Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

Emerging Markets on Edge as Goldman and Deutsche Bank Flag Risks

Emerging Markets on Edge as Goldman and Deutsche Bank Flag Risks

Emerging markets are heading toward the end of the third quarter with more reasons to be cautious than optimistic.

Developing-nation stocks, currencies and bonds had their worst week in the five days through Friday since the coronavirus pandemic rocked global markets in March. The gap between implied volatility in emerging-market currencies and their Group-of-Seven peers is at the widest since June amid concerns over renewed lockdown measures and delays to further U.S. fiscal stimulus.

Manufacturing reports from China, India, Brazil and South Africa that are being published this week are potentially less decisive for investors than the global sentiment toward risky assets. Investors are bracing for higher price swings around the U.S. November elections, with the first presidential debate between Donald Trump and challenger Joe Biden scheduled for Tuesday.



And they’re being encouraged to move to the sidelines. Deutsche Bank AG is taking a “more defensive stance” on emerging-market credit as it expects increased volatility from the U.S. election to fuel a selloff in risky assets. Never mind that the wave of central-bank stimulus and investors’ hunger for yield had lifted developing-nation dollar debt for five months.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is asking investors to put their money into high-yielding currencies, such as the Mexican peso, the South African rand and Russian ruble, but only “once the dust settles.” Expectations for swings in the those currencies against the greenback rose by the most among peers last week.

“With the broad dollar still volatile, and risks still in focus, it is likely too early to engage in fresh longs,” Goldman Sachs strategists, including New York-based Zach Pandl, wrote in a note.

Central banks in India and the Philippines are both forecast to keep interest rates on hold Thursday, as they balance the need for additional stimulus against a backdrop of rising market volatility. Turkey and Hungary unexpectedly increased borrowing costs last week to support their weakening currencies.

Rate Decisions


* Elevated inflationary pressures are likely to constrain the ability of the Reserve Bank of India to ease policy, according to Bernard Aw, principal economist at IHS Markit in Singapore. “We expect the central bank to continue to boost liquidity through other measures, such as cutting the cash reserve ratio,” he wrote in a research note
* The Philippine central bank may lower its benchmark by another 25 basis points, though it’s more likely to move in November or even later to have more impact as the economy reopens more fully, Citigroup Inc. economists including Johanna Chua in Hong Kong wrote in a report
* The Philippine peso is the best-performing emerging-market currency this year, gaining 4.5%, while the Indian rupee has fallen 3%
* Ghana will probably hold its key rate on Monday after the economy contracted less than forecast in the second quarter
* Kenya will also likely keep its interest rates unchanged on Tuesday, while policy makers in Angola will decide on Monday

* On Monday, Colombia’s central bank will release the minutes of its Sept. 25 meeting, when it cut the benchmark rate by a quarter point to 1.75%
* Urban unemployment figures for August, to be released on Wednesday, will probably show that after spiking earlier in the year, the jobless rate has stabilized

Data and Events


* China will release manufacturing numbers on Wednesday that are expected to show the nation’s economic recovery extended into September. The Caixin gauge of manufacturing is due the same day
* Profits at Chinese industrial enterprises grew for a fourth consecutive month, as the country’s factories maintained momentum following the pandemic shutdown
* The yuan has strengthened more than 3% this quarter, beating all its Asian peers
* South Korea will publish industrial production figures on Tuesday and trade data two days later. Exports are likely to see an annual gain in September, the first since the pandemic struck, but that will mainly reflect a higher number of working days rather than improving underling momentum, according to Bloomberg Economics
* The won is the top-performing EM currency after the yuan over the past month
* Malaysia will announce trade data on Monday, while Thailand will publish the same figures on Wednesday along with its current-account balance. Indonesia reports inflation data on Thursday
* Vietnam will report a slew of data on Tuesday, including gross domestic product and retail sales. The economy is one of the few in the region expected to avoid a contraction this year, according to the Asian Development Bank
* Data on Tuesday will probably show South Africa’s unemployment rate surged to a new record in the second quarter as lockdown restrictions forced many businesses to cut jobs to save costs, or close permanently
* The rand was the worst performer among peers last week after the Mexican peso
* Lebanon’s prime minister-designate stepped down on Saturday after failing to form a government, leaving the nation rudderless as it struggles to recover from a devastating explosion at its main port last month
* Saad Hariri, Lebanon’s former premier close to Saudi Arabia, said he won’t be a candidate to form a new government
* The nation’s Eurobonds gained 1.9% this month, the top performer in emerging markets after debt sold by Suriname and Malaysia, according to Bloomberg Barclays indexes
* In Argentina, investors will monitor the release of July economic activity for insight into how social distancing measures, capital controls and debt negotiations affected production. Government tax revenue data for September will be released on Friday
* Markets will continue to react to the imposition of tighter capital controls
* Chile is set to post August unemployment, retail sales and copper production figures on Wednesday as the economy starts to recover from the worst of the pandemic-driven recession. Thursday’s release of economic activity for August will complete the list of growth indicators
* Chile’s peso outperformed all of its emerging-market peers this quarter
* Brazil’s primary budget balance figures, expected on Wednesday, will probably show another month deep in the red, according to Bloomberg Economics. A positive reading of August industrial production data on Friday could help boost optimism for growth

