Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

The EU is leading Ukraine into a sovereign debt crisis

The EU is leading Ukraine into a sovereign debt crisis

Brave and economically ravaged Ukraine needs a debt deal to win the coming peace — and grants rather than loans.
European leaders haven’t been shy about trumpeting their €18 billion in loans to Ukraine in 2023 as a tool for“maintain[ing] the macro-financial stability of the country.”For European Council President Charles Michel, such aid shows that Brussels is “very committed to supporting Ukraine as much as we can.”

However, as the war rages and pressure on Ukraine’s economy mounts, basic economics — and centuries of history — paint a much less optimistic portrait of the real impact of Europe’s financial support.

Sometimes in Brussels, ignorance really is bliss.

The reality is that brave, bombarded and economically ravaged Ukraine needs a debt deal to win the coming peace. And if Kyiv is to have a realistic chance of a post-war recovery, this deal should include significant debt restructuring and the transfer of tens of billions of euros in non-repayable grants.

With an inflation rate of 26 percent, interest rates of 25 percent and a one-third decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2022, Ukraine is reaching the limits of existing, conventional economic policy.

Soon, Kyiv will have to resort to the printing press to finance daily public services. And as the Germans, the Dutch and others often like to remind Europe, this will lead to economic catastrophe.

Ukraine has already deferred payments until 2024 on up to €20 billion of its debt held by international investors. And while the approximate €6 billion that the country has saved through this action is important, it pales in comparison to its expected budgetary shortfall of approximately €40 billion in 2023 alone.

Ukraine needs a debt write-off — unfortunately, the EU just wants it to keep borrowing.

The €18 billion worth of loans from the EU will eventually have to be repaid, starting in 2033, and loading on more debt — even of the long-term, practically zero interest variety — reduces Ukraine’s potential for quick recovery from the war. It’s also a nonsensical economic approach, given that Kyiv has already suspended payment on some of its existing obligations.

Overall, the EU’s strategy is simply a recipe for a future Ukrainian sovereign debt crisis.

Remarkably, for all the bombast in Europe about a “Marshall Plan for Ukraine,”it is the United States — not the EU — that has correctly learned from its economic history.

The U.S. has already provided over $13 billion in non-repayable grants to Ukraine, with a further $14.5 billion due in 2023. And this U.S. aid is in addition to the tens of billions of dollars it is spending on military support.

As uncomfortable as it may be, Brussels — and Berlin — know all too well that it was the debt relief granted to Germany in the late 1940s, which laid the foundation for Europe’s post-war economic miracle: A return to economic growth, which eventually led to the creation of a prosperous European Economic Community in 1957.

This “inner core” of the original Marshall Plan wrote off Germany’s post-1933 debts and enabled West Germany to start off with a debt-to-GDP-ratio of under 20 percent, following the London Debt Agreement of 1953. Originally designed as a temporary arrangement, it was solidified upon German reunification in 1990.

It was understood, at the time, that a wartime economic crisis required a pragmatic and flexible political response — just as it does now.

Alas, the EU’s response to financing Ukraine has been anything but historic.

The bloc has allowed its internal splits on economic policy — which were ironically crystallized by German reunification and the creation of the euro — to undermine its strategic objectives in Ukraine. And while it continues to be haunted by the ghosts of Greece and stalked by Hungary, the European Council is unlikely to ever approve a meaningful grant-aid, debt-reduction package for Ukraine.

As a result, the country’s long-term financial sustainability remains compromised by the EU’s decision-making dissonance.

In this context, it is individual EU member countries that should be taking the lead in supplying bilateral grant aid to Ukraine. Although the European Commission is eager to place itself at the head of all EU aid efforts, this is a case of aspirational leadership rather than actual discernible effectiveness, particularly given the delays — and member country squabbling — in distributing existing support.

Direct bilateral grant aid to Ukraine should thus be exempt from the eurozone’s self-imposed budgetary constraints. And unused EU aid in member countries — ranging from the common agricultural policy to the Cohesion Fund — should be permitted to be sent as non-repayable financial support to Ukraine, should any member so wish.

Taking its history and economic scale into account, it’s Germany that should take the lead. And if Berlin can’t overcome its current phobias, it should — at the very least — facilitate other EU member countries that want to follow the U.S. approach.

There will come a time for the political and economic reforms so beloved by Brussels to be proactively linked to future financial support for Ukraine — but now is just not the time.

