Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

Hong Kong Assets Turn Toxic as Trade War and Protests Cloud Outlook

Hong Kong Assets Turn Toxic as Trade War and Protests Cloud Outlook

Investor anxiety is visible just about everywhere in Hong Kong’s markets as recession warnings and escalating protests strain sentiment to breaking point.

While most of the world recovered Tuesday from a yuan-induced meltdown, Hong Kong saw the biggest spike in interbank rates in more than a decade, the longest stretch of equity declines since 1984 and the wildest stock swings in four years. Bears reloaded on the local dollar in a way not seen since 2017, betting it will soon break through the weak end of its trading band.

The threat from the trade war and weeks of local unrest is already showing in the property market, as well as tourist numbers, hotel occupancy and retail sales. A weak yuan is another cause for concern, as it will damp spending from mainland visitors and pressure earnings for firms that rely on China. Profits for members of the Hang Seng Index are forecast to drop the most since the global financial crisis this year, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The gauge fell as much as 0.4% Wednesday, despite an overnight rally in the U.S. The MSCI Hong Kong Index lost 0.2%, on track for an 11th day of declines.

“There is risk-off sentiment in general,” said Michael Liang, chief investment officer at Foundation Asset Management (HK) Ltd. “Hong Kong’s political risk is definitely a part of it. Fewer people are willing to invest in the city’s assets.”

In some of the Chinese government’s strongest comments yet on the unrest that’s gripped the Asian financial hub since June, officials on Tuesday urged Hong Kong citizens to stand up to protesters. That followed Monday’s general strike that led to traffic chaos, violence, tear gas and flight cancellations in the most disruptive day since the protests started.

A QuickTake on why Hong Kong is protesting

The MSCI Hong Kong Index -- which unlike the more widely-used Hang Seng gauge doesn’t include Chinese heavyweights -- is suffering its worst stretch of losses since 1984. That was the year U.K. Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and Chinese Premier Zhao Ziyang signed the Sino-British Joint Declaration in Beijing, committing to some of the terms for the handover of Hong Kong in 1997.

Hong Kong’s currency, while pegged to the greenback, is also influenced by the yuan due to the city’s close economic ties with China. It fell the most in more than three-and-a-half years Monday, tracking losses across Asia. The Hong Kong dollar’s 12-month forward points briefly spiked to 163 Tuesday, in a sign that some global hedge funds may betting against the currency. That was the highest level since early 2017.

The moves are affecting local borrowing costs, which underpin mortgages in one of the world’s least affordable housing markets. The rates are already facing pressure from tightening liquidity, which sent some tenors to decade-highs last month. One-month Hong Kong dollar interbank rates, known as Hibor, jumped the most since 2008 Tuesday.

Rates have remained ultra-low in Hong Kong since the financial crisis, while a huge amount of cash sloshing around in the financial system has helped fuel rallies in the stock and property markets. Now, stocks are falling and data last week showed July home sales fell 32% in value from a year earlier, while volume was down 21%.

And it could get worse: market watchers have warned home prices and retail rents may fall in the short term because of recent political unrest. A residential site was sold last month in a government tender for HK$11,842 ($1,511) per square foot -- the lowest price in more than two years. A purchasing-managers index fell to the lowest since March 2009 in July, signaling a contraction for a 16th month.

Hong Kong has a track record of resilience in the face of crises. From Asia’s financial implosion during the late 1990s to the SARS outbreak in 2003 and the global credit crunch of 2008, the city has always found a way to come out stronger.

That doesn’t mean a turnaround is near, however. The recent turmoil is making it almost impossible for investors to discern the outlook for Hong Kong assets.

