Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

How Hungary’s Orban Turned the Ukraine War to His Own Advantage

How Hungary’s Orban Turned the Ukraine War to His Own Advantage

And set an example for other right-wing leaders

Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party is aiming for its fourth consecutive victory in Hungary’s national election on April 3. Former U.S. President Donald Trump has enthusiastically endorsed Orban, returning the favor after Orban endorsed Trump in 2020. A January meeting in Spain brought many of Europe’s far-right forces together to discuss a Europe-wide alliance, assuming Orban would remain in power. Orban has long been proof of concept that an autocrat could masquerade as a democrat and continue to win elections. He had help. In early February, when Orban made a pilgrimage to Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin gave Orban a great election gift of low gas prices as far as the eye could see.

And then Russia invaded Ukraine.

The Ukrainian war seemed at first to wrong-foot many aspirational autocrats because Putin has long been their benefactor. Overnight, Putin became such a pariah that even those who admired his strongman image and sought to imitate his legal destruction of democracy hesitated to defend him. Surely, those who cast their lot with Putin are now in electoral trouble, aren’t they?

Well, no. Orban’s campaign shows how to sidle up to Putin and still run ahead in the polls. Once again, he’s the model for autocratic strongmen the world over who aspire to destroy democracy while acting in its name.

"Orban has used his special “in” with Putin to play the war down the middle.


Since the war began, the Hungarian media, monopolized by Orban’s cronies, are blasting out Russian propaganda. So Hungarians are learning that the Ukrainian war was caused by NATO’s aggressive acts toward Russia, that the Ukrainian government is full of Nazis, that Russian speakers in Eastern Ukraine were threatened with genocide, and that Russian troops have occupied Ukraine’s nuclear plants in order to protect them. Russian activity in Ukraine simply doesn’t look so malign from Hungary.

Against this backdrop, Orban has turned his close connection with Putin into an electoral advantage. He has retroactively recast his February visit to Moscow as a peace mission, showing the benefits of being the only EU leader who has maintained good relations with Putin all these years. Arguing that Hungary should capitalize on this advantage to remain neutral, Orban has scored political points in his re-election campaign by saying that Hungary should keep its distance from the Ukraine war.

Orban’s opponent in the election, Péter Márki-Zay, scored an own goal by first advocating that Hungary should send soldiers directly into Ukraine before revising to say that Hungary should just cooperate with NATO. Orban, making himself out to be the “peace” candidate, has refused the transit of weapons to Ukraine through Hungarian territory and only belatedly agreed that NATO troops could be stationed in Hungary while firmly excluding any participation of Hungarian soldiers in Ukraine’s war. While Orban reluctantly agreed this time on European sanctions against Russia when he saw that EU passions in the matter would make it impossible to refuse, Orban has long opposed Russian sanctions by arguing that they backfire on EU member states. Orban has already indicated that he will veto any sanctions that touch Russia’s energy sector and would therefore affect Putin’s recent promise of low-cost gas.

In short, Orban has used his special “in” with Putin to play the war down the middle: support for the West when strictly necessary; otherwise leaving the door open for Putin.

Orban has even found a way to weaponize the refugees to assist his election campaign. While Orban appeared to participate in the giant European groundswell of support by welcoming Ukrainian refugees to Hungary, the Hungarian state initially contributed little to the effort—neither money nor people. After several weeks, the Hungarian government agreed to give money to Hungarian companies that employ the refugees.

The giant aid operation at the border that Western cameras have broadcast has been led by civic organizations, local mayors, and churches, which have been finding shelter and food for Ukrainians who have been displaced. Just two weeks before a critical national election in which a massive opposition get-out-the-vote campaign should be under way if Orban’s entrenched forces are to be defeated, much of the political opposition is out at the border, helping refugees.

