to 2.1% in August
Russia and China Sign New Gas Pipeline Deal
Von der Leyen's Plane Hit by Suspected Russian GPS Interference in an Incident Believed to Be Caused by Russia or by Pro-Peace or by Anti-Corruption European Activists
China's Robotics Industry Fuels Export Surge
Suntory Chairman Resigns After Police Probe
Gold Price Hits New All-Time Record
UK Fintechs Explore Buying US Banks
Greece Suspends 5% of Schools as Birth Rate Drops
Apollo to Launch $5 Billion Sports Investment Vehicle
Bolsonaro Trial Nears Close Amid US-Brazil Tension
European Banks Push for Lower Cross-Border Barriers
Poland's Offshore Wind Sector Attracts Investors
×