Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

COVID-19 infection rate plummets in England, two studies reveal

COVID-19 infection rate plummets in England, two studies reveal

Experts welcome the drop - but say the research "lays bare unacceptable socioeconomic and ethnic inequalities within our society".

Two wide-scale COVID-19 surveys have found that cases are falling in England, confirming that lockdown is working to suppress the virus.

Imperial College London's REACT study - one of the largest and most authoritative on coronavirus - found that infections had fallen by more than two-thirds since the last time it reported in mid-January.

Public Health England's weekly surveillance report also indicated that infections and hospital admissions fell across all regions between 8 and 14 February.

Last time it did the survey, REACT found that 1 in 63 people currently had coronavirus. But following the latest research, it estimates that one in 196 people are infected.

This means that infections are now at a similar level to where they were when REACT reported in September.

The researchers estimate that the national R number for England is between 0.69 and 0.76, meaning the outbreak is decreasing across the country.

Meanwhile, PHE's surveillance report shows that case rates dropped in all age groups and across all regions, with the highest rate of infection among 30 to 39-year-olds at 192.5 per 100,000.

Case rates are now lowest in the South West at 87.4 per 100,000 and highest in the East Midlands at 176.7 per 100,000.

Hospital admissions for the virus have dropped from 19.4 per 100,000 in the previous week to 14.64 during the latest week.

The highest numbers of hospital admissions are in the West Midlands, at a rate of 20.58, the survey shows.

Dr Yvonne Doyle, PHE's medical director, cautioned that infection levels were still higher than in September.

"The number of new infections is higher than the end of September and remains concerning. This could increase very quickly if we do not follow the current measures," she said.

But she added: "Our efforts are working as case rates, hospitalisation rates and deaths are slowly falling."

Professor Paul Elliott, director of the programme at Imperial, called the REACT results "encouraging", saying they showed that "lockdown measures are effectively bringing infections down".

He added: "It's reassuring that the reduction in numbers of infections occurred in all ages and in most regions across the country."

This uniform decrease in age groups means that there is no evidence that the vaccination programme is behind the fall in infections. If that was the case, the researchers said, they would expect to see a bigger drop among people aged 65 and over.

REACT tested more than 85,000 volunteers between 4 and 13 of February to examine levels of infection in the general population.

Its large size makes its findings significant, as does the fact that it had previously reported no drop in infections 10 days into lockdown.

However, the researchers warned that although the trend was good, the level of cases was still too high for comfort, as lots of patients continued to be admitted into hospital.

They warned that any route out of lockdown needed to be "closely monitored". The prime minister is due to set out his roadmap for releasing restrictions on 22 February.

Experts welcomed the news, but said the REACT study posed questions for Boris Johnson ahead of his announcement, because it indicated possible regional and ethnic inequalities in the fall in cases.

The researchers found that "large household size, living in a deprived neighbourhood, and Asian ethnicity were all associated with increased prevalence".

Dr Tom Wingfield, Senior Clinical Lecturer and Honorary Consultant Physician at the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, said: "This again lays bare the unacceptable socioeconomic and ethnic inequalities within our society.

"In retrospect, the easing of lockdown restrictions after the first COVID-19 wave in 2020 was too early and took place at a time when the NHS Test and Trace system had limited coverage and was not functioning optimally.

"We need to learn from this as we lift the current lockdown measures and not make the same mistakes again."

According to REACT, although the number of infections fell everywhere, the biggest fall was in the south, with a very dramatic fall in London.

The areas with the highest prevalence are now the North West and North East. In the North East, the REACT team estimate that R is probably above 1.

This repeats the pattern that emerged following the first lockdown, although experts noted that the other large infection survey, which is conducted by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), did not find a similar regional trend.

"These regional differences are something to keep an eye on as more data emerge from REACT and from the ONS survey," said Professor Kevin McConway, Emeritus Professor of Applied Statistics at The Open University.

"We're so lucky here to have both of these surveys, that provide relatively unbiased estimates of infections across England, so that we can see how they compare.

"Most countries of the world don't even have one such survey."

