Austria is poised to embark on its third round of coalition talks, as the conservative Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) and the Social Democratic Party (SPÖ) prepare to negotiate in the wake of the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) securing significant parliamentary gains in the recent September 30, 2024 elections.

Although official talks are scheduled to commence this week, Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen, despite not having formally invited the party leaders, has indicated his preference for a coalition between the ÖVP and SPÖ, during consultations held last Thursday with their respective leaders, Christian Stocker and Andreas Babler.

This marks another attempt at coalition-building, following a series of negotiations that have failed to yield results over the past 100 days.

Both the ÖVP, which had previously considered sharing power with the FPÖ from January, and the liberal NEOS party, which currently holds around 10% in support, have attempted to find common ground but faced setbacks.

Historically, a coalition between the ÖVP and SPÖ has dominated Austrian politics for decades, during which they collectively secured about 90% of the electoral votes.

However, the current political landscape has shifted significantly, and the two parties now only hold a slim majority with a single mandate.

Reports suggest that the two traditional parties began preliminary discussions on Friday, with assertions from both sides that an agreement could be formalized as early as February 26, 2025. This urgency is underscored by Austria's ongoing economic recession, with a budget deficit reported at €18 billion, and a government still led by the prior ÖVP-Green coalition, which is functioning under temporary authority, primarily through Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg.

Following unsuccessful earlier discussions that included the FPÖ, ÖVP leaders have signaled readiness to reengage with the SPÖ, provided that Babler does not lead the negotiations.

They contend that Babler’s approach has been inflexible and not conducive to necessary reforms.

However, Babler has strengthened his negotiating position with the support of Michael Ludwig, the mayor of Vienna and head of the SPÖ in the province, who is in direct contact with Stocker to facilitate a cooperative dialogue.

In an interview with the Vienna Kurier, Ludwig expressed the critical juncture Austria faces, acknowledging the heightened anxiety surrounding the potential leadership of FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl.

This fear has arguably catalyzed cooperation among centrist forces.

Reports indicate that Ludwig has offered Stocker the chancellorship along with key ministries, including the interior and foreign ministries, which the FPÖ had been keen to obtain.

Despite prior coalition talks faltering due to trust issues between the FPÖ and ÖVP, the continued rise in FPÖ's popularity poses significant challenges for mainstream parties.

The FPÖ's electoral strength has surged in recent months, indicating a growing voter base, particularly in regions where they currently govern alongside the ÖVP in five out of nine states.

Analysts note that local cooperation often proves more effective than national negotiations, as local leaders rely on personal relationships to navigate governance.

The political climate has become increasingly polarized, with fears circulating about the rise of illiberal ideologies threatening cultural values in Austria.

As coalition negotiations commence, public sentiment remains skeptical, reflecting disillusionment with past government partnerships characterized by minimal reforms and opportunistic compromises.

Simultaneously, analogies are drawn with broader European trends of increasing difficulty in coalition formation as right-wing populism gains traction in multiple countries.

In Germany, for instance, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is anticipated to secure a notable number of parliamentary seats, further complicating coalition possibilities post-election.

Meanwhile, in the Netherlands, the recent agreement involving the Freedom Party (PVV) raises questions about the implications of incorporating such parties into government structures.

Overall, the precarious balance between far-right ascendancy and traditional party coalitions sets a complex stage for Austria's political future as it endeavors to address pressing economic and social challenges.