Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

How Worried Should We Be About The New U.K. Coronavirus Variant?

How Worried Should We Be About The New U.K. Coronavirus Variant?

Mathematical modeling suggests that the mutations in this variant make the virus more transmissible. What does that mean for preventive measures — and the new vaccines?

A new variant of the coronavirus is sweeping through England. At the same time, the country is reporting a record-high number of COVID-19 cases – nearly 40,000 on Wednesday — as well as surges in hospitalizations and deaths. In London last week, an estimated 2% of people in private households tested positive for the coronavirus, The Independent reported.

So the big question is: Are these events connected? Is the new variant causing this surge?

Now British scientists are starting to answer that question. And the take-home message is sobering. The new variant, which contains 17 mutations, appears more transmissible and harder to control in terms of spread.

"Given all the biological and epidemiological evidence that has come together in the past few weeks, I think the picture is getting more and more consistent with something pretty serious," says mathematical modeler Nick Davies, who led the study.

Davies is part of a group of scientists in the United Kingdom, called SPI-M, whose job is to use mathematical models to predict how diseases will spread in order to guide policymakers' decisions.

Last week, when health officials announced the rise of this new variant, Davies was skeptical it was responsible for the surge in the U.K.: "Because one possible explanation for a rise in hospitalizations could just be that we've just come out of lockdown in these regions, and maybe people have gone back to more normal movement and contact."

And besides, all viruses mutate. That's normal. The vast majority of time the mutations are harmless. They don't make the virus more dangerous.

But then a few days later, Davies watched a news presentation from South Africa, and his skepticism evaporated. COVID-19 is also surging there. At the same time, scientists there have detected a new variant, which shares surprisingly similarities with the U.K. one. Both versions contain a mutation called N501Y. This mutation has appeared in previous variants and is already known to increase how tightly the virus binds to human cells.

And so Davies went to work. He inserted the data on the new U.K. variant into computer models. He wanted to know why the new variant was spreading so quickly. He tested out four key hypotheses. Could the new variant:

1. Infect people who already had COVID-19?

2. Infect children more easily?

3. Spread more quickly than previous versions?

4. Be more transmissible? (That is, when people catch the new variant, would they be likely to spread it to more people than when they're infected with other versions?)

The mathematical models, published online Wednesday but not yet peer-reviewed, pointed to one of these four hypotheses. "Increased transmissibility is the easiest way for us to explain what we're seeing," Davies says.

Specifically, the study suggests the new variant is about 50% more transmissible than previous versions of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. But the data can't yet rule out the possibility that other factors also contribute to the new variant's domination in England. There's also no evidence the variant causes more severe disease than previous versions.

And scientists don't know why this variant is likely more transmissible. Previous studies, with another variant, suggest the U.K. variant may infect human cells more easily. And it may generate more copies of itself inside a person. "When you swab people who have coronavirus infection, the people who are infected with this new variant tend to have more copies of the virus on the swab," says Davies, who's also part of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.

No matter the underlying reason, policymakers should take this new variant very seriously, says epidemiologist Bill Hanage of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. If it's indeed 50% more transmissible, it will be difficult to stop its spread.

"Given the assumptions in their models, it's really quite hard to avoid a situation very much like what happened last spring, in terms of hospital bed capacity and surges, without a very high rate of vaccination," Hanage says.

That said, Hanage says there's no reason for people to panic or be scared. "It's not a magic virus," he says — that's the message virus expert Ian Mackay at the University of Queensland also wrote on Twitter.

"We have actually come across a large number of ways that we can use to stop it. However, we need to redouble our efforts in that direction."

The variant will likely come to the U.S. — if isn't here already. The study strongly suggests that people should be even more diligent about preventive measures: avoiding large gatherings. wearing masks, physical distancing and washing hands. On top of that, Hanage says, "the vaccine needs to be getting out at a very, very high rate."

Because right now, scientists believe the vaccine will still be effective with this new variant. And Hanage says the quicker we immunize the vulnerable members of a community the safer the whole community will be from the original and future versions of the novel coronavirus.

