Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

IMF demands interest rate rises as UK set for weakest growth among G7 economies next year

IMF demands interest rate rises as UK set for weakest growth among G7 economies next year

The International Monetary Fund's prescription for dealing with the cost of living crisis is likely to be seized upon by Rishi Sunak's supporters as evidence that his blueprint is the right course for the UK government to take.

The world's lender of last resort has appealed for central banks to raise interest rates and for governments to take a responsible stance with public finances while warning of a harder impact from the global inflation shock.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) used its updated World Economic Outlook to take another red pen to growth forecasts as economies battle the impact of rising prices.

It said that growth was "stalling" in the world's three largest economies (the US, China and eurozone) as a consequence of the deteriorating picture for inflation, linked to the COVID pandemic and latterly Russia's war in Ukraine, forecasting that the problem would remain more stubborn than predicted in its previous update.

Chillingly it warned that under a "plausible" scenario, downside risks for the global economy including a complete shutdown in Russian gas supplies to Europe and prolonged zero-COVID lockdowns in China would result in one of the worst performances for output since 1970 if realised.

The fund's new forecasts saw global growth of 3.2% for 2022 - a downwards revision of 0.4% on April's forecast.

Much of that figure was accounted for by a massive 1.4% downgrade for the United States - the world's largest economy.

The IMF said it now expected growth of just 2.3% this year as a result of an inflation rate that, like in the UK, was at a 40-year high.

It said that disruption to trade flows with China was another big factor behind the downgrade and warned growth would stall further, to just 1%, in 2023.



The report downgraded its expectations for Chinese growth this year by 1.1% to just 3.3% as it also faces inflationary pressures but also battles COVID outbreaks through shutdowns of major cities that have inflicted huge damage on its manufacturing sector.

The UK, the IMF projected, would see a growth of 3.2% this year - above those of its biggest competitors including France and Germany - but it repeated its forecast that output would ease significantly to just 0.5% in 2023 to become the slowest among the G7.

Russia was tipped to see its economy contract by 6% this year and by 3.5% in 2023 as it grapples with the effects of Western sanctions.

The sanctions imposed over the war in Ukraine have exacerbated the global inflation problem as it has forced countries to scramble for alternative supplies of key commodities including wheat, sunflower oil, oil and natural gas.

The IMF urged central bank and government action to help bring down inflationary pressures, with its fiscal prescription favouring the stance taken by former chancellor Rishi Sunak as he battles Liz Truss for the Tory leadership and keys to Number 10.

"With increasing prices continuing to squeeze living standards worldwide, taming inflation should be the first priority for policymakers", the fund said.

"Tighter monetary policy will inevitably have real economic costs, but the delay will only exacerbate them.

"Targeted fiscal support can help cushion the impact on the most vulnerable, but with government budgets stretched by the pandemic and the need for a disinflationary overall macroeconomic policy stance, such policies will need to be offset by increased taxes or lower government spending."

The Conservative leadership race has been dominated by the candidates' approach to the cost of living crisis.

Ms Truss, the foreign secretary, favours a "bold" tax cut agenda to prevent the economy from going into reverse while the former occupant of Number 11 has ruled out giveaways in the short term for fear of fuelling inflation further.

The Bank of England, for its part, has raised the Bank rate at each meeting since December last year but is under pressure to opt for a sharper hike at its meeting early next month.

Governor Andrew Bailey has said that a 50 basis points increase, which would take its core rate to 1.75%, is on the table but not necessarily on the cards.

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the fund's chief economist, wrote: "Tighter monetary policy will inevitably have real economic costs, but delaying it will only exacerbate the hardship.

"Central banks that have started tightening should stay the course until inflation is tamed."

