Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

Climate change increases risk of new viruses emerging: Research

Climate change increases risk of new viruses emerging: Research

Likely hot spots include the Sahel, Ethiopian Highlands, Rift Valley, India, eastern China, Indonesia, and the Philippines.

Climate change will drive animals towards cooler areas where their first encounters with other species will vastly increase the risk of new viruses infecting humans, researchers warned on Thursday.

There are currently at least 10,000 viruses “circulating silently” among wild mammals that have the capacity to cross over into humans, mostly in the depths of tropical forests.

As rising temperatures force those mammals to abandon their native habitats, they will meet other species for the first time, creating at least 15,000 new instances of viruses jumping between animals by 2070, according to a study published in the journal Nature.

“We have demonstrated a novel and potentially devastating mechanism for disease emergence that could threaten the health of animal populations in the future, which will most likely have ramifications for our health too,” said study co-author Gregory Albery, a disease ecologist at Georgetown University.

“This work provides us with more incontrovertible evidence that the coming decades will not only be hotter, but sicker,” Albery said.

The study, five years in the making, looked at 3,139 species of mammals, modelling how their movements would change under a range of global warming scenarios, then analysing how viral transmission would be affected.

Researchers found that new contacts between different mammals would effectively double, with first encounters occurring everywhere in the world, but particularly concentrated in tropical Africa and Southeast Asia.


The threat of bats


Global warming will also cause those first contacts to take place in more highly populated areas, where people “are likely to be vulnerable, and some viruses will be able to spread globally from any of these population centres”, according to the research.

Likely hot spots include the Sahel, the Ethiopian Highlands and the Rift Valley, India, eastern China, Indonesia, the Philippines and some European population centres, the study found.

The research was completed just weeks before the start of the coronavirus pandemic, but emphasised the unique threat posed by bats, in which COVID-19 is believed to have first emerged. As the only mammal that can fly, bats can travel far greater distances than their land-bound brethren, spreading disease as they go.

Bats are believed to already be on the move, and the study found they accounted for a large majority of potential first encounters with other mammals, mostly in Southeast Asia.


Even if the world does massively and quickly reduce its greenhouse gas emissions – a scenario that still seems some way off – it might not help for this problem.

The modelling showed that the mildest climate change scenarios could lead to more cross-species transmission than the worst-case scenarios, because slower warming gives the animals more time to travel.


‘Not preventable’


The researchers also tried to work out when the first encounters between species could start happening, expecting it would be later this century.

But “surprisingly” their projections found that most first contacts would be between 2011 and 2040, steadily increasing from there.

“This is happening. It is not preventable even in the best-case climate change scenarios, and we need to put measures in place to build health infrastructure to protect animal and human populations,” Albery said.

The researchers emphasised that while they had focused on mammals, other animals could harbour zoonotic viruses – the name for viruses that jump from animals to humans.

They called for further research on the threat posed by birds, amphibians and even marine mammals, as melting sea ice allows them to mingle more.

The study’s co-author Colin Carlson, a global change biologist also at Georgetown, said climate change is “creating innumerable hot spots of future zoonotic risk – or present-day zoonotic risk – right in our backyard”.

“We have to acknowledge that climate change is going to be the biggest upstream driver of disease emergence,” Carlson said, “and we have to build health systems that are ready for that.”

