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New U.S. Sanctions Spark Global Oil Price Surge

New U.S. Sanctions Spark Global Oil Price Surge

Washington's measures target Russian oil exports, prompting shifts in major importers and impacting Central European markets.
The global oil market has witnessed a notable increase in the prices of Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, with figures rising over 6% since January 8. This surge is largely attributed to recent sanctions imposed by the United States Treasury against entities involved in the Russian oil trade, including the so-called shadow fleet and associated ship insurers.

These sanctions significantly hinder Russia's ability to export oil, compelling major importers like China and India—the world's first and third-largest crude oil consumers, respectively—to seek alternative sources from the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas.

This redirection not only drives up oil prices but also escalates transportation costs, a ripple effect felt worldwide.

Otto Grád, Secretary General of the Hungarian Petroleum Association, confirmed to our publication that current trends continue to drive prices upward.

Demand for oil is anticipated to rise further due to cold weather conditions across Europe and the United States.

On a regional note, matters are further complicated by U.S. sanctions targeting the Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS), a Serbian Oil Company, due to its Russian ownership through Gazpromneft, a company already on the U.S. sanctions list.

This action may lead to reduced oil supply in Central Europe, affecting local refining capacities and necessitating increased imports of refined fuels such as gasoline and diesel.

Industry sources suggest potential supply disruptions in the Serbian market, while Hungary and neighboring countries may also face rising fuel prices.

Grád highlighted that alternative fuel supply routes could be explored through regional refineries and via imports from nearby oil terminals.

Notably, 20-30% of Hungary's fuel consumption is reliant on imports, indicating the consequential effect of regional supply fluctuations on local markets.

Compounding the situation, the strengthening U.S. dollar further exacerbates rising fuel costs.

The robust performance of the U.S. economy, coupled with anticipated tariff increases, supports the dollar's position against other currencies.

According to recent data from holtankoljak.hu, wholesale fuel prices in Hungary continue to climb, with petrol and diesel prices increasing by 3 and 6 forints per liter, respectively.

Current average station prices record 636 forints for 95-octane petrol and 655 forints for diesel.

Peter Virovácz, leading analyst at ING, previously noted the accelerating inflation in Hungary, particularly in sectors like food, fuel, and rent, amplifying perceived inflation rates.

Furthermore, adjustments in excise taxes are anticipated to result in immediate increases of 11 forints for petrol and 10 forints for diesel prices at the pump.

As highlighted by Eszter Bujdos, CEO of holtankoljak.hu, consumers should brace for average fuel costs stabilizing around the 600-620 forint range this year.
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