China Roots for Donald Trump in the U.S. Presidential Election
Reflecting on the global landscape before Donald Trump's ascent to the U.S. presidency in January 2017 reveals a starkly different picture.
At that time, the notion of Beijing as a threat to global security was not a mainstream thought in Washington. The imposition of tariffs on European imports seemed inconceivable, and the control of technological exports which had been increasingly relegated to the background since the end of the Cold War was the domain of a tiny minority of policymakers.
Considering Trump's confrontational rhetoric towards Beijing – including vows to escalate the U.S.-China trade war it's easy to believe that Chinese leaders would prefer current U.S. President Joe Biden over Trump, who is likely to be the Republican nominee, reports Foreign Policy.
However, this view is likely shortsighted and overlooks the broader picture.
All signs suggest that China is indeed cheering for Trump.
Beijing recognizes that there is no hope for improved relations with Washington, whether under Trump, Biden, or any other U.S. president. From the perspective of China's long-term game against the West, Trump's return to the White House could be economically advantageous for China. Here are five reasons why this might be the case.
1. TRUMP WOULD INCREASE DIVISIONS BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND EUROPE
In December 2023, the Financial Times reported that Chinese intelligence had been using former Belgian Senator Frank Creyelman as a tool for years. His Chinese liaison succinctly summarized the purpose of their connection:
> Our goal is to divide American-European relations.
Beijing's argument is simple: solidifying distrust between the United States and Europe is the best way to prevent the emergence of transatlantic policies that could harm Chinese interests, such as joint export controls. From this perspective, a second Trump presidency would play into China's hands.
> It's the European Union's opposition that arises from what they're doing to us in trade,
Trump said in 2018, with no sign indicating he has changed his view.
If re-elected, Trump would likely be unable to resist the temptation to rekindle the trade war with Europe for instance, by fulfilling his promise to impose a universal 10 percent tariff. Though this trade battle would likely stall U.S.-EU cooperation on measures that could hurt Chinese interests. Trump's recent pledge to slap a minimum of 60 percent tariffs on Chinese imports would also be painful for Beijing. But considering the larger picture, Beijing might believe the cost is worth paying if the prize is a rift between the United States and the EU.
2. TRUMP COULD SIGNAL A SHIFT IN SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA
Despite the unpredictability of Trump's foreign policy, one constant has been his apparent affinity for Russian President Vladimir Putin. This was most evident during the 2018 U.S.-Russia summit in Finland when Trump implied trust in Putin over his intelligence services. If his admiration for Putin persists, Trump could decide, upon taking office, to immediately lift sanctions against Russia much to the horror of European nations.
Such a situation would delight Moscow but also benefit Beijing. Despite declarations of an unbounded friendship between Russia and China, Chinese companies have been cautious in their relations with Russia. Although China's exports to Russia have surged since 2022, it started from a low base, and there's little evidence that Chinese firms are rushing into Russian investments.
The fear of Washington imposing secondary sanctions, forcing companies worldwide to choose between American and Russian clients, has stifled Chinese firms’ involvement. Under such a scenario, sticking to the U.S. market would be a no-brainer for most Chinese companies. However, lifting sanctions against Moscow would resolve this issue for Chinese firms.
3. TRUMP COULD GIVE MOMENTUM TO CHINA'S PURSUIT OF ALTERNATIVE FINANCIAL MECHANISMS
China has long been seeking to hedge against American sanctions, whether through de-dollarization, establishing alternatives to the Western-dominated SWIFT global banking system, or plans for a digital yuan for cross-border payment settlements. However, China cannot accomplish this strategy alone. To displace established Western structures, China's trade partners must choose the non-Western alternative. But the road there is steep; most corporations and banks see no need to abandon a perfectly functional SWIFT for a far less established Chinese counterpart.
A second Trump presidency could alter this reasoning. The 2018 case of the Russian aluminum producer Rusal illustrates why. After abruptly imposing sanctions on the company, the Trump administration was forced to retreat and swiftly lift the sanctions upon realizing the measure's massive global ripple effects.