AI Disclaimer: An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system generated the content of this page on its own. This innovative technology conducts extensive research from a variety of reliable sources, performs rigorous fact-checking and verification, cleans up and balances biased or manipulated content, and presents a minimal factual summary that is just enough yet essential for you to function as an informed and educated citizen. Please keep in mind, however, that this system is an evolving technology, and as a result, the article may contain accidental inaccuracies or errors. We urge you to help us improve our site by reporting any inaccuracies you find using the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page. Your helpful feedback helps us improve our system and deliver more precise content. When you find an article of interest here, please look for the full and extensive coverage of this topic in traditional news sources, as they are written by professional journalists that we try to support, not replace. We appreciate your understanding and assistance.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Altman Says GPT-5 Already Outpaces Him, Warns AI Could Automate 40% of Work
Russian Research Vessel 'Yantar' Tracked Mapping Europe’s Subsea Cables, Raising Security Alarms
Global Cruise Industry Posts Dramatic Comeback with 34.6 Million Passengers in 2024
U.S. Demands Brussels Scrutinize Digital Rules to Prevent Bias Against American Tech
Private Equity’s Fundraising Surge Triggers Concern of European Market Shake-Out
Tokyo’s Jimbōchō Named World’s Coolest Neighbourhood for 2025
European Officials Fear Trump May Shift Blame for Ukraine War onto EU
The Personality Rights Challenge in India’s AI Era
Italy Considers Freezing Retirement Age at 67 to Avert Scheduled Hike
Italian City to Impose Tax on Visiting Dogs Starting in 2026
Study Finds No Safe Level of Alcohol for Dementia Risk
Trump Says Ukraine Can Fully Restore Borders with NATO Backing
Europe Signals Stronger Support for Taiwan at Major Taipei Defence Show
Germany Weighs Excluding France from Key European Fighter Jet Programme
Cyberattack Disrupts Check-in and Boarding Systems at Major European Airports
Björn Borg Breaks Silence: Memoir Reveals Addiction, Shame and Cancer Battle
When Extremism Hijacks Idealism: How the Baader-Meinhof Gang Emerged and Fell
JWST Data Brings TRAPPIST-1e Closer to Earth-Like Habitability
Trump Orders $100,000 Fee on H-1B Visas and Launches ‘Gold Card’ Immigration Pathway
France’s Looming Budget Crisis and Political Fracture Raise Fears of Becoming Europe’s “Sick Man”
Three Russian MiG-31 Jets Breach Estonian Airspace in ‘Unprecedentedly Brazen’ NATO Incident
European manufacturers against ban on polluting cars: "The industry may collapse"
Turkish car manufacturer Togg Enters German Market with 5-Star Electric Sedan and SUV to Challenge European EV Brands
Christian Brueckner Released from German Prison after Serving Unrelated Sentence
World’s Longest Direct Flight China Eastern to Launch 29-Hour Shanghai–Buenos Aires Direct Flight via Auckland in December
New OpenAI Study Finds Majority of ChatGPT Use Is Personal, Not Professional
The conservative right spreads westward: a huge achievement for 'Alternative for Germany' in local elections
Pope Leo Warns of Societal Crisis Over Mega-CEO Pay, Citing Tesla’s Proposed Trillion-Dollar Package
Poland Green-Lights NATO Deployment in Response to Major Russian Drone Incursion
U.S. and China Agree on Framework to Shift TikTok to American Ownership
Le Pen Tightens the Pressure on Macron as France Edges Toward Political Breakdown
Czech Republic signs €1.34 billion contract for Leopard 2A8 main battle tanks with delivery from 2028
Penske Media Sues Google Over “AI Overviews,” Claiming It Uses Journalism Without Consent and Destroys Traffic
Indian Student Engineers Propose “Project REBIRTH” to Protect Aircraft from Crashes Using AI, Airbags and Smart Materials
One in Three Europeans Now Uses TikTok, According to the Chinese Tech Giant
Could AI Nursing Robots Help Healthcare Staffing Shortages?
NATO Deploys ‘Eastern Sentry’ After Russian Drones Violate Polish Airspace
The New Life of Novak Djokovic
German police raid AfD lawmaker’s offices in inquiry over Chinese payments
Volkswagen launches aggressive strategy to fend off Chinese challenge in Europe’s EV market
France Erupts in Mass ‘Block Everything’ Protests on New PM’s First Day
Poland Shoots Down Russian Drones in Airspace Violation During Ukraine Attack
Apple Introduces Ultra-Thin iPhone Air, Enhanced 17 Series and New Health-Focused Wearables
Macron Appoints Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minister Amid Budget Crisis and Political Turmoil
Vatican hosts first Catholic LGBTQ pilgrimage
Apple Unveils iPhone 17 Series, iPhone Air, Apple Watch 11 and More at 'Awe Dropping' Event
France joins Eurozone’s ‘periphery’ as turmoil deepens, say investors
France Faces New Political Crisis, again, as Prime Minister Bayrou Pushed Out
Nayib Bukele Points Out Belgian Hypocrisy as Brussels Considers Sending Army into the Streets
France, at an Impasse, Heads Toward Another Government Collapse
×