Both the EU and Germany need to acknowledge their own economic history or, failing that, step aside and let the U.S. and Britain save Ukraine’s economic future. Otherwise, one of the biggest tragedies of this war may well end up being Ukraine’s disillusionment with Europe.
AI Disclaimer: An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system generated the content of this page on its own. This innovative technology conducts extensive research from a variety of reliable sources, performs rigorous fact-checking and verification, cleans up and balances biased or manipulated content, and presents a minimal factual summary that is just enough yet essential for you to function as an informed and educated citizen. Please keep in mind, however, that this system is an evolving technology, and as a result, the article may contain accidental inaccuracies or errors. We urge you to help us improve our site by reporting any inaccuracies you find using the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page. Your helpful feedback helps us improve our system and deliver more precise content. When you find an article of interest here, please look for the full and extensive coverage of this topic in traditional news sources, as they are written by professional journalists that we try to support, not replace. We appreciate your understanding and assistance.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Wave of Complaints Against Apple Over iPhone 17 Pro’s Scratch Sensitivity
Munich Airport Reopens After Second Drone Shutdown
Pro Europe and Anti-War Babiš Poised to Return to Power After Czech Parliamentary Vote
Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs Sentenced to Fifty Months in Prison Following Prostitution Conviction
Altman Says GPT-5 Already Outpaces Him, Warns AI Could Automate 40% of Work
Russian Research Vessel 'Yantar' Tracked Mapping Europe’s Subsea Cables, Raising Security Alarms
Global Cruise Industry Posts Dramatic Comeback with 34.6 Million Passengers in 2024
U.S. Demands Brussels Scrutinize Digital Rules to Prevent Bias Against American Tech
Private Equity’s Fundraising Surge Triggers Concern of European Market Shake-Out
Tokyo’s Jimbōchō Named World’s Coolest Neighbourhood for 2025
European Officials Fear Trump May Shift Blame for Ukraine War onto EU
The Personality Rights Challenge in India’s AI Era
Italy Considers Freezing Retirement Age at 67 to Avert Scheduled Hike
Italian City to Impose Tax on Visiting Dogs Starting in 2026
Study Finds No Safe Level of Alcohol for Dementia Risk
Trump Says Ukraine Can Fully Restore Borders with NATO Backing
Europe Signals Stronger Support for Taiwan at Major Taipei Defence Show
Germany Weighs Excluding France from Key European Fighter Jet Programme
Cyberattack Disrupts Check-in and Boarding Systems at Major European Airports
Björn Borg Breaks Silence: Memoir Reveals Addiction, Shame and Cancer Battle
When Extremism Hijacks Idealism: How the Baader-Meinhof Gang Emerged and Fell
JWST Data Brings TRAPPIST-1e Closer to Earth-Like Habitability
Trump Orders $100,000 Fee on H-1B Visas and Launches ‘Gold Card’ Immigration Pathway
France’s Looming Budget Crisis and Political Fracture Raise Fears of Becoming Europe’s “Sick Man”
Three Russian MiG-31 Jets Breach Estonian Airspace in ‘Unprecedentedly Brazen’ NATO Incident
European manufacturers against ban on polluting cars: "The industry may collapse"
Turkish car manufacturer Togg Enters German Market with 5-Star Electric Sedan and SUV to Challenge European EV Brands
Christian Brueckner Released from German Prison after Serving Unrelated Sentence
World’s Longest Direct Flight China Eastern to Launch 29-Hour Shanghai–Buenos Aires Direct Flight via Auckland in December
New OpenAI Study Finds Majority of ChatGPT Use Is Personal, Not Professional
The conservative right spreads westward: a huge achievement for 'Alternative for Germany' in local elections
Pope Leo Warns of Societal Crisis Over Mega-CEO Pay, Citing Tesla’s Proposed Trillion-Dollar Package
Poland Green-Lights NATO Deployment in Response to Major Russian Drone Incursion
U.S. and China Agree on Framework to Shift TikTok to American Ownership
Le Pen Tightens the Pressure on Macron as France Edges Toward Political Breakdown
Czech Republic signs €1.34 billion contract for Leopard 2A8 main battle tanks with delivery from 2028
Penske Media Sues Google Over “AI Overviews,” Claiming It Uses Journalism Without Consent and Destroys Traffic
Indian Student Engineers Propose “Project REBIRTH” to Protect Aircraft from Crashes Using AI, Airbags and Smart Materials
One in Three Europeans Now Uses TikTok, According to the Chinese Tech Giant
Could AI Nursing Robots Help Healthcare Staffing Shortages?
NATO Deploys ‘Eastern Sentry’ After Russian Drones Violate Polish Airspace
The New Life of Novak Djokovic
German police raid AfD lawmaker’s offices in inquiry over Chinese payments
Volkswagen launches aggressive strategy to fend off Chinese challenge in Europe’s EV market
France Erupts in Mass ‘Block Everything’ Protests on New PM’s First Day
Poland Shoots Down Russian Drones in Airspace Violation During Ukraine Attack
Apple Introduces Ultra-Thin iPhone Air, Enhanced 17 Series and New Health-Focused Wearables
Macron Appoints Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minister Amid Budget Crisis and Political Turmoil
Vatican hosts first Catholic LGBTQ pilgrimage
Apple Unveils iPhone 17 Series, iPhone Air, Apple Watch 11 and More at 'Awe Dropping' Event
×