Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

UK: Another lockdown was inevitable. We have to get this one right

UK: Another lockdown was inevitable. We have to get this one right

Even with vaccines, we are entering a perilous new phase of the pandemic. Here are the measures that must be taken
A third lockdown for England was inevitable. Pressure on the NHS is growing as it deals with new infections from a variant of the coronavirus that scientists estimate is 50-70% more transmissible. New infections continue to climb past 50,000 each day, and daily deaths are in the hundreds. A few weeks ago, many felt optimistic that vaccines could return England to normal by the spring. Instead, it seems we are entering a dangerous new chapter of this pandemic.

It’s easy to feel frustrated by the government’s response to this pandemic, and wonder why it hasn’t acted sooner. Ministers wasted an opportunity to suppress the virus in the summer when cases were low, and instead chose to open up quickly and recklessly after the first national lockdown. The government subsidised people to eat out in restaurants and bars, and encouraged holidays abroad via “travel corridors” without any kind of testing or quarantine restrictions for when travellers returned.

It was always likely that, if uncontrolled, the virus that causes Covid-19 would mutate. High prevalence created more opportunities for a variant to emerge that now appears to be spreading at a worrying pace.Where does this leave the UK? Among scientists, optimism about several approved vaccines is tempered by serious concerns about the new variant, and what the next weeks have in store. Sage experts note that even with restrictions in place, it will be a challenge to stop the spread of this new variant over the next few weeks.

Several fringe scientists have argued that this builds a stronger case for the government to allow the virus to spread through younger, healthier members of the population. Aside from the opportunities this would create for more mutations to emerge, new data from Manaus, Brazil, shows just how catastrophic an uncontrolled epidemic would be.

An estimated 76% of people have been exposed to Covid-19, and the epidemic is still continuing. Applying age-specific infection fatality rates from Manaus, a 76% attack rate would mean 350,000 deaths in the UK and 1.58 million deaths in the US. Manaus has a particularly young population, so the fatality rate is likely lower there than it would be in the more elderly demographics of western Europe and North America.

The substantial rate of serious illness associated with Covid-19 also underlines the risks of exposing a large percentage of the population to a virus that is still not fully understood. Even a plan to allow the virus to run through the population would require restrictions, because the high rate of hospitalisation that results from Covid infections is dangerous to everyone.

If hospitals are full, patients of all stripes – whether they’re suffering from a heart attack or a road traffic injury – can’t get the necessary treatment. And without spare beds, Covid-19 patients can’t get access to the ICU care they need to stay alive.

The opposite response to this is what has been called a maximum suppression or “zero Covid” model. But at this stage, with the Office for National Statistics estimating that England is around 100,000 infections a day, and the new variant putting pressure on the NHS and the test-and-trace system, pursuing this strategy no longer seems feasible. The immediate priority should be surviving the next few months without the NHS collapsing, and planning for a robust response to eliminate Covid in the spring and summer.

Vaccinating as many people as quickly as possible will be key to this. The UK has decided to vaccinate more people with one dose rather than fewer people with two. This is an ethical and political judgment rather than a scientific one; waiting for follow-up doses to be delivered carries huge costs.

But vaccinating everyone will take time, which is why a national lockdown was necessary. Schools will be closed until mid-February, except for the most vulnerable children and those of essential workers. This will reduce community transmission and allow scientists to gather new evidence about the variant.

As always, mass testing and supported isolation are central to controlling the virus. Both during the lockdown and after these new restrictions are lifted, we should be testing people rapidly to identify those who are carriers, and ensuring those who must isolate have the resources – both financial and practical – to spend 10 days alone. That isolation is an act of goodwill is something the government has repeatedly overlooked during this pandemic, and those who are isolating need to be compensated for doing so.

The government has spent many months and billions of pounds on its testing-and-tracing strategy. So it’s surprising that, despite these efforts, its approach to visitors arriving from overseas is still so lax.

Preventing the import of Covid-19 cases and variants requires robust testing and quarantine procedures at our borders. Yet people are allowed in to the UK without a negative Covid test result, and pictures of crowding at airports – in contrast to the carefully planned approach of countries such as South Korea – do little to instil confidence in the safety of this approach.

Finally, and most importantly, we need to follow these new restrictions, continue to distance from each and avoid crowded spaces and public transport, wear face coverings, and do our best to avoid getting infected and passing the virus on.