AI Disclaimer: An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system generated the content of this page on its own. This innovative technology conducts extensive research from a variety of reliable sources, performs rigorous fact-checking and verification, cleans up and balances biased or manipulated content, and presents a minimal factual summary that is just enough yet essential for you to function as an informed and educated citizen. Please keep in mind, however, that this system is an evolving technology, and as a result, the article may contain accidental inaccuracies or errors. We urge you to help us improve our site by reporting any inaccuracies you find using the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page. Your helpful feedback helps us improve our system and deliver more precise content. When you find an article of interest here, please look for the full and extensive coverage of this topic in traditional news sources, as they are written by professional journalists that we try to support, not replace. We appreciate your understanding and assistance.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Russia’s A7 Builds a State-Linked Payments Network Beyond Western Sanctions
AI’s Next Bottleneck Is Power, Not Just Nvidia Chips
Meta Raises AI Spending Target to as Much as $145bn Despite Pressure Over Returns
Danube Drought Exposes Nazi Wrecks and Pushes Central Europe’s Power System to the Brink
Joe Biden’s Cancer Has Spread Beyond His Bones, Hunter Biden Says
Why 2027 Could Be a Strong Year for Stocks—and Why the Forecast Is Fragile
Why Markets May Look Quiet in August After Big Tech Earnings
UK Drought Cuts Harvests and Raises Food-Security Fears
UFO: Pentagon Releases Video of Unidentified Object Tracked Over Middle East
Ukraine Tells Senate Republicans Its Drone War Offers a Blueprint for America
Weight-Loss Drug Boom Tests the Limits of Prescription Advertising Rules
Senate Scrutinises AI-Driven Personalised Pricing
Spain Seeks Mainland Transfers for 1,100 Children Stranded in Ceuta
Spain and Morocco Trade Blame After 72,000 Migrants Enter Ceuta
AI Is Remaking the US Economy, From GDP Growth to iPhone Prices
Europe’s Heat and Drought Are Now Disrupting Power, Shipping and Tourism
Europe’s Drying Rivers Trigger Power Cuts, Factory Shutdowns and Wildfire Emergencies
Record-Low Danube Forces Nuclear Cuts and Emergency Power Curbs
Danube Drought Forces Hungary’s Paks Nuclear Plant Into Full Shutdown
Ceuta Death Toll Rises as Spain and Europe Clash Over Border Response
Valued at $109 Million: F-35B Fighter Jet Crashes in Southern California
Record-Low Danube Exposes Probable Mammoth Remains in Bulgaria
US Says It Has Carried Out Heavy Strikes on Iran After Attempted Attacks on Its Forces
The AI User Nightmare: Private Claude Conversations Leaked to the Internet
Over 24 Hours in the Air: Qantas Airbus Completes Record-Breaking Test Flight
Massive Wildfires Ravage Southern Europe: Fatalities in Greece and Evacuations Across France, Spain, and Turkey
Nvidia Reportedly Takes Vast Texas Data-Centre Lease to Underwrite AI Expansion
FIFA’s Private-Investment Plan for World Cup Rights Draws European Revolt
Apple Briefly Crosses Five Trillion Dollar Valuation as Investors Retreat From AI Bets
Fresh Heatwave Threatens to Rekindle France’s Historic Wildfire Crisis
Following OpenAI's Cyberattack: 'Most Companies Still Do Not Understand What Is Coming'
OpenAI Sued After ChatGPT Allegedly Discouraged Emergency Care Before Near-Fatal Embolism
Miliband Sets Climate and International Law at Centre of UK Diplomacy
Czech Central Bank Governor Rejects Early Euro Entry and Rate-Cut Pressure
Trump Readies New Tariffs as Temporary Global Levy Nears Expiry
Vivienne Westwood Casts Cicciolina, 74, in Its New Autumn Campaign
Dejavu: Germany’s Military Expansion Reshapes Europe’s Strategic Balance With France
Morgan Stanley Builds a Wall Street Lead in AI Infrastructure Finance
High Prices Push Coffee Drinkers Toward Whole Beans and Home Brewing
Trump Draws Boos and Podium Scrutiny at Spain’s World Cup Triumph
Brilliant move: Péter Magyar Moves to Nominate Chess Grandmaster Judit Polgár as Hungary’s President
Spain Defeats Argentina in Extra Time to Win Second World Cup
Current AI Seeks to Build an Open Global AI Infrastructure Outside Big Tech Control
Germany’s Economic Malaise Reopens the Sunday Shopping Debate
Proposed U.S.-Saudi Nuclear Pact Could Permit Limited Uranium Enrichment Under International Safeguards
Netherlands Declares Water Shortage Emergency After Drought Pushes Rivers to Historic Lows
Why Kentucky Fried Chicken Became KFC—and Why the False Explanations Persist
Ukrainian Drones Strike Wildberries Warehouses Deep Inside Russia
Reported CIA Mission Helped Clear the UAE’s Path to Advanced US AI Chips
Artificial Intelligence Capital Fuels Markets While Governments and Regulators Face Mounting Strategic Tests
×