The lesson was clear: under Trump, anything is possible, and anyone could find themselves under sanctions without warning. Consequently, many countries would seek to shield themselves preemptively from such measures if Trump were to return to the White House. At this juncture, the best way to do so would be to switch to Beijing's alternative financial mechanisms another victory for China.
4. A TRUMP VICTORY WOULD INCREASE CHINA'S DOMINANCE IN SECURING CRITICAL MATERIALS FROM EMERGING COUNTRIES
In the battle for global influence, Western economies are competing with China for access to critical raw materials essential for the transition to green energy – such as cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium, and nickel. This battle has mainly been fought in mineral-rich emerging economies, like Bolivia, Brazil, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Guinea, and Indonesia. China leads this race by far, controlling approximately 50-70 percent of the global refinement of lithium reserves.
A second Trump presidency wouldn't help in convincing developing economies – which Trump once collectively scorned as "shithole countries" to partner with Washington in securing critical material supplies. Many mineral-rich states would fear that Trump's promises carry little weight, as his abrupt withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal in 2018 demonstrated.
Also, Trump’s disdain for developing economies, his likely restrictions on immigration, and his incendiary rhetoric on Islam would not break the ice with leaders in Africa, Southeast Asia, or South America. China would revel in this and continue to promote its interests in emerging economies by presenting itself as a reliable partner that does not mix business and politics.
5. CHINA WOULD BENEFIT FROM U.S. EXPORT CONTROLS ON CLEAN TECHNOLOGIES
Export restrictions represent a crucial tool for Washington in its economic risk mitigation strategy focused on China. These measures target dual-use technologies such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and quantum technology. So far, clean technologies have been spared from U.S. export controls, but a Trump presidency would likely change this. Republicans have made it clear they would take a tougher stance against China, seeking broader export controls than the Biden administration, likely including clean technology such as renewable energy and battery technology.
From China's perspective, the imposition of American export controls on green goods would be excellent news. In the short and medium term, such measures would have little impact on Chinese companies, as they are already global leaders in sectors like solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicles.
In the long run, Chinese businesses could even profit from these controls. Deprived of the world's largest markets, American companies would have lesser revenue and be forced to reduce R&D budgets. With generous state subsidies, Chinese firms could double down on research spending and develop the next generation of clean technologies, potentially outpacing their American counterparts. Furthermore, the scenario of American retreat in clean technology standards could help China influence the global standards of future clean technology products, a win on all counts for Beijing.
Considering Trump's confrontational rhetoric towards Beijing – including vows to escalate the U.S.-China trade war it's easy to believe that Chinese leaders would prefer current U.S. President Joe Biden over Trump, who is likely to be the Republican nominee, reports Foreign Policy.
However, this view is likely shortsighted and overlooks the broader picture.
All signs suggest that China is indeed cheering for Trump.
Beijing recognizes that there is no hope for improved relations with Washington, whether under Trump, Biden, or any other U.S. president. From the perspective of China's long-term game against the West, Trump's return to the White House could be economically advantageous for China. Here are five reasons why this might be the case.
1. TRUMP WOULD INCREASE DIVISIONS BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND EUROPE
In December 2023, the Financial Times reported that Chinese intelligence had been using former Belgian Senator Frank Creyelman as a tool for years. His Chinese liaison succinctly summarized the purpose of their connection:
> Our goal is to divide American-European relations.
Beijing's argument is simple: solidifying distrust between the United States and Europe is the best way to prevent the emergence of transatlantic policies that could harm Chinese interests, such as joint export controls. From this perspective, a second Trump presidency would play into China's hands.
> It's the European Union's opposition that arises from what they're doing to us in trade,
Trump said in 2018, with no sign indicating he has changed his view.
If re-elected, Trump would likely be unable to resist the temptation to rekindle the trade war with Europe for instance, by fulfilling his promise to impose a universal 10 percent tariff. Though this trade battle would likely stall U.S.-EU cooperation on measures that could hurt Chinese interests. Trump's recent pledge to slap a minimum of 60 percent tariffs on Chinese imports would also be painful for Beijing. But considering the larger picture, Beijing might believe the cost is worth paying if the prize is a rift between the United States and the EU.
