Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

Where is Kazakhstan’s former longtime leader Nursultan Nazarbayev?

Where is Kazakhstan’s former longtime leader Nursultan Nazarbayev?

Analysis: All-encompassing status that took 30 years to build appears to have crumbled in just of a few days

It is a question being asked with increasing urgency by intelligence services, multinational companies and most citizens of Kazakhstan: where is Nursultan Nazarbayev?

Kazakhstan’s leader from 1991 until 2019, Nazarbayev has long been the arbiter of all business and political decisions in the central Asian nation, and the purveyor of an all-encompassing personality cult. In 2019, he handpicked a successor, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, while retaining power behind the scenes. The capital city, along with its airport and main university were all renamed after him.

But since the worst unrest since independence broke out earlier this month, Nazarbayev has been silent and absent from public view. Official figures say 225 people died in the unrest and subsequent crackdown. Meanwhile, the man who personified Kazakhstan for so long has simply disappeared.

Some said he was hiding out on the shores of Lake Geneva. Others suspected he had fled to Dubai. A few whispered conspiratorially that he may be dead. In fact, according to a number of sources, he remains in Kazakhstan, probably in the capital, Nur-Sultan, the city that bears his name.

“My best information as of today is that Nazarbayev is alive, and furious negotiations are under way with Tokayev about the redistribution of assets, spoils and rents,” said a former western government official who is well connected in Kazakhstan.

Tokayev, once a loyalist, has used the crackdown to strip power from his former benefactor and members of Nazarbayev’s family, some of whom are accused of using the protest mood in the country to unseat Tokayev and seize power.

“The power struggle continues. There is no guarantee things will end smoothly,” the former western official said.

Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has used the crackdown on the unrest to strip power from his former benefactor.


One source, claiming direct knowledge, insisted Nazarbayev is in China, but Yermukhamet Yertysbayev, a former minister and Nazarbayev adviser, said he believed his former boss was still in ~Kazakhstan. “Negotiations are ongoing, but it is clear the Nazarbayev era is over,” said Yertysbayev, adding that he blamed the recent violence on “reactionary and conservative forces from the Nazarbayev clan”.

While Tokayev has not criticised the former leader by name, there are signs that the personality cult is over. A statue toppled during the riots has not been repaired; street signs for Nazarbayev Avenue that were pulled down in Almaty, the country’s largest city, have not been reaffixed.

Authorities have arrested the former head of the security services, the Nazarbayev loyalist Karim Masimov, on charges of attempting to seize power. On Saturday, it was announced that two of Nazarbayev’s sons-in-law had been fired from their positions in key state companies. Other relatives are known to have fled the country.

Many in the elite were now rushing to declare their loyalty to Tokayev, said one well-connected business source, adding that any purge would hopefully be limited to those in Nazarbayev’s family and inner circle. “Tokayev is a sensible guy and he knows how important the image of the country is. He will act smoothly and carefully. He will not spray bullets with a machine gun, he will pick people off accurately with a sniper rifle.”

After the 2019 transition, it seemed Nazarbayev’s official status as “Leader of the Nation”, and his role as head of the powerful security council, meant his safety and revered status were guaranteed. Instead, the image that took 30 years to build has crumbled in the space of a few days.

“Many people are moving from the Nazarbayev camp to the side of President Tokayev,” said Yertysbayev, who appeared to be engaged in exactly that manoeuvre himself, airing thoughts that would have been suicidal to utter publicly just a few weeks ago.

“I think Nazarbayev didn’t watch the great film of Francis Ford Coppola The Godfather attentively enough,” said Yertysbayev. “There is no doubt that he is the father and founder of the Kazakh independent state, but he’s a living person and he has his minuses. And the biggest is his sentimental love for his family and clan. I think it’s unacceptable for a head of state.”

The charred remains of the assembly hall at the mayor’s office building in Almaty after rioting earlier in January.


The pervasion of Nazarbayev family members and their associates through state companies and various money-making enterprises was something that others in the elite found grating, and is one reason why supposedly loyal figures have been willing to change their tune so quickly.

The spectacle is likely to prove instructive for other autocrats in the region, notably the Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko and Russia’s Vladimir Putin, both of whom were rumoured to be considering the “Nazarbayev option” as a transition scenario.

Putin, whose current term expires in 2024, recently signed a law that would enable him to remain president until 2036, but analysts had also touted a Nazarbayev-like “father of the nation” role that would allow him a safe and prosperous retirement from frontline politics while retaining ultimate control. Suddenly, that looks a less secure option.

Putin has thrown his weight behind Tokayev, offering him the military support of a Russia-led alliance to help regain control. It is likely that he made this support contingent on a safety guarantee for Nazarbayev. However, Putin will also have noted the speed at which Nazarbayev’s supposed devoted supporters deserted the former leader.

“It will be used as an argument that no transition is possible, other than a transition from the current president to himself,” said Ekaterina Schulmann, a Moscow-based political scientist.

