Voters in Saxony-Anhalt go to the polls on Sunday with the Alternative for Germany on the verge of an unprecedented breakthrough in post-war German politics.

The latest major projection puts the AfD at 41 percent, almost twice the 20.8 percent it won in the state election five years ago, and far ahead of the governing Christian Democratic Union on 23 percent.

If that support is reflected in the ballot box, the AfD would become the largest party by a wide margin and could put its candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, within reach of becoming Germany's first AfD state premier.

An outright AfD majority, however, is not the most likely outcome.

The final ZDF projection before the election gives the Left 11.5 percent, the Social Democrats 8.5 percent and the Greens 6 percent, while the Free Democrats are at 3 percent and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance at 4 percent.

Because parties receiving less than 5 percent normally do not enter the state parliament, the precise performance of smaller parties could have a major effect on the number of seats required for a majority.

Other recent surveys have placed the AfD as high as 43 percent, but the latest ZDF calculation still leaves it short of governing alone.

Siegmund has openly sought an independent AfD government and has previously described his target as 45 percent plus additional support.

The political alternative could be highly complicated.

CDU premier Sven Schulze has ruled out a coalition with both the AfD and the Left.

On the latest numbers, however, a parliamentary majority excluding the AfD could require the CDU, Left, Social Democrats and Greens to cooperate in some form.

That would force parties separated by substantial ideological differences to find a way of keeping the election winner out of government.

The significance of an AfD victory is heightened by the status of its Saxony-Anhalt branch.

The state's domestic intelligence service classified the organisation as a confirmed right-wing extremist movement in 2023 after concluding that important elements of its political programme and rhetoric conflicted with constitutional principles including human dignity and democratic equality.

The authority has documented ethnic-nationalist concepts of citizenship as well as racist, anti-Muslim and antisemitic statements by party officials.

The AfD rejects the assessment and is challenging it legally.

The situation of the national AfD requires an important distinction.

Germany's federal domestic intelligence service announced in May 2025 that it considered the entire party a confirmed right-wing extremist organisation.

In February 2026, however, the Cologne Administrative Court ordered the agency not to classify or treat the federal party that way while the main legal case is pending.

The nationwide AfD therefore cannot currently be officially treated as a confirmed extremist organisation on the basis of that federal designation.

The separate classification of the Saxony-Anhalt state branch predates that dispute.

The AfD's strength is no longer confined to eastern Germany.

Recent nationwide voting-intention surveys consistently place the party at roughly 27 to 28 percent, ahead of Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU and CSU alliance, which is polling around 20 to 22.5 percent.

That is a profound change from the February 2025 federal election, when the AfD received 20.8 percent and the CDU-CSU finished first with 28.5 percent.

Saxony-Anhalt therefore represents an extreme version of a political shift that is increasingly visible across the country rather than an isolated regional phenomenon.

Berlin provides a different but equally fragmented picture ahead of its state election on September 20. The newest BerlinTrend survey puts the CDU first on 21 percent, followed by the Left on 19 percent, with both the Greens and AfD on 18 percent and the Social Democrats on just 11 percent.

A separate poll published two days later places the CDU at 20 percent, the Left at 19 percent and the AfD at 18 percent.

Earlier figures suggesting that the Left was clearly leading Berlin and that the AfD was on 17.7 percent have therefore been overtaken by newer polling.

The Berlin campaign has also been disrupted by a bitter controversy inside the Left over a pro-Palestinian performance at a party event in Neukölln.

Rapper Dahabflex performed a song containing the lines “Yalla Yalla Intifada” and “Death to the IDF” while members of the audience danced and applauded.

Senior Berlin Left candidate Elif Eralp condemned the performance, said calls for violence or killing were unacceptable and demanded consequences.

The Neukölln organisation and a pro-Palestinian group within the Berlin party subsequently defended aspects of the event and argued that the performer had been misrepresented.

The episode has exposed a significant internal dispute over Israel, antisemitism and the boundaries of political protest, but it does not substantiate a blanket description of the entire Left party as antisemitic or allied with radical Islam.

The AfD itself began in 2013 as a primarily euro-sceptic and economically liberal protest party formed during the eurozone debt crisis.

Over the following decade, its centre of gravity shifted sharply toward immigration, national identity and opposition to the political establishment.

The migration crisis of 2015 accelerated that transformation, while nationalist and increasingly radical factions gained influence.

Senior AfD figures have also challenged central elements of Germany's post-war remembrance culture.

Björn Höcke, one of the party's most prominent figures, famously called for a 180-degree change in remembrance policy and criticised Germany's focus on the Nazi period.

The party has meanwhile advocated much warmer relations with Russia, the removal of sanctions and reductions in German support for Ukraine.

The political upheaval has developed alongside years of weak economic performance and wider social strains.

Germany's economy contracted in 2023, was essentially flat in 2024 and expanded by only 0.2 percent in 2025. Growth improved during 2026, with gross domestic product rising 0.2 percent in the second quarter from the previous quarter and 0.9 percent from a year earlier, but the recovery remains modest.

Migration, energy policy, the economic consequences of war in Ukraine, industrial competition, inflation and dissatisfaction with established political institutions have all become central elements of Germany's increasingly polarised political debate.

What Sunday's election can establish is not simply whether the AfD finishes first; the decisive question is whether Germany's long-standing political firewall against it can still produce a workable government when the party commands more than 40 percent of the vote.

If the AfD falls short of a majority, the other parties will face difficult coalition arithmetic and potentially uncomfortable compromises.

If it crosses the threshold needed to govern alone, Saxony-Anhalt would become the first German state led by the AfD and the first state government in the Federal Republic headed by a party whose regional organisation has been officially classified as right-wing extremist.

Polling stations close at 6 p.m. local time on Sunday.

The first projections should show not only whether the AfD has achieved the historic result that opinion surveys indicate, but also whether enough smaller parties have entered parliament to prevent it from controlling a majority of seats.

Two weeks later, voters in Berlin will provide the next major test of how deeply Germany's traditional party system has fractured.