Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

Israel and Chile both led on Covid jabs, so why is one back in lockdown?

Israel and Chile both led on Covid jabs, so why is one back in lockdown?

Analysis: contrasting national outcomes highlight how easily UK could blow its chances

As mass vaccination programmes take hold around the world, some countries have begun to get on top of the virus while others have continued to struggle. Two countries that have streaked ahead with immunisations are Israel and Chile, but as Israel edges back to a new normal, Chile has been plunged back into lockdown. Can the UK and other countries repeat Israel’s success and avoid the setbacks of Chile?

What is happening in Israel?


Israel has recorded dramatic falls in rates of infection, hospital admissions and deaths after running what was the world’s fastest Covid vaccination campaign. The country of 9 million people has administered two shots of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine to more than half its population. Daily life has returned almost completely to a pre-pandemic situation, with shops, hotels, concerts and cinemas open again. That said, restrictions are still in place, such as the need for face masks outside the home and limits on gatherings indoors.

An analysis by Eran Segal, a computational biologist at Israel’s Weizmann Institute of Science, reported that since a January peak in infections, the country had seen daily drops of 96% in cases, 90% in critically ill patients and 85% in deaths. According to health ministry statistics, daily infections have plummeted to the low hundreds – a massive decline since January, when there were 10,000 confirmed infections a day at one point. On Tuesday, the total number of active cases was roughly half that figure.


What is happening in Chile?


Chile is in the enviable position of having vaccinated faster than any other country in the Americas. More than a third of the country’s 18 million people have received at least one shot of either Pfizer/BioNTech or China’s Sinovac Biotech vaccine. However, cases have soared to the point of overwhelming the health system and strict lockdown measures are back in place.

What went wrong?


The speedy vaccination programme appears to have instilled a false sense of security that led the country to ease restrictions too soon without people appreciating the ongoing risks. The country reopened its borders in November and in January introduced permits for Chileans to go on summer holiday. Without strict controls on people entering the country, and the lack of an efficient contact-tracing system, travellers may have brought infections back into the country that were not picked up.

The virus would have had more chance to spread when the schools reopened along with restaurants, shopping malls, casinos, gyms and churches. With transmission rates now so high in the country, a far greater proportion of the population will need to be vaccinated to get on top of the epidemic.


Are the two countries comparable?


Israel’s case has a key difference to that of Chile’s in that it has exclusively administered Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, whereas Chile is using Pfizer/BioNTech and Sinovac Biotech shots. It is unclear what difference, if any, that may have, but the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has been one of the strongest performers in clinical trials. Other differences between the countries – with vastly different societies and demographics, and possibly different virus variants in circulation – can also make comparisons misleading.

It may also be a question of time for Chile. While Israel is enjoying low infection rates now, the effect of the vaccine appeared to have taken longer to establish itself than first thought. In fact, the country suffered its worst rise in infections during the pandemic even after its vaccine drive was in train, with a strict and weeks-long lockdown imposed. That lockdown, similar to the one just put in place in Chile, will also have had an effect on infection rates.

Can the UK achieve what Israel has done?


The UK’s vaccination programme has been a rare highlight in an otherwise disappointing response to the crisis. Having secured early deals for vaccines from multiple manufacturers, the country started inoculations in December and ramped up rates into the spring. More than half of the adult population has now received at least one shot of either the Pfizer/BioNTech or Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, with coverage standing at more than 90% in the most vulnerable over-70s.

But the UK can easily blow it. Prof Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, has said there will definitely be another surge in coronavirus when the UK comes out of lockdown. What is unclear is how bad the resurgence will be and when it will peak. Documents released on Monday by the government’s Sage experts suggest a third wave could peak in late July or August, with one pessimistic but plausible scenario anticipating a situation as severe as that experienced in January when half of all UK Covid deaths occurred. A major driver for that bleak outcome would be if the AstraZeneca vaccine turns out to be less effective at reducing infection, limiting its impact on the spread of the disease.


Difficulties over vaccine supply already threaten to slow the UK’s immunisation programme and scientists modelling the epidemic say that if a slower rollout is not balanced by a slower relaxation of restrictions, we will see more hospital admissions and deaths in any further wave.

Whether the UK can emulate Israel’s apparent success comes down to multiple factors. It is unclear how big a part is played by the vaccines used. Outbreak modellers on Sage assume that the Pfizer vaccine is more effective at preventing infections – and so reducing spread of the virus – than the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine. But there is little real-world data on the potency of the AstraZeneca vaccine when two shots are given three months apart, as is the case in the UK. The initial picture is that the delay improves the immune response, but the impact in the real world is unclear.

Differences in the vaccines are only one factor though. Unlike Israel, the UK is a global travel hub. This makes it much tougher to drive cases down to very low levels without strong – and highly disruptive – protection at the borders. This means cases are likely to be higher when the UK eases restrictions, meaning the epidemic could swiftly pick up again in the millions of people who have not been protected by vaccine.

Both Israel and the UK need to address differences in cultural behaviour, access to vaccines, housing density and vaccine hesitancy. Israel turned to free pizza and beer to encourage younger people – who are less at risk from the virus – to have the vaccine and similar enticements might work in the UK. Patterns of vaccine coverage in the UK show that the immunisation programme could easily result in a patchwork of high and low vaccination areas, with the disease more under control in richer regions and persisting in the more deprived areas.

