Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

Putin will not survive a failed war in Ukraine

Putin will not survive a failed war in Ukraine

Vladimir Putin has had a very bad week. His army, allegedly refurbished after its poor performance in the war against Georgia in 2008, has failed to deliver the promised blitzkrieg. It has launched a brutal bombardment of Kharkhiv, Ukraine’s second largest city, full of Russian-speakers who were supposed to welcome Putin's soldiers as liberators. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s capital Kiev, which Russians like to call 'the mother of Russian cities', looks as if it is about to suffer the same fate.
The Ukrainians are fighting more fiercely than anyone had expected, perhaps even than they themselves. And they are winning the information war, out-hacking and out-twittering Putin’s people in the most ingenious ways. They may lose the battle if Putin unleashes all his power against them. But they are forging their identity in war, and when it is over no Russian will be able to say, as Putin did, that Ukraine does not exist as a nation.

The West, which Putin had dismissed as decadent and disunited, has delivered punishing blows to his economy, and his people are already feeling the consequences. He has brought about a revolution in German policy. The despised European Union (Putin called it a 'hamster') has taken a wholly unprecedented step by financing arms supplies to Kiev. Even Putin’s erstwhile Hungarian admirer, Viktor Orban, now remembers how he opposed the Russian invaders in Budapest in 1956, and has stuck with his fellow Europeans.

Leaders do not long survive failed wars, whether they are democrats or autocrats. Do Putin’s soldiers have the will to kill their brother Slavs in the necessary numbers if he turns desperate and orders them to crush Ukraine as bloodily as he crushed Chechnya? What about the intelligence agencies? Or the able people in charge of the Russian banking and the economic system who are striving desperately to keep things on an even keel? What about the ordinary people, happy as long as they thought Putin was Making Russia Great Again, but concerned above all just to live their everyday lives in peace?

It’s argued that no one can effectively oppose Putin because he has ruthlessly destroyed the independence of the pillars of the Russian state. History argues otherwise. The army, the intelligence agencies, and the Communist party (in those days the same thing as the government), did successfully combine to get rid of Soviet boss Nikita Khrushchev after he had failed in peace as well as in war. Much has changed since then. But Putin must surely lie awake at nights worrying that history could repeat itself..

The common view that the Russian army doesn’t get involved in politics is wrong. Russia has never had a military dictatorship. But the army has been involved through the centuries in many attempts – mostly successful – to remove the head of state.

Today the top Russian generals are serious professionals. Their most important task is to manage Russia’s nuclear arsenal. They have always believed that things would spin out of control once the first nuclear weapon was fired. And yet when Putin ordered them to raise the nuclear alert, he publicly humiliated his defence minister and his chief of staff on television, men wearing a respected uniform.

It would be surprising if they didn’t go back to their offices wondering what to do next. The Chairman of the American Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Miller, took some unorthodox steps to keep the nuclear weapon under control as an apparently unhinged ex-president Trump tried to hold on to office. Putin cannot be sure his generals won’t do something similar.

Many dictators have lost their jobs because they were deserted by their security guards. At one time a coup by the Pretorian Guard was the standard method of getting rid of a superfluous Roman emperor. Russian secret policemen do not always have it all their own way. Beria, the head of the KGB, did not survive the succession struggle after Stalin died. But usually the secret policemen outlast the regime that employs them by offering their services to its successor.

That’s what happened when the Bolsheviks took over from the Tsar, when the Ayatollahs took over from the Shah, and indeed when the Soviet Union was replaced by Russia. Putin’s secret policemen will aim to be be there after he goes.

