Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

Ukraine war to cause biggest price shock in 50 years: World Bank

Ukraine war to cause biggest price shock in 50 years: World Bank

The war in Ukraine is set to cause the "largest commodity shock" since the 1970s, the World Bank has warned.
In a new forecast, it said the disruption caused by the conflict would contribute to huge price rises for goods ranging from natural gas to wheat and cotton.

The increase in prices "is starting to have very large economic and humanitarian effects", Peter Nagle, a co-author of the report, told the BBC.

He said "households across the world are feeling the cost of living crisis".

"We're particularly worried about the poorest households since they spend a larger share of income on food and energy, so they're particularly vulnerable to this price spike," the senior economist at the World Bank added.

Energy prices are set to increase more than 50%, pushing up bills for households and businesses, the World Bank says.

The biggest rise will be in the price of natural gas in Europe, which is set to more than double in cost. Prices are forecast to fall next year and in 2024, but even then will remain 15% higher than they were last year.

The World Bank said this means that from the lows of April 2020 until the highs of March this year we have seen "the largest 23-month increase in energy prices since the 1973 oil price hike", when tensions in the Middle East sent prices soaring.

Similarly, oil prices are expected to remain elevated into 2024 with a barrel of the benchmark measure, Brent Crude, projected to average $100 this year, something which will lead to widespread inflation.

Russia produces about 11% of the world's oil, the third biggest share, but the report said "disruptions resulting from the war are expected to having a lasting negative effect" as sanctions mean that foreign companies leave and access to technology is reduced.

Russia currently provides 40% of the EU's gas and 27% of its oil, but European governments are moving to wean their countries off of supplies from Russia. That has helped push up global prices by creating more demand for supplies from elsewhere.

The World Bank commodity outlook also warned many foods are set to see steep rises in their costs. The UN food prices index already shows they are at their highest since records began 60 years ago.

Wheat is forecast to increase 42.7% and reach new record highs in dollar terms. Other notable increases will be 33.3% for barley, 20% for soybeans and 29.8% for oils and 41.8% for chicken. These increases reflect the fact that exports from Ukraine and Russia have fallen drastically.

Before the war the two countries accounted for 28.9% of global wheat exports according to JP Morgan, and 60% of global sunflower supplies - a key ingredient in many processed foods - according to S&P Global.

Prices for other raw materials including fertilizers, metals and minerals are also predicted to go up. The costs of timber, tea and rice are among the few expected to fall.

"Wheat is one of the hardest agriculture exports to replace," according to a research note from the Bank of America. It points out that poor weather conditions in North America and China are likely to exacerbate the impact of Ukrainian supplies being reduced, something which will continue because the war has disrupted the spring planting season.

The note also suggests grain and oilseed shipments from Ukraine have fallen more than 80% because of the fighting and these lost exports, over the course of a year, "equate to about 10 days of world food supply".

The chief executive of Archer Daniels Midland, one of the world's four big food commodity traders, said he does not expect prices to come down soon.

As the US firm announced a 53% increase in net earnings for the first three months of this year, to $1.05bn, Juan Luciano said: "We expect reduced crop supplies - caused by the weak Canadian canola crop, the short South American crops, and now the disruptions in the Black Sea region - to drive continued tightness in global grain markets for the next few years".

Nagle, from the World Bank, said other countries can help solve the supply shortage caused by Ukraine's war in the medium term. However, a forecast 69% increase in fertilizer prices this year means "there's a real risk that as farmers start to use fewer fertilizers, agricultural yields will decline".

For commodities overall, the World Bank report said: "While prices generally are expected to peak in 2022, they are to remain much higher than previously forecast."

