Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

Projection: COVID-19 leads to lower life expectancy in Sweden in 2020

Projection: COVID-19 leads to lower life expectancy in Sweden in 2020

Life expectancy in Sweden will most likely fall this year, according to a new forecast from Statistics Sweden. There are large differences between the regions. Life expectancy is estimated to decline most in Stockholm County.

In 2020, the number of deaths from COVID-19 has led mortality rates to deviate more than usual on a year-to-year basis. Therefore, Statistics Sweden has produced a report for the purpose of estimating average life expectancy in Sweden in 2020. The forecast is based on the number of deaths in the period from January to August.

“In addition to the observed mortality rates, our main forecast applied the same mortality rates for October to December as in 2019. However, depending on what assumptions are made for the remaining months of the year, life expectancy may be higher or lower than that,” says Örjan Hemström, demographer at Statistics Sweden.

Developments in the mortality rates between January and August indicate a declining life expectancy for both women and men this year; from 84.7 years to 84.4 years for women and from 81.3 years to 80.8 years for men.

“For men, this means, roughly speaking, that the large increase in life expectancy in 2019 will be erased and will return to the 2018 level. For women, the decline is somewhat smaller. This may be the overall largest decline on an annual basis since 1944,” Örjan Hemström points out.

Life expectancy has increased steadily in Sweden in the period 1900-2019, so a decrease stands out.

“There have been some years and shorter periods of stagnation or reduced life expectancy. However, it is still unusual for life expectancy to drop from one year to the next.”

Additional calculations


The report also includes alternative estimations of life expectancy at national level for 2020. These are based on estimates of possible effects of a second wave of COVID-19 infections and on an assumption of lower mortality rates in the autumn than in 2019.

“However, the current increased spread of COVID-19 may well mean more extra deaths in the final two months of the year, which may lead to an even lower average life expectancy in 2020”, says Örjan Hemström.

Between 1 January and 31 August, there were nearly 6 500 more deaths than in the same period in 2019, which is 4 800 more deaths than expected based on the latest population projection for 2020.

“Such a long period of elevated mortality will mostly likely lead to decreased life expectancy. Most extra deaths compared with a year ago occurred in the higher ages, although it appears that mortality rates may be higher in 2020 than in 2019 in all age groups,” Örjan Hemström reflects.

Life expectancy increased by around half a year for both women and men in 2019 compared with 2018, from 84.3 years to 84.7 years and from 80.8 years to 81.3 years respectively.

“Increases this large are rare. The differences between 2018 and 2019 were largely due to lower mortality rates in the ages over 64 years.”

Differences between counties


Mortality rates in the first eight months of 2020 indicate that life expectancy may decline in many counties, but not in all of them. It appears that in Västerbotten County, life expectancy may increase compared with 2019. In Stockholm County, life expectancy is estimated to decline by 1.2 years, from 83.7 years to 82.5 years. Declines of 0.6-0.7 years, which is larger than the national level, are also expected in the counties of Södermanland, Jönköping, and Uppsala.

Number of remaining years at 0 years and at 65 years, by sex. Observations in 2018 and 2019, and various calculations for 2020


Facts: The forecast


The estimation of mortality rates for the last four months of 2020 is based on the number of deaths in the same period the previous year. The population on 30 June 2020 for women and for men in each individual age is used for the calculation of the number of deaths for the full year 2020. The number of deaths per sex and age in the first eight months of 2020 is compared with the number of deaths in the same period in 2019.

In alternative estimations of life expectancy, one assumption of lower mortality rates is used and one assumption of higher mortality rates at the end of 2020 compared with 2019.