AI Disclaimer: An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system generated the content of this page on its own. This innovative technology conducts extensive research from a variety of reliable sources, performs rigorous fact-checking and verification, cleans up and balances biased or manipulated content, and presents a minimal factual summary that is just enough yet essential for you to function as an informed and educated citizen. Please keep in mind, however, that this system is an evolving technology, and as a result, the article may contain accidental inaccuracies or errors. We urge you to help us improve our site by reporting any inaccuracies you find using the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page. Your helpful feedback helps us improve our system and deliver more precise content. When you find an article of interest here, please look for the full and extensive coverage of this topic in traditional news sources, as they are written by professional journalists that we try to support, not replace. We appreciate your understanding and assistance.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Altman Says GPT-5 Already Outpaces Him, Warns AI Could Automate 40% of Work
Russian Research Vessel 'Yantar' Tracked Mapping Europe’s Subsea Cables, Raising Security Alarms
Global Cruise Industry Posts Dramatic Comeback with 34.6 Million Passengers in 2024
U.S. Demands Brussels Scrutinize Digital Rules to Prevent Bias Against American Tech
Private Equity’s Fundraising Surge Triggers Concern of European Market Shake-Out
Tokyo’s Jimbōchō Named World’s Coolest Neighbourhood for 2025
European Officials Fear Trump May Shift Blame for Ukraine War onto EU
The Personality Rights Challenge in India’s AI Era
Italy Considers Freezing Retirement Age at 67 to Avert Scheduled Hike
Italian City to Impose Tax on Visiting Dogs Starting in 2026
Study Finds No Safe Level of Alcohol for Dementia Risk
Trump Says Ukraine Can Fully Restore Borders with NATO Backing
Europe Signals Stronger Support for Taiwan at Major Taipei Defence Show
Germany Weighs Excluding France from Key European Fighter Jet Programme
Cyberattack Disrupts Check-in and Boarding Systems at Major European Airports
Björn Borg Breaks Silence: Memoir Reveals Addiction, Shame and Cancer Battle
When Extremism Hijacks Idealism: How the Baader-Meinhof Gang Emerged and Fell
JWST Data Brings TRAPPIST-1e Closer to Earth-Like Habitability
Trump Orders $100,000 Fee on H-1B Visas and Launches ‘Gold Card’ Immigration Pathway
France’s Looming Budget Crisis and Political Fracture Raise Fears of Becoming Europe’s “Sick Man”
Three Russian MiG-31 Jets Breach Estonian Airspace in ‘Unprecedentedly Brazen’ NATO Incident
European manufacturers against ban on polluting cars: "The industry may collapse"
Turkish car manufacturer Togg Enters German Market with 5-Star Electric Sedan and SUV to Challenge European EV Brands
Christian Brueckner Released from German Prison after Serving Unrelated Sentence
World’s Longest Direct Flight China Eastern to Launch 29-Hour Shanghai–Buenos Aires Direct Flight via Auckland in December
New OpenAI Study Finds Majority of ChatGPT Use Is Personal, Not Professional
The conservative right spreads westward: a huge achievement for 'Alternative for Germany' in local elections
Pope Leo Warns of Societal Crisis Over Mega-CEO Pay, Citing Tesla’s Proposed Trillion-Dollar Package
Poland Green-Lights NATO Deployment in Response to Major Russian Drone Incursion
U.S. and China Agree on Framework to Shift TikTok to American Ownership
Le Pen Tightens the Pressure on Macron as France Edges Toward Political Breakdown
Czech Republic signs €1.34 billion contract for Leopard 2A8 main battle tanks with delivery from 2028
Penske Media Sues Google Over “AI Overviews,” Claiming It Uses Journalism Without Consent and Destroys Traffic
Indian Student Engineers Propose “Project REBIRTH” to Protect Aircraft from Crashes Using AI, Airbags and Smart Materials
One in Three Europeans Now Uses TikTok, According to the Chinese Tech Giant
Could AI Nursing Robots Help Healthcare Staffing Shortages?
NATO Deploys ‘Eastern Sentry’ After Russian Drones Violate Polish Airspace
The New Life of Novak Djokovic
German police raid AfD lawmaker’s offices in inquiry over Chinese payments
Volkswagen launches aggressive strategy to fend off Chinese challenge in Europe’s EV market
France Erupts in Mass ‘Block Everything’ Protests on New PM’s First Day
Poland Shoots Down Russian Drones in Airspace Violation During Ukraine Attack
Apple Introduces Ultra-Thin iPhone Air, Enhanced 17 Series and New Health-Focused Wearables
Macron Appoints Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minister Amid Budget Crisis and Political Turmoil
Vatican hosts first Catholic LGBTQ pilgrimage
Apple Unveils iPhone 17 Series, iPhone Air, Apple Watch 11 and More at 'Awe Dropping' Event
France joins Eurozone’s ‘periphery’ as turmoil deepens, say investors
France Faces New Political Crisis, again, as Prime Minister Bayrou Pushed Out
Nayib Bukele Points Out Belgian Hypocrisy as Brussels Considers Sending Army into the Streets
France, at an Impasse, Heads Toward Another Government Collapse
×