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The €136bn price tag on Ukraine's path to joining the EU

Ukraine's journey to EU membership comes with a significant cost, estimated at €136 billion, not including post-war reconstruction expenses which are expected to surpass hundreds of billions.
The Bruegel Institute reports that this amount is a fraction of the EU's GDP but still a significant chunk of the bloc's seven-year budget.

The EU fast-tracked Ukraine's candidate status following Russia’s invasion, yet insists on further reforms, especially in governance. Hungary's Viktor Orban delayed agreement on these requirements until last December.

For reconstruction, the EU plans to partly fund Ukraine's recovery, with private investors also expected to play a role. However, the exact distribution of the estimated €400 billion needed remains uncertain.

The proposal faces skepticism from some EU members, particularly right-wing factions. The costs might be lower if Ukraine doesn't regain all its territory lost to war. Joining the EU could boost Ukraine's trade and foreign investment, benefiting both parties as seen in previous expansions.

However, corruption in Ukraine is a major issue, and the country's governance indicators are worrying. Despite this, the EU is keen to integrate Ukraine, comparing the move to Germany's reunification, although the economic disparities with Ukraine are much greater.

Ultimately, EU membership for Ukraine will mark a gradual improvement in wages and living standards, but will likely leave Ukraine as the EU's least wealthy member for the foreseeable future.
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