These people – the soldiers, the spies, the economic managers, ordinary Russians – may have loyalties to the past. But they have an eye on the future as well. None of them can be immune to the thought that Putin is losing his grip on reality to an extent which endangers each and every one of them. If the ship begins to look like keeling over, the patter of tiny rodent feet could become deafening quite quickly.
AI Disclaimer: An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system generated the content of this page on its own. This innovative technology conducts extensive research from a variety of reliable sources, performs rigorous fact-checking and verification, cleans up and balances biased or manipulated content, and presents a minimal factual summary that is just enough yet essential for you to function as an informed and educated citizen. Please keep in mind, however, that this system is an evolving technology, and as a result, the article may contain accidental inaccuracies or errors. We urge you to help us improve our site by reporting any inaccuracies you find using the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page. Your helpful feedback helps us improve our system and deliver more precise content. When you find an article of interest here, please look for the full and extensive coverage of this topic in traditional news sources, as they are written by professional journalists that we try to support, not replace. We appreciate your understanding and assistance.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
IMF Upgrades Global Growth Forecast as Weaker Dollar Supports Outlook
House Republicans Move to Defund OECD Over Global Tax Dispute
France Opens Criminal Investigation into X Over Algorithm Manipulation Allegations
Trump Steamrolls EU in Landmark Trade Win: US–EU Trade Deal Imposes 15% Tariff on European Imports
ChatGPT CEO Sam Altman says people share personal info with ChatGPT but don’t know chats can be used as court evidence in legal cases.
Intel Reports Revenue Beats but Sees 81% Rise in Losses
Politics is a good business: Barack Obama’s Reported Net Worth Growth, 1990–2025
UN's Top Court Declares Environmental Protection a Legal Obligation Under International Law
"Crazy Thing": OpenAI's Sam Altman Warns Of AI Voice Fraud Crisis In Banking
The Podcaster Who Accidentally Revealed He Earns Over $10 Million a Year
UK Government Considers Dropping Demand for Apple Encryption Backdoor
Japanese Man Discovers Family Connection Through DNA Testing After Decades of Separation
Russia Signals Openness to Ukraine Peace Talks Amid Escalating Drone Warfare
Switzerland Implements Ban on Mammography Screening
Pogacar Extends Dominance with Stage Fifteen Triumph at Tour de France
President Trump Diagnosed with Chronic Venous Insufficiency After Leg Swelling
CEO Resigns Amid Controversy Over Relationship with HR Executive
NVIDIA Achieves $4 Trillion Valuation Amid AI Demand
Tulsi Gabbard Unveils Evidence Alleging Political Manipulation of Intelligence During Trump Administration
Centrist Criticism of von der Leyen Resurfaces as she Survives EU Confidence Vote
Trump Announces Coca-Cola to Shift to Cane Sugar in U.S. Production
FIFA Pressured to Rethink World Cup Calendar Due to Climate Change
Zelensky Reshuffles Cabinet to Win Support at Home and in Washington
"Can You Hit Moscow?" Trump Asked Zelensky To Make Putin "Feel The Pain"
Church of England Removes 1991 Sexuality Guidelines from Clergy Selection
Superman Franchise Achieves Success with Latest Release
Hungary's Viktor Orban Rejects Agreements on Illegal Migration
Air India Pilot’s Mental Health Records Under Scrutiny
Jamie Dimon Warns Europe Is Losing Global Competitiveness and Flags Market Complacency
Moonshot AI Unveils Kimi K2: A New Open-Source AI Model
Martha Wells Says Humanity Still Far from True Artificial Intelligence
Nvidia Becomes World’s First Four‑Trillion‑Dollar Company Amid AI Boom
EU Delays Retaliatory Tariffs Amid New U.S. Threats on Imports
Trump Proposes Supplying Arms to Ukraine Through NATO Allies
US Opens First Rare Earth Mine in Over 70 Years in Wyoming
Bitcoin Reaches New Milestone of $116,000
Severe Heatwave Claims 2,300 Lives Across Europe
Declining Beer Consumption Signals Cultural Shift in Germany
Emails Leaked: How Passenger Luggage Became a Side Income for Airport Workers
Polish MEP: “Dear Leftists - China is laughing at you, Russia is laughing, India is laughing”
Western Europe Records Hottest June on Record
BRICS Expands Membership with Indonesia and Ten New Partner Countries
Elon Musk Founds a Party Following a Poll on X: "You Wanted It – You Got It!"
China’s Central Bank Consults European Peers on Low-Rate Strategies
France Requests Airlines to Cut Flights at Paris Airports Amid Planned Air Traffic Controller Strike
Poland Implements Border Checks Amid Growing Migration Tensions
Emirates Airline Expands Market Share with New $20 Million Campaign
Amazon Reaches Milestone with Deployment of One Millionth Robot
Yulia Putintseva Calls for Spectator Ejection at Wimbledon Over Safety Concerns
House Oversight Committee Subpoenas Former Jill Biden Aide Amid Investigation into Alleged Concealment of President Biden's Cognitive Health
×