While recent days in Kyiv have been dominated by discussions of changes in the top military command, Ukrainian forces have endured punishing days on the frontlines. Latest reports provide little cause for optimism in the coming days. Avdiivka, a key city in the Donbas and considered the gateway to the Donetsk regional capital, is expected to fall to Russian control shortly, according to military experts who suggest it's now a matter of time. With battles reaching the city limits on Sunday and Russian forces reportedly breaching the railway lines that run through the town, they could easily bisect Avdiivka, severely hindering Ukrainian supply lines. Brigade General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, commander of the Tavria military unit engaged in the region, reported that Russian occupiers have incorporated armored units in their assaults on Avdiivka and nearby Novomikhailovka. Russian efforts to seize the city have been ongoing for months, with Ukraine claiming to have inflicted tens of thousands of casualties on Russian forces, exceeding their own losses. However, Russia holds a distinct advantage in terms of supplies, and most crucially, ammunition.

Oleksiy Danilov commented that the frontline has always been tough, but the current situation is more severe than ever. He highlighted that while Russia receives weapon supplies from Iran and North Korea, Western deliveries have been sporadic, partly due to debates in the U.S. Congress. The usually optimistic official issued an unprecedentedly strong warning, expressing hopes that Western partners recognize the peril facing Ukraine’s independence, as well as the image, prestige, and unity of the West.

Military experts concur that Ukraine has approximately two months' worth of ammunition, and the situation could escalate if new deliveries do not arrive. Danilov reiterated that surrender is not an option, and the fight for their country will continue, stressing the pivotal role of U.S. support. An in-depth analysis by the Ukrainian news agency RBK highlighted the possibility that the upcoming U.S. presidential campaign may not decide favorably on the $60 billion aid package proposed by the Biden administration. While the Senate may pass the proposal, Republicans, led by Trump's most fervent supporters, hold the majority in the House. Former President Donald Trump, fighting for re-election, is staunchly against supporting Ukraine in its defensive war. Tying the bill to anti-immigration measures complicates it further, with immigration being a key issue in the Republican election campaign.

Hence, the Ukrainian army is facing a severe test. Russian military activity is expected to intensify as the Russian presidential election draws near. Deputy Editor-in-Chief of Germany's Bild newspaper, Paul Ronzheimer, who recently visited a frontline near Bakhmut, points out that Ukraine has not experienced such a severe military crisis since the siege of Kyiv two years ago. He questions whether this drama is comprehended in Washington, Berlin, and Paris. Ronzheimer indicates that President Volodymyr Zelensky’s goal to reclaim territories occupied by Russia seems impossible under current conditions, a sentiment long understood by the now former commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian forces, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi. Zaluzhnyi, as UNIAN news agency quotes, has publicly stated the lack of sufficient weapons, soldiers, and crucially, effective U.S. support. Traveling from Kyiv to Slovyansk feels like entering a different country, he says, describing how, unlike in Kyiv where life goes on with relative normalcy, the fate of cities in the Donbas hangs in the balance. A year ago, the battle was for Bakhmut, now it’s for Avdiivka, and the Russians appear to have the upper hand. Despite exhaustion, they are moving forward inch by inch. The losses are enormous, sometimes reaching a thousand a day, but this does not deter Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is intent on conquest at any cost writes the deputy editor-in-chief of Bild.