2. TRUMP COULD SIGNAL A SHIFT IN SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA
Despite the unpredictability of Trump's foreign policy, one constant has been his apparent affinity for Russian President Vladimir Putin. This was most evident during the 2018 U.S.-Russia summit in Finland when Trump implied trust in Putin over his intelligence services. If his admiration for Putin persists, Trump could decide, upon taking office, to immediately lift sanctions against Russia much to the horror of European nations.
Such a situation would delight Moscow but also benefit Beijing. Despite declarations of an unbounded friendship between Russia and China, Chinese companies have been cautious in their relations with Russia. Although China's exports to Russia have surged since 2022, it started from a low base, and there's little evidence that Chinese firms are rushing into Russian investments.
The fear of Washington imposing secondary sanctions, forcing companies worldwide to choose between American and Russian clients, has stifled Chinese firms’ involvement. Under such a scenario, sticking to the U.S. market would be a no-brainer for most Chinese companies. However, lifting sanctions against Moscow would resolve this issue for Chinese firms.
3. TRUMP COULD GIVE MOMENTUM TO CHINA'S PURSUIT OF ALTERNATIVE FINANCIAL MECHANISMS
China has long been seeking to hedge against American sanctions, whether through de-dollarization, establishing alternatives to the Western-dominated SWIFT global banking system, or plans for a digital yuan for cross-border payment settlements. However, China cannot accomplish this strategy alone. To displace established Western structures, China's trade partners must choose the non-Western alternative. But the road there is steep; most corporations and banks see no need to abandon a perfectly functional SWIFT for a far less established Chinese counterpart.
A second Trump presidency could alter this reasoning. The 2018 case of the Russian aluminum producer Rusal illustrates why. After abruptly imposing sanctions on the company, the Trump administration was forced to retreat and swiftly lift the sanctions upon realizing the measure's massive global ripple effects.
The lesson was clear: under Trump, anything is possible, and anyone could find themselves under sanctions without warning. Consequently, many countries would seek to shield themselves preemptively from such measures if Trump were to return to the White House. At this juncture, the best way to do so would be to switch to Beijing's alternative financial mechanisms another victory for China.
4. A TRUMP VICTORY WOULD INCREASE CHINA'S DOMINANCE IN SECURING CRITICAL MATERIALS FROM EMERGING COUNTRIES
In the battle for global influence, Western economies are competing with China for access to critical raw materials essential for the transition to green energy – such as cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium, and nickel. This battle has mainly been fought in mineral-rich emerging economies, like Bolivia, Brazil, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Guinea, and Indonesia. China leads this race by far, controlling approximately 50-70 percent of the global refinement of lithium reserves.
A second Trump presidency wouldn't help in convincing developing economies – which Trump once collectively scorned as "shithole countries" to partner with Washington in securing critical material supplies. Many mineral-rich states would fear that Trump's promises carry little weight, as his abrupt withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal in 2018 demonstrated.
Also, Trump’s disdain for developing economies, his likely restrictions on immigration, and his incendiary rhetoric on Islam would not break the ice with leaders in Africa, Southeast Asia, or South America. China would revel in this and continue to promote its interests in emerging economies by presenting itself as a reliable partner that does not mix business and politics.
5. CHINA WOULD BENEFIT FROM U.S. EXPORT CONTROLS ON CLEAN TECHNOLOGIES
Export restrictions represent a crucial tool for Washington in its economic risk mitigation strategy focused on China. These measures target dual-use technologies such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and quantum technology. So far, clean technologies have been spared from U.S. export controls, but a Trump presidency would likely change this. Republicans have made it clear they would take a tougher stance against China, seeking broader export controls than the Biden administration, likely including clean technology such as renewable energy and battery technology.
From China's perspective, the imposition of American export controls on green goods would be excellent news. In the short and medium term, such measures would have little impact on Chinese companies, as they are already global leaders in sectors like solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicles.
In the long run, Chinese businesses could even profit from these controls. Deprived of the world's largest markets, American companies would have lesser revenue and be forced to reduce R&D budgets. With generous state subsidies, Chinese firms could double down on research spending and develop the next generation of clean technologies, potentially outpacing their American counterparts. Furthermore, the scenario of American retreat in clean technology standards could help China influence the global standards of future clean technology products, a win on all counts for Beijing.