We must deprive it of any opportunities to survive and infect others. In the spring, longer days and mass vaccinations will give us another chance to eliminate Covid and prepare for the coming winter. The UK’s health and economy depends upon it.
AI Disclaimer: An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system generated the content of this page on its own. This innovative technology conducts extensive research from a variety of reliable sources, performs rigorous fact-checking and verification, cleans up and balances biased or manipulated content, and presents a minimal factual summary that is just enough yet essential for you to function as an informed and educated citizen. Please keep in mind, however, that this system is an evolving technology, and as a result, the article may contain accidental inaccuracies or errors. We urge you to help us improve our site by reporting any inaccuracies you find using the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page. Your helpful feedback helps us improve our system and deliver more precise content. When you find an article of interest here, please look for the full and extensive coverage of this topic in traditional news sources, as they are written by professional journalists that we try to support, not replace. We appreciate your understanding and assistance.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Altman Says GPT-5 Already Outpaces Him, Warns AI Could Automate 40% of Work
Russian Research Vessel 'Yantar' Tracked Mapping Europe’s Subsea Cables, Raising Security Alarms
Global Cruise Industry Posts Dramatic Comeback with 34.6 Million Passengers in 2024
U.S. Demands Brussels Scrutinize Digital Rules to Prevent Bias Against American Tech
Private Equity’s Fundraising Surge Triggers Concern of European Market Shake-Out
Tokyo’s Jimbōchō Named World’s Coolest Neighbourhood for 2025
European Officials Fear Trump May Shift Blame for Ukraine War onto EU
The Personality Rights Challenge in India’s AI Era
Italy Considers Freezing Retirement Age at 67 to Avert Scheduled Hike
Italian City to Impose Tax on Visiting Dogs Starting in 2026
Study Finds No Safe Level of Alcohol for Dementia Risk
Trump Says Ukraine Can Fully Restore Borders with NATO Backing
Europe Signals Stronger Support for Taiwan at Major Taipei Defence Show
Germany Weighs Excluding France from Key European Fighter Jet Programme
Cyberattack Disrupts Check-in and Boarding Systems at Major European Airports
Björn Borg Breaks Silence: Memoir Reveals Addiction, Shame and Cancer Battle
When Extremism Hijacks Idealism: How the Baader-Meinhof Gang Emerged and Fell
JWST Data Brings TRAPPIST-1e Closer to Earth-Like Habitability
Trump Orders $100,000 Fee on H-1B Visas and Launches ‘Gold Card’ Immigration Pathway
France’s Looming Budget Crisis and Political Fracture Raise Fears of Becoming Europe’s “Sick Man”
Three Russian MiG-31 Jets Breach Estonian Airspace in ‘Unprecedentedly Brazen’ NATO Incident
European manufacturers against ban on polluting cars: "The industry may collapse"
Turkish car manufacturer Togg Enters German Market with 5-Star Electric Sedan and SUV to Challenge European EV Brands
Christian Brueckner Released from German Prison after Serving Unrelated Sentence
World’s Longest Direct Flight China Eastern to Launch 29-Hour Shanghai–Buenos Aires Direct Flight via Auckland in December
New OpenAI Study Finds Majority of ChatGPT Use Is Personal, Not Professional
The conservative right spreads westward: a huge achievement for 'Alternative for Germany' in local elections
Pope Leo Warns of Societal Crisis Over Mega-CEO Pay, Citing Tesla’s Proposed Trillion-Dollar Package
Poland Green-Lights NATO Deployment in Response to Major Russian Drone Incursion
U.S. and China Agree on Framework to Shift TikTok to American Ownership
Le Pen Tightens the Pressure on Macron as France Edges Toward Political Breakdown
Czech Republic signs €1.34 billion contract for Leopard 2A8 main battle tanks with delivery from 2028
Penske Media Sues Google Over “AI Overviews,” Claiming It Uses Journalism Without Consent and Destroys Traffic
Indian Student Engineers Propose “Project REBIRTH” to Protect Aircraft from Crashes Using AI, Airbags and Smart Materials
One in Three Europeans Now Uses TikTok, According to the Chinese Tech Giant
Could AI Nursing Robots Help Healthcare Staffing Shortages?
NATO Deploys ‘Eastern Sentry’ After Russian Drones Violate Polish Airspace
The New Life of Novak Djokovic
German police raid AfD lawmaker’s offices in inquiry over Chinese payments
Volkswagen launches aggressive strategy to fend off Chinese challenge in Europe’s EV market
France Erupts in Mass ‘Block Everything’ Protests on New PM’s First Day
Poland Shoots Down Russian Drones in Airspace Violation During Ukraine Attack
Apple Introduces Ultra-Thin iPhone Air, Enhanced 17 Series and New Health-Focused Wearables
Macron Appoints Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minister Amid Budget Crisis and Political Turmoil
Vatican hosts first Catholic LGBTQ pilgrimage
Apple Unveils iPhone 17 Series, iPhone Air, Apple Watch 11 and More at 'Awe Dropping' Event
France joins Eurozone’s ‘periphery’ as turmoil deepens, say investors
France Faces New Political Crisis, again, as Prime Minister Bayrou Pushed Out
Nayib Bukele Points Out Belgian Hypocrisy as Brussels Considers Sending Army into the Streets
France, at an Impasse, Heads Toward Another Government Collapse
×