Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

Putin will not survive a failed war in Ukraine

Putin will not survive a failed war in Ukraine

Vladimir Putin has had a very bad week. His army, allegedly refurbished after its poor performance in the war against Georgia in 2008, has failed to deliver the promised blitzkrieg. It has launched a brutal bombardment of Kharkhiv, Ukraine’s second largest city, full of Russian-speakers who were supposed to welcome Putin's soldiers as liberators. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s capital Kiev, which Russians like to call 'the mother of Russian cities', looks as if it is about to suffer the same fate.
The Ukrainians are fighting more fiercely than anyone had expected, perhaps even than they themselves. And they are winning the information war, out-hacking and out-twittering Putin’s people in the most ingenious ways. They may lose the battle if Putin unleashes all his power against them. But they are forging their identity in war, and when it is over no Russian will be able to say, as Putin did, that Ukraine does not exist as a nation.

The West, which Putin had dismissed as decadent and disunited, has delivered punishing blows to his economy, and his people are already feeling the consequences. He has brought about a revolution in German policy. The despised European Union (Putin called it a 'hamster') has taken a wholly unprecedented step by financing arms supplies to Kiev. Even Putin’s erstwhile Hungarian admirer, Viktor Orban, now remembers how he opposed the Russian invaders in Budapest in 1956, and has stuck with his fellow Europeans.

Leaders do not long survive failed wars, whether they are democrats or autocrats. Do Putin’s soldiers have the will to kill their brother Slavs in the necessary numbers if he turns desperate and orders them to crush Ukraine as bloodily as he crushed Chechnya? What about the intelligence agencies? Or the able people in charge of the Russian banking and the economic system who are striving desperately to keep things on an even keel? What about the ordinary people, happy as long as they thought Putin was Making Russia Great Again, but concerned above all just to live their everyday lives in peace?

It’s argued that no one can effectively oppose Putin because he has ruthlessly destroyed the independence of the pillars of the Russian state. History argues otherwise. The army, the intelligence agencies, and the Communist party (in those days the same thing as the government), did successfully combine to get rid of Soviet boss Nikita Khrushchev after he had failed in peace as well as in war. Much has changed since then. But Putin must surely lie awake at nights worrying that history could repeat itself..

The common view that the Russian army doesn’t get involved in politics is wrong. Russia has never had a military dictatorship. But the army has been involved through the centuries in many attempts – mostly successful – to remove the head of state.

Today the top Russian generals are serious professionals. Their most important task is to manage Russia’s nuclear arsenal. They have always believed that things would spin out of control once the first nuclear weapon was fired. And yet when Putin ordered them to raise the nuclear alert, he publicly humiliated his defence minister and his chief of staff on television, men wearing a respected uniform.

It would be surprising if they didn’t go back to their offices wondering what to do next. The Chairman of the American Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Miller, took some unorthodox steps to keep the nuclear weapon under control as an apparently unhinged ex-president Trump tried to hold on to office. Putin cannot be sure his generals won’t do something similar.

Many dictators have lost their jobs because they were deserted by their security guards. At one time a coup by the Pretorian Guard was the standard method of getting rid of a superfluous Roman emperor. Russian secret policemen do not always have it all their own way. Beria, the head of the KGB, did not survive the succession struggle after Stalin died. But usually the secret policemen outlast the regime that employs them by offering their services to its successor.

That’s what happened when the Bolsheviks took over from the Tsar, when the Ayatollahs took over from the Shah, and indeed when the Soviet Union was replaced by Russia. Putin’s secret policemen will aim to be be there after he goes.