In Kazakhstan, people are waiting to see whether Nazarbayev will ever appear publicly again, and whether Tokayev will fully disown his predecessor, resurrect the personality cult or simply remain silent.

“We’ve had lots of small signals, but we are still waiting for the big one,” said Vyacheslav Abramov, the editor in chief of the vlast.kz news website.

AI Disclaimer: An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system generated the content of this page on its own. This innovative technology conducts extensive research from a variety of reliable sources, performs rigorous fact-checking and verification, cleans up and balances biased or manipulated content, and presents a minimal factual summary that is just enough yet essential for you to function as an informed and educated citizen. Please keep in mind, however, that this system is an evolving technology, and as a result, the article may contain accidental inaccuracies or errors. We urge you to help us improve our site by reporting any inaccuracies you find using the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page. Your helpful feedback helps us improve our system and deliver more precise content. When you find an article of interest here, please look for the full and extensive coverage of this topic in traditional news sources, as they are written by professional journalists that we try to support, not replace. We appreciate your understanding and assistance.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
IMF Upgrades Global Growth Forecast as Weaker Dollar Supports Outlook
House Republicans Move to Defund OECD Over Global Tax Dispute
France Opens Criminal Investigation into X Over Algorithm Manipulation Allegations
Trump Steamrolls EU in Landmark Trade Win: US–EU Trade Deal Imposes 15% Tariff on European Imports
ChatGPT CEO Sam Altman says people share personal info with ChatGPT but don’t know chats can be used as court evidence in legal cases.
Intel Reports Revenue Beats but Sees 81% Rise in Losses
Politics is a good business: Barack Obama’s Reported Net Worth Growth, 1990–2025
UN's Top Court Declares Environmental Protection a Legal Obligation Under International Law
"Crazy Thing": OpenAI's Sam Altman Warns Of AI Voice Fraud Crisis In Banking
The Podcaster Who Accidentally Revealed He Earns Over $10 Million a Year
UK Government Considers Dropping Demand for Apple Encryption Backdoor
Japanese Man Discovers Family Connection Through DNA Testing After Decades of Separation
Russia Signals Openness to Ukraine Peace Talks Amid Escalating Drone Warfare
Switzerland Implements Ban on Mammography Screening
Pogacar Extends Dominance with Stage Fifteen Triumph at Tour de France
President Trump Diagnosed with Chronic Venous Insufficiency After Leg Swelling
CEO Resigns Amid Controversy Over Relationship with HR Executive
NVIDIA Achieves $4 Trillion Valuation Amid AI Demand
Tulsi Gabbard Unveils Evidence Alleging Political Manipulation of Intelligence During Trump Administration
Centrist Criticism of von der Leyen Resurfaces as she Survives EU Confidence Vote
Trump Announces Coca-Cola to Shift to Cane Sugar in U.S. Production
FIFA Pressured to Rethink World Cup Calendar Due to Climate Change
Zelensky Reshuffles Cabinet to Win Support at Home and in Washington
"Can You Hit Moscow?" Trump Asked Zelensky To Make Putin "Feel The Pain"
Church of England Removes 1991 Sexuality Guidelines from Clergy Selection
Superman Franchise Achieves Success with Latest Release
Hungary's Viktor Orban Rejects Agreements on Illegal Migration
Air India Pilot’s Mental Health Records Under Scrutiny
Jamie Dimon Warns Europe Is Losing Global Competitiveness and Flags Market Complacency
Moonshot AI Unveils Kimi K2: A New Open-Source AI Model
Martha Wells Says Humanity Still Far from True Artificial Intelligence
Nvidia Becomes World’s First Four‑Trillion‑Dollar Company Amid AI Boom
EU Delays Retaliatory Tariffs Amid New U.S. Threats on Imports
Trump Proposes Supplying Arms to Ukraine Through NATO Allies
US Opens First Rare Earth Mine in Over 70 Years in Wyoming
Bitcoin Reaches New Milestone of $116,000
Severe Heatwave Claims 2,300 Lives Across Europe
Declining Beer Consumption Signals Cultural Shift in Germany
Emails Leaked: How Passenger Luggage Became a Side Income for Airport Workers
Polish MEP: “Dear Leftists - China is laughing at you, Russia is laughing, India is laughing”
Western Europe Records Hottest June on Record
BRICS Expands Membership with Indonesia and Ten New Partner Countries
Elon Musk Founds a Party Following a Poll on X: "You Wanted It – You Got It!"
China’s Central Bank Consults European Peers on Low-Rate Strategies
France Requests Airlines to Cut Flights at Paris Airports Amid Planned Air Traffic Controller Strike
Poland Implements Border Checks Amid Growing Migration Tensions
Emirates Airline Expands Market Share with New $20 Million Campaign
Amazon Reaches Milestone with Deployment of One Millionth Robot
Yulia Putintseva Calls for Spectator Ejection at Wimbledon Over Safety Concerns
House Oversight Committee Subpoenas Former Jill Biden Aide Amid Investigation into Alleged Concealment of President Biden's Cognitive Health
×