It added that "the outlook for commodity markets depends heavily on the duration of the war in Ukraine" and the disruption it causes to supply chains.
AI Disclaimer: An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system generated the content of this page on its own. This innovative technology conducts extensive research from a variety of reliable sources, performs rigorous fact-checking and verification, cleans up and balances biased or manipulated content, and presents a minimal factual summary that is just enough yet essential for you to function as an informed and educated citizen. Please keep in mind, however, that this system is an evolving technology, and as a result, the article may contain accidental inaccuracies or errors. We urge you to help us improve our site by reporting any inaccuracies you find using the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page. Your helpful feedback helps us improve our system and deliver more precise content. When you find an article of interest here, please look for the full and extensive coverage of this topic in traditional news sources, as they are written by professional journalists that we try to support, not replace. We appreciate your understanding and assistance.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
United Nations Calls for Global Action Against Disinformation and Hate Speech Online
Tucker Carlson warns of an inevitable clash in Western societies over mass migration
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman praises the rapid progress of Chinese tech companies.
Poland's President Karol Nawrocki ENDS support for Ukrainian citizens:
Italy's PM Giorgia Meloni highlights record employment and economic growth
Chancellor Friedrich Merz Re-elected as CDU Leader, Opposes AfD Influence
Trump Directs Government to Release UFO and Alien Information
Trump Signs Global 10% Tariffs on Imports
UK Government Considers Law to Remove Prince Andrew from Royal Line of Succession
Two teens arrested in France for alleged terror plot.
US Supreme Court Voids Trump’s Emergency Tariff Plan, Reshaping Trade Power and Fiscal Risk
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis advocates for a ban on minors using social media.
Meanwhile in Time Square, NYC One of the most famous landmarks
Jensen Huang just told the story of how Elon Musk became NVIDIA’s very first customer for their powerful AI supercomputer
Former British Prince Andrew Arrested on Suspicion of Misconduct in Public Office
Former President Yoon Suk Yeol Sentenced to Life in Prison for Abuse of Authority
Unitree Robotics founder Wang Xingxing showcases future robot deployment during Spring Festival Gala.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz calls for real name use on social media.
Italian Police Arrest Man After Alleged Attempt to Abduct Toddler at Bergamo Supermarket, Child Hospitalised With Fractured Femur
British Tourist Arrested at Hong Kong Airport After Meltdown and Vandalism
European Commission Plans Purchase Incentives Limited to Vehicles Manufactured Largely in the EU
French District of Pas-de-Calais Introduces Immediate License Suspension for Drivers Using Mobile Phones
Volkswagen Targets €60 Billion in Cost Reductions as Sales Decline and Global Pressures Intensify
Eighty-Year-Old Lottery Winner Sentenced to 16.5 Years for Drug Trafficking
Rubio Calls for Sweeping U.N. Reform, Saying It Has Failed to End Wars in Gaza and Ukraine
10,000 Condoms Distributed at Winter Olympics 2026 Athlete Village Depleted Within 72 Hours
Poland's President Advocates for Evaluating Independent Nuclear Weapons Development
Mayor of Serdobsk in Russia’s Penza Region Resigns After Housing Certificates Granted to Migrant Family Trigger Public Outcry
China’s EV Makers Face Mandatory Return to Physical Buttons and Door Handles in Driver-Distraction Safety Overhaul
UK Green Party Considering Proposal to Legalize Heroin for an Inclusive Society
OpenAI and DeepCent Superintelligence Race: Artificial General Intelligence and AI Agents as a National Security Arms Race
We will protect them from the digital Wild West.’ Another country will ban social media for under-16s
Heineken announces cut of 6,000 jobs due to declining beer demand
Apple iPhone Lockdown Mode blocks FBI data access in journalist device seizure
Belgium: Man Charged with Rape After Faking Payment to Sex Worker
KPMG Urges Auditor to Relay AI Cost Savings
Canada Opens First Consulate in Greenland Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions
China unveils plans for a 'Death Star' capable of launching missile strikes from space
Investigation Launched at Winter Olympics Over Ski Jumpers Injecting Hyaluronic Acid
U.S. State Department Issues Urgent Travel Warning for Citizens to Leave Iran Immediately
Wall Street Erases All Gains of 2026; Bitcoin Plummets 14% to $63,000
Eighty-one-year-old man in the United States fatally shoots Uber driver after scam threat
Political Censorship: French Prosecutors Raid Musk’s X Offices in Paris
AI Invented “Hot Springs” — Tourists Arrived and Were Shocked
France Begins Phasing Out Zoom and Microsoft Teams to Advance Digital Sovereignty
Tech Market Shifts and AI Investment Surge Drive Global Innovation and Layoffs
Global Shifts in War, Trade, Energy and Security Mark Major International Developments
Markets Jolt as AI Spending, US Policy Shifts, and Global Security Moves Drive New Volatility
Tesla Ends Model S and X Production and Sends $2 Billion to xAI as 2025 Revenue Declines
Starmer Signals UK Push for a More ‘Sophisticated’ Relationship With China in Talks With Xi
×