US Attitude Towards War in Ukraine Undergoes Drastic Change
Officials have stated that the US administration is working on a long-term strategic plan for Ukraine (despite current aid packages for the country being stalled in Congress). They also emphasized that the American stance does not expect the Ukrainians to recapture significant territories by 2024.
The focus of the current plan is not on regaining territory, but on helping Ukraine repel Russian attacks and, in the long term, strengthening the country's military strength and economy. The goal set by the West now is to prevent more Ukrainian territories (beyond the current one-fifth of the country) from falling into Russian hands and to continue operations that have been successful in recent times such as long-range strikes, pushing back the Russian Black Sea fleet, and tying down Russian forces stationed in Crimea with continuous rocket attacks and various sabotage actions.
The Washington Post noted that all this represents a drastic shift from Western plans last year. At that time, the emphasis was on the possibility of using new equipment provided to Ukraine to quickly recapture significant territories in Eastern and Southern Ukraine. However, the counter-offensive planned for the spring, which eventually started in the summer, got stuck in Russian fortifications.
That's why the Americans now want Ukraine to hold its front lines this year, get stronger by the end of 2024, and as one official put it place the country on a "more sustainable path" (both militarily and economically).
THE US THINKING IN 10-YEAR PLANS FOR UKRAINE
Alongside the United States, approximately three dozen other countries (as referred to by The Washington Post) are working on the same plan, and according to the newspaper, each country will document in detail their commitment to Ukraine for the next decade.
As they wrote, the British have already made this commitment last week, with the French expected to be next, as French President Emmanuel Macron is soon to visit Kyiv. The newspaper also believes that whether the West can support Ukraine successfully depends almost entirely on the United States, as they are the largest supporters by far and coordinate the international process in which other countries participate. The White House is expected to release its own 10-year plan this spring regarding support for Ukraine: the American foreign service is already working on the document but still requires the $61 billion that US President Joe Biden has requested from Congress for supporting Ukraine.
Officials believe that with the long-term commitment, they will once and for all ensure that Ukraine can be adequately supported against the Russians – even if Donald Trump, not Joe Biden, is in the White House after the 2024 presidential election.
ZELENSKYY SPEAKS DIFFERENTLY IN PUBLIC, BUT.
Contrary to the above, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a video message a few days ago that the 2024 plans are "not just about defense" and aim to maintain the initiative in the war.
However, American officials told The Washington Post that in private conversations, Zelenskyy actually acknowledged that he doesn't know to what extent he can set ambitious goals for this year, especially in light of the uncertain situation of American support.
In this regard, Ukrainian lawmaker Roman Kostenko told the newspaper:
"People keep asking us what our plan is, but we need to know what resources we will have. Everything seems to indicate that we will have less than last year when we attempted the counteroffensive and failed. If indeed we have less, then it's clear what the plan will be: to defend."
Serhiy Rakhmanin, another Ukrainian lawmaker, was more cautious, saying that offensive operations are not ruled out, but "it would be very difficult to imagine a serious, comprehensive strategic offensive in 2024," especially considering the current state of foreign support (including Europe as well as the United States).
Officials speaking to The Washington Post also said they expect the war to eventually end at the negotiating table, but they believe it is unlikely that Russian President Vladimir Putin would engage in credible negotiations this year (since, in their opinion, the Russian leader is hopeful that Donald Trump will win the 2024 election, which in turn could put Kyiv in a more difficult position).
The Washington Post noted that all this represents a drastic shift from Western plans last year. At that time, the emphasis was on the possibility of using new equipment provided to Ukraine to quickly recapture significant territories in Eastern and Southern Ukraine. However, the counter-offensive planned for the spring, which eventually started in the summer, got stuck in Russian fortifications.
That's why the Americans now want Ukraine to hold its front lines this year, get stronger by the end of 2024, and as one official put it place the country on a "more sustainable path" (both militarily and economically).
THE US THINKING IN 10-YEAR PLANS FOR UKRAINE
Alongside the United States, approximately three dozen other countries (as referred to by The Washington Post) are working on the same plan, and according to the newspaper, each country will document in detail their commitment to Ukraine for the next decade.
As they wrote, the British have already made this commitment last week, with the French expected to be next, as French President Emmanuel Macron is soon to visit Kyiv. The newspaper also believes that whether the West can support Ukraine successfully depends almost entirely on the United States, as they are the largest supporters by far and coordinate the international process in which other countries participate. The White House is expected to release its own 10-year plan this spring regarding support for Ukraine: the American foreign service is already working on the document but still requires the $61 billion that US President Joe Biden has requested from Congress for supporting Ukraine.
Officials believe that with the long-term commitment, they will once and for all ensure that Ukraine can be adequately supported against the Russians – even if Donald Trump, not Joe Biden, is in the White House after the 2024 presidential election.
ZELENSKYY SPEAKS DIFFERENTLY IN PUBLIC, BUT.
Contrary to the above, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a video message a few days ago that the 2024 plans are "not just about defense" and aim to maintain the initiative in the war.
However, American officials told The Washington Post that in private conversations, Zelenskyy actually acknowledged that he doesn't know to what extent he can set ambitious goals for this year, especially in light of the uncertain situation of American support.
In this regard, Ukrainian lawmaker Roman Kostenko told the newspaper:
"People keep asking us what our plan is, but we need to know what resources we will have. Everything seems to indicate that we will have less than last year when we attempted the counteroffensive and failed. If indeed we have less, then it's clear what the plan will be: to defend."
Serhiy Rakhmanin, another Ukrainian lawmaker, was more cautious, saying that offensive operations are not ruled out, but "it would be very difficult to imagine a serious, comprehensive strategic offensive in 2024," especially considering the current state of foreign support (including Europe as well as the United States).
Officials speaking to The Washington Post also said they expect the war to eventually end at the negotiating table, but they believe it is unlikely that Russian President Vladimir Putin would engage in credible negotiations this year (since, in their opinion, the Russian leader is hopeful that Donald Trump will win the 2024 election, which in turn could put Kyiv in a more difficult position).