AI Disclaimer: An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system generated the content of this page on its own. This innovative technology conducts extensive research from a variety of reliable sources, performs rigorous fact-checking and verification, cleans up and balances biased or manipulated content, and presents a minimal factual summary that is just enough yet essential for you to function as an informed and educated citizen. Please keep in mind, however, that this system is an evolving technology, and as a result, the article may contain accidental inaccuracies or errors. We urge you to help us improve our site by reporting any inaccuracies you find using the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page. Your helpful feedback helps us improve our system and deliver more precise content. When you find an article of interest here, please look for the full and extensive coverage of this topic in traditional news sources, as they are written by professional journalists that we try to support, not replace. We appreciate your understanding and assistance.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Altman Says GPT-5 Already Outpaces Him, Warns AI Could Automate 40% of Work
Russian Research Vessel 'Yantar' Tracked Mapping Europe’s Subsea Cables, Raising Security Alarms
Global Cruise Industry Posts Dramatic Comeback with 34.6 Million Passengers in 2024
U.S. Demands Brussels Scrutinize Digital Rules to Prevent Bias Against American Tech
Private Equity’s Fundraising Surge Triggers Concern of European Market Shake-Out
Tokyo’s Jimbōchō Named World’s Coolest Neighbourhood for 2025
European Officials Fear Trump May Shift Blame for Ukraine War onto EU
The Personality Rights Challenge in India’s AI Era
Italy Considers Freezing Retirement Age at 67 to Avert Scheduled Hike
Italian City to Impose Tax on Visiting Dogs Starting in 2026
Study Finds No Safe Level of Alcohol for Dementia Risk
Trump Says Ukraine Can Fully Restore Borders with NATO Backing
Europe Signals Stronger Support for Taiwan at Major Taipei Defence Show
Germany Weighs Excluding France from Key European Fighter Jet Programme
Cyberattack Disrupts Check-in and Boarding Systems at Major European Airports
Björn Borg Breaks Silence: Memoir Reveals Addiction, Shame and Cancer Battle
When Extremism Hijacks Idealism: How the Baader-Meinhof Gang Emerged and Fell
JWST Data Brings TRAPPIST-1e Closer to Earth-Like Habitability
Trump Orders $100,000 Fee on H-1B Visas and Launches ‘Gold Card’ Immigration Pathway
France’s Looming Budget Crisis and Political Fracture Raise Fears of Becoming Europe’s “Sick Man”
Three Russian MiG-31 Jets Breach Estonian Airspace in ‘Unprecedentedly Brazen’ NATO Incident
European manufacturers against ban on polluting cars: "The industry may collapse"
Turkish car manufacturer Togg Enters German Market with 5-Star Electric Sedan and SUV to Challenge European EV Brands
Christian Brueckner Released from German Prison after Serving Unrelated Sentence
World’s Longest Direct Flight China Eastern to Launch 29-Hour Shanghai–Buenos Aires Direct Flight via Auckland in December
New OpenAI Study Finds Majority of ChatGPT Use Is Personal, Not Professional
The conservative right spreads westward: a huge achievement for 'Alternative for Germany' in local elections
Pope Leo Warns of Societal Crisis Over Mega-CEO Pay, Citing Tesla’s Proposed Trillion-Dollar Package
Poland Green-Lights NATO Deployment in Response to Major Russian Drone Incursion
U.S. and China Agree on Framework to Shift TikTok to American Ownership
Le Pen Tightens the Pressure on Macron as France Edges Toward Political Breakdown
Czech Republic signs €1.34 billion contract for Leopard 2A8 main battle tanks with delivery from 2028
Penske Media Sues Google Over “AI Overviews,” Claiming It Uses Journalism Without Consent and Destroys Traffic
Indian Student Engineers Propose “Project REBIRTH” to Protect Aircraft from Crashes Using AI, Airbags and Smart Materials
One in Three Europeans Now Uses TikTok, According to the Chinese Tech Giant
Could AI Nursing Robots Help Healthcare Staffing Shortages?
NATO Deploys ‘Eastern Sentry’ After Russian Drones Violate Polish Airspace
The New Life of Novak Djokovic
German police raid AfD lawmaker’s offices in inquiry over Chinese payments
Volkswagen launches aggressive strategy to fend off Chinese challenge in Europe’s EV market
France Erupts in Mass ‘Block Everything’ Protests on New PM’s First Day
Poland Shoots Down Russian Drones in Airspace Violation During Ukraine Attack
Apple Introduces Ultra-Thin iPhone Air, Enhanced 17 Series and New Health-Focused Wearables
Macron Appoints Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minister Amid Budget Crisis and Political Turmoil
Vatican hosts first Catholic LGBTQ pilgrimage
Apple Unveils iPhone 17 Series, iPhone Air, Apple Watch 11 and More at 'Awe Dropping' Event
France joins Eurozone’s ‘periphery’ as turmoil deepens, say investors
France Faces New Political Crisis, again, as Prime Minister Bayrou Pushed Out
Nayib Bukele Points Out Belgian Hypocrisy as Brussels Considers Sending Army into the Streets
France, at an Impasse, Heads Toward Another Government Collapse
×