Scenarios Outlined: How Russia Could Launch an Attack on Europe
Concerns over a potential Russian assault on NATO's eastern flank particularly the Baltic states have not been new, as articles and even entire books on this topic have emerged over the last few years. However, in recent weeks, warnings about such a threat have noticeably multiplied.
Politicians have repeatedly cited that their country's intelligence services considered certain scenarios likely, and they have also indicated that the outcome of the American presidential election could influence whether Russia would dare to attack. The US edition of Politico summarized possible scenarios, emphasizing that they believe such an attack could mainly occur if Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election.
The former president has previously spoken critically of NATO and has allegedly hinted at reducing America's role in the alliance, even informing EU officials that he would not help Europe in the event of an attack on its countries. Officials interviewed by Politico stated that if the era of Pax Americana truly ends, European countries may need 5-10 years and significant financial resources to elevate their military forces to adequate levels, after having neglected military developments in recent decades.
Are Attacks Years Away from Being Possible?
The publication then listed three possible scenarios, some of which are based on previous warnings. According to one scenario,
Vladimir Putin could launch an attack in 2027.
This scenario paints a picture where the war in Ukraine is still ongoing, but Western support has dwindled and frontlines have stalled. Meanwhile, a conflict between Beijing and Washington over Taiwan distracts the West, leading Trump to redeploy the majority of American forces to the Pacific region and signaling to Putin that he would not intervene in the event of a Baltic incursion.
Capitalizing on the outlined situation, Russia could launch an attack against Estonia. After initial missile strikes, hundreds of thousands of battle-hardened troops from the Leningrad Military District, armed with modern equipment, could be deployed. Russian forces would engage with the Estonians and the NATO-led forward forces (primarily comprised of British troops), which are significantly smaller, forcing them to retreat.
In this scenario, Russia could capture most of Estonia within days and announce the annexation of the territory, extending its “nuclear umbrella” over the newly occupied area before NATO European nations could take any substantial action. The question then arises whether Europe would be willing to risk a military operation to liberate Estonia.
Europe Vulnerable If America Does Not Assist
The second scenario takes into account that a Russian attack could occur as early as 2025 a notion that aligns with documents that leaked from the Bundeswehr two weeks ago.
The German hypothesis foresees not Estonia, but rather the Suwalki Gap considered NATO's vulnerable point between Poland and Lithuania as a potential strike area. Such an operation could physically sever the entire Baltic region from the rest of NATO.
Could Putin Attack At Any Moment?
The third scenario suggests that Putin could attack at any time, potentially even tomorrow.
Politico pointed out that the bulk of Russian forces are currently tied up in the Ukraine war, but over the last few years, Russia has increased the number of reservists and conscripts to a 3.3 million-strong military force (while, during the same period, European countries have seen their troop numbers decline from 3.4 million in 1989 to 1.3 million in 2022). Furthermore, the number of Russian tanks, artillery, and fighter jets surpasses that of European NATO members (even if they may lag in quality).
Additionally, a severe ammunition shortage in European countries exacerbates the situation, as some of the existing stockpiles have been transferred to Ukraine. This was starkly illustrated when retired Belgian General Marc Thys stated in December 2023 that the Belgian army faces such an ammunition shortage that, soon after any conflict begins, they could be reduced to "throwing stones."
Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that Russia has neither the reason nor the interest in waging war with NATO countries. However, as Politico notes, he previously made similar assertions regarding Ukraine.
In parallel, multiple high-ranking officials admitted to the publication that Europe is currently vulnerable and not prepared in terms of personnel or military equipment for a high-intensity conflict similar to that in Ukraine. Echoing this sentiment was Daniel Fried, former US Ambassador to Warsaw, who stated:
Europeans lack sufficient [military] capacity for defense. A significant number of American military assets would be required to defend the Baltics.
The former president has previously spoken critically of NATO and has allegedly hinted at reducing America's role in the alliance, even informing EU officials that he would not help Europe in the event of an attack on its countries. Officials interviewed by Politico stated that if the era of Pax Americana truly ends, European countries may need 5-10 years and significant financial resources to elevate their military forces to adequate levels, after having neglected military developments in recent decades.
Are Attacks Years Away from Being Possible?
The publication then listed three possible scenarios, some of which are based on previous warnings. According to one scenario,
Vladimir Putin could launch an attack in 2027.
This scenario paints a picture where the war in Ukraine is still ongoing, but Western support has dwindled and frontlines have stalled. Meanwhile, a conflict between Beijing and Washington over Taiwan distracts the West, leading Trump to redeploy the majority of American forces to the Pacific region and signaling to Putin that he would not intervene in the event of a Baltic incursion.
Capitalizing on the outlined situation, Russia could launch an attack against Estonia. After initial missile strikes, hundreds of thousands of battle-hardened troops from the Leningrad Military District, armed with modern equipment, could be deployed. Russian forces would engage with the Estonians and the NATO-led forward forces (primarily comprised of British troops), which are significantly smaller, forcing them to retreat.
In this scenario, Russia could capture most of Estonia within days and announce the annexation of the territory, extending its “nuclear umbrella” over the newly occupied area before NATO European nations could take any substantial action. The question then arises whether Europe would be willing to risk a military operation to liberate Estonia.
Europe Vulnerable If America Does Not Assist
The second scenario takes into account that a Russian attack could occur as early as 2025 a notion that aligns with documents that leaked from the Bundeswehr two weeks ago.
The German hypothesis foresees not Estonia, but rather the Suwalki Gap considered NATO's vulnerable point between Poland and Lithuania as a potential strike area. Such an operation could physically sever the entire Baltic region from the rest of NATO.
Could Putin Attack At Any Moment?
The third scenario suggests that Putin could attack at any time, potentially even tomorrow.
Politico pointed out that the bulk of Russian forces are currently tied up in the Ukraine war, but over the last few years, Russia has increased the number of reservists and conscripts to a 3.3 million-strong military force (while, during the same period, European countries have seen their troop numbers decline from 3.4 million in 1989 to 1.3 million in 2022). Furthermore, the number of Russian tanks, artillery, and fighter jets surpasses that of European NATO members (even if they may lag in quality).
Additionally, a severe ammunition shortage in European countries exacerbates the situation, as some of the existing stockpiles have been transferred to Ukraine. This was starkly illustrated when retired Belgian General Marc Thys stated in December 2023 that the Belgian army faces such an ammunition shortage that, soon after any conflict begins, they could be reduced to "throwing stones."
Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that Russia has neither the reason nor the interest in waging war with NATO countries. However, as Politico notes, he previously made similar assertions regarding Ukraine.
In parallel, multiple high-ranking officials admitted to the publication that Europe is currently vulnerable and not prepared in terms of personnel or military equipment for a high-intensity conflict similar to that in Ukraine. Echoing this sentiment was Daniel Fried, former US Ambassador to Warsaw, who stated:
Europeans lack sufficient [military] capacity for defense. A significant number of American military assets would be required to defend the Baltics.