AI Disclaimer: An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system generated the content of this page on its own. This innovative technology conducts extensive research from a variety of reliable sources, performs rigorous fact-checking and verification, cleans up and balances biased or manipulated content, and presents a minimal factual summary that is just enough yet essential for you to function as an informed and educated citizen. Please keep in mind, however, that this system is an evolving technology, and as a result, the article may contain accidental inaccuracies or errors. We urge you to help us improve our site by reporting any inaccuracies you find using the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page. Your helpful feedback helps us improve our system and deliver more precise content. When you find an article of interest here, please look for the full and extensive coverage of this topic in traditional news sources, as they are written by professional journalists that we try to support, not replace. We appreciate your understanding and assistance.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Bruce Willis Relocated Due to Advanced Dementia
French and Korean Nuclear Majors Clash As EU Launches Foreign Subsidy Probe
EU Stands Firm on Digital Rules as Trump Warns of Retaliation
Getting Ready for the 3rd Time in Its History, Germany Approves Voluntary Military Service for Teenagers
Denmark Confronts U.S. Diplomat Over Covert Trump-Linked Influence in Greenland
Trump Demands RICO Charges Against George Soros and Son for Funding Violent Protests
Taylor Swift Announces Engagement to NFL Star Travis Kelce
France May Need IMF Bailout, Warns Finance Minister
After the Shock of Defeat, Iranians Yearn for Change
Ukraine Finally Allows Young Men Aged Eighteen to Twenty-Two to Leave the Country
The Porn Remains, Privacy Disappears: How Britain Broke the Internet in Ten Days
YouTube Altered Content by Artificial Intelligence – Without Permission
Ukrainian Refugee Iryna Zarutska Fled War To US, Stabbed To Death
Elon Musk Sues Apple and OpenAI Over Alleged App Store Monopoly
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz: “The Current Welfare State Can No Longer Be Financed”
HSBC Switzerland Ends Relationships with Over 1,000 Clients from Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Qatar, and Egypt
Sharia Law Made Legally Binding in Austria Despite Warnings Over 'Incompatible' Values
Dutch Foreign Minister Resigns Amid Deadlock Over Israel Sanctions
Trump and Allies Send Messages of Support to Ukraine on Independence Day Amid Ongoing Conflict
China Reels as Telegram Chat Group Shares Hidden-Camera Footage of Women and Children
MotoGP Cameraman Narrowly Avoids Pedro Acosta Crash at Hungarian Grand Prix
Wizz Air passengers screamed as storm-battered flight diverts to Bologna
European postal services halt U.S. deliveries after Trump imposes new tariffs
Urban explorer finds abandoned luxury restaurant left to decay
Fidesz leader labels Péter Magyar a ‘bluffer’ amid escalating political spat
French rope park operator arrested for denying entry to Israeli children
Újpest thrashes Zalaegerszeg 4-1 to secure first win in five matches
Profit-margin cap costs retailers 13 billion forints a month, warns trade group
Curiosity rover finds coral-like rock on Mars hinting at watery past
U.S. green policy rollback drives investors to Europe’s sustainable finance market
Special funerals rise in Hungary: boat, aerial and forest burials gain popularity
Hungary’s Kiskunság region turning into semi-desert after extreme drought
Kopasz Bálint wins world kayak 1000 m title in Milan, making him triple world champion
Budapest’s Keleti railway station to close for four weeks for track overhaul
Balaton could be unfit for swimming by 2035 and dry by 2050, scientists warn
Leaked guidelines show Meta’s AI allowed flirty and racist interactions with children
Filming of ‘Emily in Paris’ halted after assistant director dies on set
Filipino guest workers sue after Hungary moves to deport them for pregnancy
Ukraine Declares De Facto War on Hungary and Slovakia with Terror Drone Strikes on Their Gas Lifeline
A monster hit and a billion-dollar toy empire
Animated K-pop Musical ‘KPop Demon Hunters’ Becomes Netflix’s Most-Watched Original Animated Film
Canada: Nurse Suspended and Fined 93 Thousand Dollars After Stating the World’s Most Well-Known Fact Since the Creation of Adam and Eve, That There Are Only Two Genders
Elon Musk tweeted, “Europe is dying”
Far-Right Activist Convicted of Incitement Changes Gender and Demands: "Send Me to a Women’s Prison" | The Storm in Germany
Hungary Criticizes Ukraine: "Violating Our Sovereignty"
Will this be the first country to return to negative interest rates?
U.S. Treasury Secretary Whitney Bessent Backs Stablecoins to Boost Treasury Demand
Spain to Declare Disaster Zones After Massive Wildfires
Three-Minute Battery Swap Touted as Future of EVs
Beijing Military Parade to Showcase Weapons Advances
×