AI Disclaimer: An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system generated the content of this page on its own. This innovative technology conducts extensive research from a variety of reliable sources, performs rigorous fact-checking and verification, cleans up and balances biased or manipulated content, and presents a minimal factual summary that is just enough yet essential for you to function as an informed and educated citizen. Please keep in mind, however, that this system is an evolving technology, and as a result, the article may contain accidental inaccuracies or errors. We urge you to help us improve our site by reporting any inaccuracies you find using the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page. Your helpful feedback helps us improve our system and deliver more precise content. When you find an article of interest here, please look for the full and extensive coverage of this topic in traditional news sources, as they are written by professional journalists that we try to support, not replace. We appreciate your understanding and assistance.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Vatican hosts first Catholic LGBTQ pilgrimage
Apple Unveils iPhone 17 Series, iPhone Air, Apple Watch 11 and More at 'Awe Dropping' Event
France joins Eurozone’s ‘periphery’ as turmoil deepens, say investors
France Faces New Political Crisis, again, as Prime Minister Bayrou Pushed Out
Nayib Bukele Points Out Belgian Hypocrisy as Brussels Considers Sending Army into the Streets
France, at an Impasse, Heads Toward Another Government Collapse
The Country That Got Too Rich? Public Spending Dominates Norway Election
EU Proposes Phasing Out Russian Oil and Gas by End of 2027 to End Energy Dependence
More Than 150,000 Followers for a Fictional Character: The New Influencers Are AI Creations
EU Prepares for War
Trump Threatens Retaliatory Tariffs After EU Imposes €2.95 Billion Fine on Google
Tesla Board Proposes Unprecedented One-Trillion-Dollar Performance Package for Elon Musk
Gold Could Reach Nearly $5,000 if Fed Independence Is Undermined, Goldman Sachs Warns
Uruguay, Colombia and Paraguay Secure Places at 2026 World Cup
Trump Administration Advances Plans to Rebrand Pentagon as Department of War Instead of the Fake Term Department of Defense
Big Tech Executives Laud Trump at White House Dinner, Unveil Massive U.S. Investments
Tether Expands into Gold Sector with Profit-Driven Diversification
‘Looks Like a Wig’: Online Users Express Concern Over Kate Middleton
Florida’s Vaccine Revolution: DeSantis Declares War on Mandates
Trump’s New War – and the ‘Drug Tyrant’ Fearing Invasion: ‘1,200 Missiles Aimed at Us’
"The Situation Has Never Been This Bad": The Fall of PepsiCo
At the Parade in China: Laser Weapons, 'Eagle Strike,' and a Missile Capable of 'Striking Anywhere in the World'
The Fashion Designer Who Became an Italian Symbol: Giorgio Armani Has Died at 91
Putin Celebrates ‘Unprecedentedly High’ Ties with China as Gazprom Seals Power of Siberia-2 Deal
China Unveils New Weapons in Grand Military Parade as Xi Hosts Putin and Kim
Rapper Cardi B Cleared of Liability in Los Angeles Civil Assault Trial
Google Avoids Break-Up in U.S. Antitrust Case as Stocks Rise
Couple celebrates 80th wedding anniversary at assisted living facility in Lancaster
Information Warfare in the Age of AI: How Language Models Become Targets and Tools
The White House on LinkedIn Has Changed Their Profile Picture to Donald Trump
"Insulted the Prophet Muhammad": Woman Burned Alive by Angry Mob in Niger State, Nigeria
Trump Responds to Death Rumors – Announces 'Missile City'
Druzhba Pipeline Incident Sparks Geopolitical Tensions
Cost of Opposition Leader Péter Magyar's Economic Plan Revealed
Germany in Turmoil: Ukrainian Teenage Girl Pushed to Death by Illegal Iraqi Migrant
United Krack down on human rights: Graham Linehan Arrested at Heathrow Over Three X Posts, Hospitalised, Released on Bail with Posting Ban
Asian and Middle Eastern Investors Avoid US Markets
Ray Dalio Warns of US Shift to Autocracy
Eurozone Inflation Rises to 2.1% in August
Russia and China Sign New Gas Pipeline Deal
Von der Leyen's Plane Hit by Suspected Russian GPS Interference in an Incident Believed to Be Caused by Russia or by Pro-Peace or by Anti-Corruption European Activists
China's Robotics Industry Fuels Export Surge
Suntory Chairman Resigns After Police Probe
Gold Price Hits New All-Time Record
UK Fintechs Explore Buying US Banks
Greece Suspends 5% of Schools as Birth Rate Drops
Apollo to Launch $5 Billion Sports Investment Vehicle
Bolsonaro Trial Nears Close Amid US-Brazil Tension
European Banks Push for Lower Cross-Border Barriers
Poland's Offshore Wind Sector Attracts Investors
×