AI Disclaimer: An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system generated the content of this page on its own. This innovative technology conducts extensive research from a variety of reliable sources, performs rigorous fact-checking and verification, cleans up and balances biased or manipulated content, and presents a minimal factual summary that is just enough yet essential for you to function as an informed and educated citizen. Please keep in mind, however, that this system is an evolving technology, and as a result, the article may contain accidental inaccuracies or errors. We urge you to help us improve our site by reporting any inaccuracies you find using the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page. Your helpful feedback helps us improve our system and deliver more precise content. When you find an article of interest here, please look for the full and extensive coverage of this topic in traditional news sources, as they are written by professional journalists that we try to support, not replace. We appreciate your understanding and assistance.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Miliband Sets Climate and International Law at Centre of UK Diplomacy
Czech Central Bank Governor Rejects Early Euro Entry and Rate-Cut Pressure
Trump Readies New Tariffs as Temporary Global Levy Nears Expiry
Vivienne Westwood Casts Cicciolina, 74, in Its New Autumn Campaign
Dejavu: Germany’s Military Expansion Reshapes Europe’s Strategic Balance With France
Morgan Stanley Builds a Wall Street Lead in AI Infrastructure Finance
High Prices Push Coffee Drinkers Toward Whole Beans and Home Brewing
Trump Draws Boos and Podium Scrutiny at Spain’s World Cup Triumph
Brilliant move: Péter Magyar Moves to Nominate Chess Grandmaster Judit Polgár as Hungary’s President
Spain Defeats Argentina in Extra Time to Win Second World Cup
Current AI Seeks to Build an Open Global AI Infrastructure Outside Big Tech Control
Germany’s Economic Malaise Reopens the Sunday Shopping Debate
Proposed U.S.-Saudi Nuclear Pact Could Permit Limited Uranium Enrichment Under International Safeguards
Netherlands Declares Water Shortage Emergency After Drought Pushes Rivers to Historic Lows
Why Kentucky Fried Chicken Became KFC—and Why the False Explanations Persist
Ukrainian Drones Strike Wildberries Warehouses Deep Inside Russia
Reported CIA Mission Helped Clear the UAE’s Path to Advanced US AI Chips
Artificial Intelligence Capital Fuels Markets While Governments and Regulators Face Mounting Strategic Tests
China’s Moonshot’s Kimi K3 Narrows the Gap With Anthropic Through Scale, Openness and Lower Cost
The Ledger Will Not Trust on Faith
Trump Administration Pressures Banks to Restrict Financial Access for Undocumented Immigrants
Passenger Bound for Germany Refused to Sit Beside a Woman on a Plane — Then Slapped a Flight Attendant
Ukraine’s Leadership Rift Spills Into the Streets as Protesters Target Army Chief
Ukrainian Drone Barrage Kills Eight and Strikes Russian Logistics Network
The Ten World Cup Finals That Defined Football History
Smartphones Are Getting More Expensive, Sales Are Collapsing, and Even Apple Admits: "Prices Will Rise"
The Monaco Bombing Has Become a Test of Ukraine’s Intelligence Accountability
Leadership Change and Strategic Rivalry Redraw the Political Map
The AI Race Enters Its Infrastructure Era
Britain Nationalises British Steel to Protect Scunthorpe Production and Strategic Supply
French National Assembly Overrides Senate to Pass Historic Assisted-Dying Legislation
Spanish Prime Minister's Wife Ordered to Stand Trial as Corruption Probes Encircle Governing Party
Zelensky Faces Kyiv Protests Over Ousting of Dynamic Ukrainian Defense Minister
Thomas Tuchel Faces Fierce Backlash After Tactical Retreat Costs England World Cup Final Berth
A Quiet Bastille Day: France Grapples with World Cup Heartbreak and Leftover Fireworks
Spain in Ecstasy: "We Feel Unbeatable, We Taught the Whole World a Lesson"
Spain and UK Dismantle Gibraltar Border Following Landmark Schengen Integration Treaty
Hungary's "Puppet" President to Be Ousted, Orbán Fumes: "Democracy Is Dead"
Forget Tinder: The Surprising Platform Where People Find Love
Harvard Astrophysicist to Lead U.S. Scientific Advisory on Unidentified Aerial Phenomena
Emergency Sirens Activated Across Bahrain as Interior Ministry Issues Shelter Directives
World Cup Visitors Turn American Big-Box Stores Into Souvenir Stops
Netflix Weighs Always-On Channels, Bundles and Short-Form Video
Passenger Is Pulled Partly Outside Ryanair Jet After Window Fails Mid-Flight
The AI Invoice Shock: Layoffs Didn't Save Managers Money — They Cost Them More
Concern: Sexually Transmitted Bacterium Among Men Develops Antibiotic Resistance
Passenger Partially Pulled Out of Ryanair Jet After Cabin Window Fails Mid-Flight
Severe Heatwave Drives Dangerous Ground-Level Ozone Pollution Across Two Thirds of European Union
The Physical and Electronic Barriers Disrupting Domestic Wireless Networks
France and Morocco Open World Cup Quarter-Finals as Collina Defends Refereeing
×