Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

Inflation is so hot the Fed may have to hike interest rates like it's 1994

Inflation is so hot the Fed may have to hike interest rates like it's 1994

Inflation is so hot that Wall Street banks are falling over each other to predict the dramatic moves the Federal Reserve will have to make to cool prices off.

Goldman Sachs raised eyebrows earlier this week by forecasting the Fed will raise interest rates by a half a percentage point in each of the next two meetings.

Morgan Stanley and Jefferies quickly endorsed that view, even though the Fed hasn't done a rate hike of that size at a single meeting since 2000.

Now, Citigroup is upping the ante. Citi economists said Friday they expect the Fed will boost interest rates by a half a percentage point during each of the next four meetings. And Citi left the door open for even more aggressive steps, such as big rate hikes at every remaining meeting this year.

The aggressive call underscores the level of concern about the inflation outlook, which has darkened considerably in recent weeks because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing spike in food, energy and other commodity prices.

"With inflation likely to be very strong in March...and to remain elevated in April, we think it will be hard for Fed officials to argue why they would not raise 50 [basis points]," Citi economists wrote, referring to basis points.

Citi warned that if inflation "unexpectedly accelerates" or long-term inflation expectations rise "rapidly," it's possible the Fed will hike rates by more than half a percentage point in a meeting.

1994 bond market meltdown


Normally, the Fed raises rates gradually, moving in quarter-point increments. But with consumer prices surging at the fastest pace in 40 years, these are not normal times.

Keep in mind that just a year ago, Fed officials indicated they saw no interest rate increases until at least 2024. Now, investors are bracing for six more rate hikes just this year.

The last time the Fed raised interest rates by half a percentage point or more in four straight meetings was late 1994-early 1995. That series of aggressive rate hikes helped set off chaos in financial markets, with bond markets melting down and hedge funds collapsing. Months later, the Fed was forced to reverse course and cut interest rates.

'There is an obvious need'


Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled this week that officials are prepared to step up their belated fight against inflation.

"There is an obvious need to move expeditiously to return the stance of monetary policy to a more neutral level," Powell said at an event hosted by the National Association for Business Economics.

That's Fed speak for the central bank going from pedal-to-the-metal support for the economy to hitting the brakes. That makes sense given that inflation is high and unemployment is low.

But the harder the Fed hits the brakes, the greater the risk of causing an accident that could potentially wreck the financial markets, the real economy, or both.

Comments

Anna 1 year ago
15% hike and inflation stops. And retired folk can live on the savings they worked all their lives for.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Budapest Post
Close
0:00
0:00
Powell: Silicon Valley Bank was an 'outlier'
Bordeaux town hall set on fire in France pro democracy protest
Police violence in Paris
Paris: Some of the police are stepping down and showing solidarity with the protesters.
Donald Trump arrested – Twitter goes wild with doctored pictures
NYPD is setting up barricades outside Manhattan Criminal Court ahead of Trump arrest.
Credit Suisse's Scandalous History Resulted in an Obvious Collapse - It's time for regulators who fail to do their job to be held accountable and serve as an example by being behind bars.
Paris Rioting vs Macron anti democratic law
'Sexual Fantasy' Assignment At US School Outrages Parents
Orbán Viktor: the restructuring of the power relations in the whole of Europe is taking place
Credit Suisse to borrow $54 billion from Swiss central bank
Russian Hackers Preparing New Cyber Assault Against Ukraine
"Will Fly Wherever International Law Allows": US Warns Russia After Drone Incident
If this was in Tehran, Moscow or Hong Kong
Drew Barrymore
China is calling out the US, UK, and Australia on their submarine pact, claiming they are going further down a dangerous road
A brief banking situation report
We are witnessing widespread bank fails and the president just gave a 5 min speech then walked off camera.
Donald Trump's asked by Tucker Carlson question on if the U.S. should support regime change in Russia?.
Silicon Valley Bank exec was Lehman Brothers CFO
Elon Musk Is Planning To Build A Town In Texas For His Employees
The Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse effect is spreading around the world, affecting startup companies across the globe
City officials in Berlin announced on Thursday that all swimmers at public pools will soon be allowed to swim topless
Fitness scam
Market Chaos as USDC Loses Peg to USD after $3.3 Billion Reserves Held by Silicon Valley Bank Closed.
Banking regulators close SVB, the largest bank failure since the financial crisis
Silicon Valley Bank: Struggles Threaten Tech Startup Ecosystem"
The unelected UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, an immigrant himself, defends new controversial crackdown on illegal migration
Man’s penis amputated by mistake after he’s wrongly diagnosed with a tumour
In a major snub to Downing Street's Silicon Valley dreams, UK chip giant Arm has dealt a serious blow to the government's economic strategy by opting for a US listing
It's the question on everyone's lips: could a four-day workweek be the future of employment?
Is Gold the Ultimate Safe Haven Asset in Times of Uncertainty?
Spain officials quit over trains that were too wide for tunnels...
Hello. Here is our news digest from London.
Corruption and Influence Buying Uncovered in International Mainstream Media: Investigation Reveals Growing Disinformation Mercenaries
European MP Clare Daly condemns US attack on Nord Stream
Former U.S. President Carter will spend his remaining time at home and receive hospice care instead of medication
Tucker Carlson called Trump a 'demonic force'
Kamala Harris: "The United States has formally determined that Russia has committed crimes against humanity."
US Joins 15 NATO Nations in Largest Space Data Collection Initiative in History
Lufthansa flights cancelled and re-routed after IT Outage caused by construction work in Frankfurt! Chaos ensues!
White House: No ETs over the United States
Saray Street in Hatay-Antakya before and after the earthquake
U.S. Jet Shoots Down Flying Object Over Canada
Nord Stream terror attack: David Sacks breaks down Sy Hersh's story
Being a Tiktoker might be expensive…
Miracle: El Salvador Search and Rescue teams, with the support of Turkish teams, rescued a woman and a child from the rubble 150 hours after the earthquake
SpaceX, the private space exploration company, made a significant breakthrough in their mission to reach space.
China's top tech firms, including Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, NetEase, and JD.com, are developing their own versions of Open AI's AI-powered chatbot, ChatGPT
This shocking picture, showing how terrible is the results of the earthquake in Turkey
×