Hungary has observed a decrease in fuel prices this week, continuing into the weekend.

According to data from holtankoljak.hu, the gross procurement price for gasoline has dropped by HUF 3, while the wholesale price of diesel fuel remains unchanged.

As a result, average prices on February 14 are reported as follows:

- Gasoline 95: HUF 630 per liter,
- Diesel: HUF 640 per liter.

The price of gasoline could decrease further on Saturday, as noted by Grád Ottó, Secretary General of the Hungarian Mineral Oil Association, indicating that the current figures align with governmental expectations for fuel pricing.

The government has previously urged market players to keep fuel prices competitive relative to neighboring countries.

Regional price disparities exist within the fuel market.

In January, Hungary's gasoline prices were 2.8 percent, or HUF 17 higher than the regional average, while diesel prices were HUF 22, or 3.5 percent above the regional average cost of HUF 631.

Nevertheless, Hungarian fuel prices were lower than those in some neighboring countries.

The Ministry of National Economy reported that the government has succeeded in ensuring households spend less on fuel.

Grád Ottó explained that fluctuations in oil prices have occurred over the past period, influenced by political changes, affecting regional markets differently.

Countries receiving Russian oil through pipelines have distinct purchasing mechanisms, leading to variance in pricing, indicating that Hungary could face different price settings compared to its neighbors.

Moreover, various market conditions can significantly affect fuel prices across neighboring nations.

Ottó also pointed out that the purchasing price of fuel reflects local currency dynamics, as several regional countries do not operate with the euro.

Thus, foreign exchange rates among neighboring countries can substantially alter price comparisons.

Despite the challenges presented by fluctuating market conditions, Ottó reiterated that domestic fuel prices align with government expectations.

Given current market sensitivity, predicting future price changes remains complex.

Previous reports highlighted six factors influencing prices in recent times:

1. The price of Brent crude oil recently fell below $80 per barrel, fluctuating between $76 and $83, before rising again to around $75 as a result of sanctions against Russia announced by the Biden administration.

Gasoline and diesel prices in Hungary have similarly fluctuated, with an overall slight increase.

2. Global oil market forecasts are mixed, with OPEC+ projecting a demand increase of 1.45 million barrels per day, while the International Energy Agency predicts a more conservative expansion of 1.05 million barrels per day by 2025. Significant price increases were also logged in the European gas market due to higher Asian LNG prices, production issues at the Norwegian Sleipner field, and winter weather impacting supplies.

3. Policies under former U.S. President Donald Trump may play a critical role in oil price movements.

Tariffs and sanctions have mixed effects; they could potentially increase oil prices within the U.S. due to imports from Canada and Mexico and could also heighten prices through measures against Iranian and Russian oil exports.

Concurrently, OPEC+ plans to gradually unwind its current production cuts, which could drive prices lower.

4. Supply-demand balance continues to be a crucial determinant for oil prices.

Economic growth and energy requirements from industrialized countries significantly impact oil prices.

Increased demand for fossil fuels, paired with stagnant supply, could lead to higher prices; however, the expansion of electric vehicles may alter long-term oil demand dynamics.

5. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East poses ongoing risks to the oil market.

Increased LNG prices and declining European gas supplies have rendered markets sensitive to abrupt changes.

Escalating geopolitical tensions could quickly influence fuel prices at the pump.

6. Not only international oil market processes but also fluctuations in the Hungarian forint impact fuel pricing, as fuels in Hungary are refined from crude oil quoted in dollars.

A strengthening forint can reduce import costs, while a weakened forint may increase procurement expenses.

Following the news of a telephone call between Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, the dollar fell while the Hungarian forint surged to four-month highs against the euro and three-month highs against the dollar.

President Trump indicated that Saudi Arabia could host his first meeting with President Putin, focusing on ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

The American president is advocating for an immediate ceasefire, while discussions for written assurances on prior support took place in Ukraine.

Grád Ottó noted the significant potential for these talks to impact fuel prices: "If these negotiations fail and hostilities escalate, the market will swiftly react.

However, we now have reasons to hope for greater stability in the fuel and currency markets."

In Hungary, data from the EU's Weekly Oil Bulletin showed that the average price of 95-octane gasoline in January was HUF 635, which is HUF 3 lower than the HUF 638 average in neighboring countries.

The regional average for January was HUF 618, suggesting Hungary’s gasoline prices were higher by HUF 17 or 2.8 percent.

The average monthly price of diesel in Hungary was reported at HUF 653, which was HUF 2 lower than the HUF 655 average in neighboring countries.

Compared to the regional average, Hungarian diesel prices exceeded HUF 631 by HUF 22 or 3.5 percent.