These people – the soldiers, the spies, the economic managers, ordinary Russians – may have loyalties to the past. But they have an eye on the future as well. None of them can be immune to the thought that Putin is losing his grip on reality to an extent which endangers each and every one of them. If the ship begins to look like keeling over, the patter of tiny rodent feet could become deafening quite quickly.
AI Disclaimer: An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system generated the content of this page on its own. This innovative technology conducts extensive research from a variety of reliable sources, performs rigorous fact-checking and verification, cleans up and balances biased or manipulated content, and presents a minimal factual summary that is just enough yet essential for you to function as an informed and educated citizen. Please keep in mind, however, that this system is an evolving technology, and as a result, the article may contain accidental inaccuracies or errors. We urge you to help us improve our site by reporting any inaccuracies you find using the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page. Your helpful feedback helps us improve our system and deliver more precise content. When you find an article of interest here, please look for the full and extensive coverage of this topic in traditional news sources, as they are written by professional journalists that we try to support, not replace. We appreciate your understanding and assistance.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
16 Billion Login Credentials Leaked in Unprecedented Cybersecurity Breach
Senate hearing on who was 'really running' Biden White House kicks off
Hungary Ranked Among the World’s Safest Travel Destinations for 2025
G7 Leaders Fail to Reach Consensus on Key Global Issues
FBI and Senate Investigate Allegations of Chinese Plot to Influence the 2020 Election in Biden’s Favor Using Fake U.S. Driver’s Licenses
Trump Demands Iran's Unconditional Surrender Amid Escalating Conflict
Shock Within Iran’s Leadership: Khamenei’s Failed Plan to Launch 1,000 Missiles Against Israel
Wreck of $17 Billion San José Galleon Identified Off Colombia After 300 Years
Man Convicted of Fraud After Booking Over 120 Free Flights Posing as Flight Attendant
Iran Launches Extensive Missile Attack on Israel Following Israeli Strikes on Nuclear Sites
Beata Thunberg Rebrands as Beata Ernman Amidst Sister's Activism Controversy
Hungarian Parliament Approves Citizenship Suspension Law
Prime Minister Orbán Criticizes EU's Ukraine Accession Plans
Hungarian Delicacies Introduced to Japanese Market
Hungary's Industrial Output Rises Amid Battery Sector Slump
President Sulyok Celebrates 15 Years of Hungarian Unity Efforts
Hungary's Szeleczki Shines at World Judo Championships
Visegrád Construction Trends Diverge as Hungary Lags
Hungary Hosts National Quantum Technology Workshop
Hungarian Animation Featured at Annecy Festival
Israel Issues Ultimatum to Iran Over Potential Retaliation and Nuclear Facilities
UK and EU Reach New Economic Agreement
Coinbase CEO Warns Bitcoin Could Supplant US Dollar Amid Mounting National Debt
Trump to Iran: Make a Deal — Sign or Die
Operation "Like a Lion": Israel Strikes Iran in Unprecedented Offensive
Israel Launches 'Operation Rising Lion' Targeting Iranian Nuclear and Military Sites
UK and EU Reach Agreement on Gibraltar's Schengen Integration
Israeli Finance Minister Imposes Banking Penalties on Palestinians
U.S. Inflation Rises to 2.4% in May Amid Trade Tensions
Trump's Policies Prompt Decline in Chinese Student Enrollment in U.S.
Global Oceans Near Record Temperatures as CO₂ Levels Climb
Trump Announces U.S.-China Trade Deal Covering Rare Earths
Smuggled U.S. Fuel Funds Mexican Cartels Amid Crackdown
Austrian School Shooting Leaves Nine Dead in Graz
Bezos's Lavish Venice Wedding Sparks Local Protests
Europe Prepares for Historic Lunar Rover Landing
Italian Parents Seek Therapy Amid Lengthy School Holidays
British Fishing Vessel Seized by France Fined €30,000
Dutch Government Collapses Amid Migration Policy Dispute
UK Commits to 3.5% GDP Defence Spending Under NATO Pressure
Germany Moves to Expedite Migrant Deportations
US Urges UK to Raise Defence Spending to 5% of GDP
Israeli Forces Intercept Gaza-Bound Aid Vessel Carrying Greta Thunberg
IMF Warns of Severe Global Trade War Impacts on Emerging Markets
Low Turnout Jeopardizes Italy's Citizenship Reform Referendum
Transatlantic Interest Rate Divergence Widens as Trump Pressures Powell
EU Lawmaker Calls for Broader Exemptions in Supply Chain Legislation
France's Defense Spending Plans Threatened by High National Debt
European Small-Cap Stocks Outperform U.S. Rivals Amid Growth Revival
Switzerland Proposes $26 Billion Capital Increase for UBS
×