As a master of election manipulation, Orban can even turn many of these refugees into voters. The area of Ukraine closest to the Hungarian border and from which most of the early refugees came is pre–World War I Hungarian territory still inhabited by ethnic Hungarians. A Ukrainian Hungarian who has never lived within the current borders of Hungary even represents Hungary now in the European Parliament. Many other Ukrainians from this region received Hungarian citizenship in the last eight years as part of Orban’s campaign to generate friendly voters in Hungary’s near abroad. With these new Hungarian citizens arriving as refugees just weeks before the election, Orban can plant them in precisely the districts where his party needs extra votes.

Orban has also used the Ukrainian war to get back into the EU’s good graces. While Orban aggressively opposed refugee resettlement in Europe during the 2015 migrant wave from Syria, much to the EU’s consternation, he has been quite eager this time to do his bit for Europe by taking in Ukrainians. And the EU has shown its appreciation. Two months ahead of the election, the European Commission seemed willing to lower the boom on Hungary by triggering a new legal regulation to cut funds to rogue states. But now, given that Hungary and Poland, the other EU miscreant, are welcoming so many refugees, freezing the flow of EU funds for both violating the rule of law and threatening constitutional democracy will be postponed. Orban has taken advantage of this new attitude by asking for even more money from the EU, including a new bill to cover the refugees.

Orban has therefore turned his friendship with Putin from political liability to political advantage. Neck and neck in the polls before the Ukrainian war broke out, Orban has now opened up a lead beyond the margin of error.

What can other right-wing strongmen learn from Orban’s miraculous escape from Putin’s present toxicity? They, too, can leverage their support for Putin into a moderate position on the war.

For example, after initially praising Putin for being so clever by stationing troops all around Ukraine to improve his bargaining position, Trump has now said he thought that Putin was just bluffing. But rather than experiencing blowback from having so fundamentally misjudged Putin, Trump, like Orban, seems to be escaping from the full consequences of his association with the Russian leader. Nikki Haley has recently argued that under Trump, “Putin knew not to mess with the United States,” and nearly two-thirds of Americans in a recent poll agreed that Russia would not have invaded Ukraine if Trump were still president. Several weeks into the war, nearly 68 percent of Trump supporters said that the war was due to the “fecklessness of Joe Biden” and 66 percent said that Putin is the stronger leader. The American QAnon crowd has picked up the Russian story that the United States has bioweapons labs around the world, including in Ukraine, and the war, they believe, was necessary to take out those biolabs. If the U.S. caused the war, they believe, why should Putin take the hit?

This strategy—taking a seemingly moderate position on the war, promoting Russia’s versions of events, and promoting one’s strongman leader as a peacemaker—is catching on beyond Hungary and the United States among such members of the Illiberal International Club of Aspiring Autocrats as Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

Viktor Orban’s campaign for the Hungarian election on April 3 is showing aspiring autocrats how to find a middle ground by advocating the apparently liberal values of listening to both sides, not taking extreme positions, and advocating for peace. But of course, when an illiberal chorus rises up in defense of liberal values, one might suspect that they are not entirely sincere. We’ll soon see how well this facade works for them.

