A renewed discussion surrounding Hungary's rule of law is emerging, precipitated by a leaked draft of the German coalition agreement.

According to the document, which has come to light, parties preparing to form a coalition in Germany, led by Friedrich Merz, are advocating for stricter actions against what they refer to as the EU's 'most problematic' member states.

While Hungary is not explicitly named, the intention is clear: to consistently apply available enforcement mechanisms such as infringement proceedings, withholding EU funds, and potentially suspending voting rights in the European Council.

The draft coalition plans propose extending the principle of qualified majority voting to foreign and security policy issues within the EU, aiming to avert scenarios where the unilateral opposition of a single country obstructs EU sanctions policies.

Péter Balázs, a former Hungarian foreign minister and EU commissioner, indicated that this initiative indicates a move towards activating the last stage of the Article 7 procedure, which addresses severe breaches of rule of law norms by member states.

Currently, Hungary is in the investigation phase of the proceedings initiated by the 2018 Sargentini report, with decisions on penalties pending.

The Article 7 process requires unanimous agreement among member states to impose sanctions, including the suspension of voting rights.

This poses a challenge, as Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has historically pledged to protect Hungary from losing its voting rights.

However, Balázs pointed out that Fico has not publicly supported Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in past votes and has consistently aligned with the majority.

If proceedings are initiated against Slovakia as well, EU legal experts suggest that it is feasible to examine the rule of law statuses of both Hungary and Slovakia concurrently, which would prevent either from voting on the matter.

This could set a precedent where Hungary's voting rights might indeed be suspended due to its frequent use of vetoes that hinder EU consensus.

István Szent-Iványi, a foreign affairs expert, remarked that actions by the German government indicate a commitment to resolving rule of law issues.

He noted previous calls from Estonia's foreign minister and support from Poland and Baltic states for the suspension of Hungary's voting rights.

The coalition's ability to advance the Article 7 process faces complexity due to the need for qualified majority support and potential treaty amendments.

The current discourse revives the implications from ongoing infringement procedures.

Should the EU move forward in May and confirm rule violations, discussions regarding the application of sanctions would follow.

If a qualified majority is achieved, Hungary could face withholding of its allocated EU funds, heightening concerns regarding its EU membership dynamics.

Fico's precarious position could influence how Slovakia approaches the situation, as his coalition's stability may depend on consensus within his ruling party, primarily focusing on foreign policy adaptations that could affect Hungary's standing in the EU.