AI Disclaimer: An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system generated the content of this page on its own. This innovative technology conducts extensive research from a variety of reliable sources, performs rigorous fact-checking and verification, cleans up and balances biased or manipulated content, and presents a minimal factual summary that is just enough yet essential for you to function as an informed and educated citizen. Please keep in mind, however, that this system is an evolving technology, and as a result, the article may contain accidental inaccuracies or errors. We urge you to help us improve our site by reporting any inaccuracies you find using the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page. Your helpful feedback helps us improve our system and deliver more precise content. When you find an article of interest here, please look for the full and extensive coverage of this topic in traditional news sources, as they are written by professional journalists that we try to support, not replace. We appreciate your understanding and assistance.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
IMF Upgrades Global Growth Forecast as Weaker Dollar Supports Outlook
House Republicans Move to Defund OECD Over Global Tax Dispute
France Opens Criminal Investigation into X Over Algorithm Manipulation Allegations
Trump Steamrolls EU in Landmark Trade Win: US–EU Trade Deal Imposes 15% Tariff on European Imports
ChatGPT CEO Sam Altman says people share personal info with ChatGPT but don’t know chats can be used as court evidence in legal cases.
Intel Reports Revenue Beats but Sees 81% Rise in Losses
Politics is a good business: Barack Obama’s Reported Net Worth Growth, 1990–2025
UN's Top Court Declares Environmental Protection a Legal Obligation Under International Law
"Crazy Thing": OpenAI's Sam Altman Warns Of AI Voice Fraud Crisis In Banking
The Podcaster Who Accidentally Revealed He Earns Over $10 Million a Year
UK Government Considers Dropping Demand for Apple Encryption Backdoor
Japanese Man Discovers Family Connection Through DNA Testing After Decades of Separation
Russia Signals Openness to Ukraine Peace Talks Amid Escalating Drone Warfare
Switzerland Implements Ban on Mammography Screening
Pogacar Extends Dominance with Stage Fifteen Triumph at Tour de France
President Trump Diagnosed with Chronic Venous Insufficiency After Leg Swelling
CEO Resigns Amid Controversy Over Relationship with HR Executive
NVIDIA Achieves $4 Trillion Valuation Amid AI Demand
Tulsi Gabbard Unveils Evidence Alleging Political Manipulation of Intelligence During Trump Administration
Centrist Criticism of von der Leyen Resurfaces as she Survives EU Confidence Vote
Trump Announces Coca-Cola to Shift to Cane Sugar in U.S. Production
FIFA Pressured to Rethink World Cup Calendar Due to Climate Change
Zelensky Reshuffles Cabinet to Win Support at Home and in Washington
"Can You Hit Moscow?" Trump Asked Zelensky To Make Putin "Feel The Pain"
Church of England Removes 1991 Sexuality Guidelines from Clergy Selection
Superman Franchise Achieves Success with Latest Release
Hungary's Viktor Orban Rejects Agreements on Illegal Migration
Air India Pilot’s Mental Health Records Under Scrutiny
Jamie Dimon Warns Europe Is Losing Global Competitiveness and Flags Market Complacency
Moonshot AI Unveils Kimi K2: A New Open-Source AI Model
Martha Wells Says Humanity Still Far from True Artificial Intelligence
Nvidia Becomes World’s First Four‑Trillion‑Dollar Company Amid AI Boom
EU Delays Retaliatory Tariffs Amid New U.S. Threats on Imports
Trump Proposes Supplying Arms to Ukraine Through NATO Allies
US Opens First Rare Earth Mine in Over 70 Years in Wyoming
Bitcoin Reaches New Milestone of $116,000
Severe Heatwave Claims 2,300 Lives Across Europe
Declining Beer Consumption Signals Cultural Shift in Germany
Emails Leaked: How Passenger Luggage Became a Side Income for Airport Workers
Polish MEP: “Dear Leftists - China is laughing at you, Russia is laughing, India is laughing”
Western Europe Records Hottest June on Record
BRICS Expands Membership with Indonesia and Ten New Partner Countries
Elon Musk Founds a Party Following a Poll on X: "You Wanted It – You Got It!"
China’s Central Bank Consults European Peers on Low-Rate Strategies
France Requests Airlines to Cut Flights at Paris Airports Amid Planned Air Traffic Controller Strike
Poland Implements Border Checks Amid Growing Migration Tensions
Emirates Airline Expands Market Share with New $20 Million Campaign
Amazon Reaches Milestone with Deployment of One Millionth Robot
Yulia Putintseva Calls for Spectator Ejection at Wimbledon Over Safety Concerns
House Oversight Committee Subpoenas Former Jill Biden Aide Amid Investigation into Alleged Concealment of President Biden's Cognitive Health
×