AI Disclaimer: An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system generated the content of this page on its own. This innovative technology conducts extensive research from a variety of reliable sources, performs rigorous fact-checking and verification, cleans up and balances biased or manipulated content, and presents a minimal factual summary that is just enough yet essential for you to function as an informed and educated citizen. Please keep in mind, however, that this system is an evolving technology, and as a result, the article may contain accidental inaccuracies or errors. We urge you to help us improve our site by reporting any inaccuracies you find using the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page. Your helpful feedback helps us improve our system and deliver more precise content. When you find an article of interest here, please look for the full and extensive coverage of this topic in traditional news sources, as they are written by professional journalists that we try to support, not replace. We appreciate your understanding and assistance.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
The conservative right spreads westward: a huge achievement for 'Alternative for Germany' in local elections
Pope Leo Warns of Societal Crisis Over Mega-CEO Pay, Citing Tesla’s Proposed Trillion-Dollar Package
Poland Green-Lights NATO Deployment in Response to Major Russian Drone Incursion
U.S. and China Agree on Framework to Shift TikTok to American Ownership
Le Pen Tightens the Pressure on Macron as France Edges Toward Political Breakdown
Czech Republic signs €1.34 billion contract for Leopard 2A8 main battle tanks with delivery from 2028
Penske Media Sues Google Over “AI Overviews,” Claiming It Uses Journalism Without Consent and Destroys Traffic
Indian Student Engineers Propose “Project REBIRTH” to Protect Aircraft from Crashes Using AI, Airbags and Smart Materials
One in Three Europeans Now Uses TikTok, According to the Chinese Tech Giant
Could AI Nursing Robots Help Healthcare Staffing Shortages?
NATO Deploys ‘Eastern Sentry’ After Russian Drones Violate Polish Airspace
The New Life of Novak Djokovic
German police raid AfD lawmaker’s offices in inquiry over Chinese payments
Volkswagen launches aggressive strategy to fend off Chinese challenge in Europe’s EV market
France Erupts in Mass ‘Block Everything’ Protests on New PM’s First Day
Poland Shoots Down Russian Drones in Airspace Violation During Ukraine Attack
Apple Introduces Ultra-Thin iPhone Air, Enhanced 17 Series and New Health-Focused Wearables
Macron Appoints Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minister Amid Budget Crisis and Political Turmoil
Vatican hosts first Catholic LGBTQ pilgrimage
Apple Unveils iPhone 17 Series, iPhone Air, Apple Watch 11 and More at 'Awe Dropping' Event
France joins Eurozone’s ‘periphery’ as turmoil deepens, say investors
France Faces New Political Crisis, again, as Prime Minister Bayrou Pushed Out
Nayib Bukele Points Out Belgian Hypocrisy as Brussels Considers Sending Army into the Streets
France, at an Impasse, Heads Toward Another Government Collapse
The Country That Got Too Rich? Public Spending Dominates Norway Election
EU Proposes Phasing Out Russian Oil and Gas by End of 2027 to End Energy Dependence
More Than 150,000 Followers for a Fictional Character: The New Influencers Are AI Creations
EU Prepares for War
Trump Threatens Retaliatory Tariffs After EU Imposes €2.95 Billion Fine on Google
Tesla Board Proposes Unprecedented One-Trillion-Dollar Performance Package for Elon Musk
Gold Could Reach Nearly $5,000 if Fed Independence Is Undermined, Goldman Sachs Warns
Uruguay, Colombia and Paraguay Secure Places at 2026 World Cup
Trump Administration Advances Plans to Rebrand Pentagon as Department of War Instead of the Fake Term Department of Defense
Big Tech Executives Laud Trump at White House Dinner, Unveil Massive U.S. Investments
Tether Expands into Gold Sector with Profit-Driven Diversification
‘Looks Like a Wig’: Online Users Express Concern Over Kate Middleton
Florida’s Vaccine Revolution: DeSantis Declares War on Mandates
Trump’s New War – and the ‘Drug Tyrant’ Fearing Invasion: ‘1,200 Missiles Aimed at Us’
"The Situation Has Never Been This Bad": The Fall of PepsiCo
At the Parade in China: Laser Weapons, 'Eagle Strike,' and a Missile Capable of 'Striking Anywhere in the World'
The Fashion Designer Who Became an Italian Symbol: Giorgio Armani Has Died at 91
Putin Celebrates ‘Unprecedentedly High’ Ties with China as Gazprom Seals Power of Siberia-2 Deal
China Unveils New Weapons in Grand Military Parade as Xi Hosts Putin and Kim
Rapper Cardi B Cleared of Liability in Los Angeles Civil Assault Trial
Google Avoids Break-Up in U.S. Antitrust Case as Stocks Rise
Couple celebrates 80th wedding anniversary at assisted living facility in Lancaster
Information Warfare in the Age of AI: How Language Models Become Targets and Tools
The White House on LinkedIn Has Changed Their Profile Picture to Donald Trump
"Insulted the Prophet Muhammad": Woman Burned Alive by Angry Mob in Niger State, Nigeria
Trump Responds to Death Rumors – Announces 'Missile City'
×