Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

Hong Kong Is Sinking Into a Recession With No Recovery in Sight

Hong Kong is facing its first recession since the global financial crisis, with little prospect of an immediate recovery as the city confronts its most violent protests in decades.

From luxury hotels and major shopping malls to neighborhood stores and restaurants in tourist hubs like Central, Causeway Bay and Tsim Sha Tsui, businesses are closing early or seeing fewer customers. Even when things are open, stores and the airport are quiet, as tourists stay away.

The city’s subway network, or MTR, was closed entirely for long stretches during the holiday weekend from Oct. 4 amid the violent backlash to Chief Executive Carrie Lam’s attempt to quell months of protests by invoking a colonial-era emergency law.

The economy in Hong Kong contracted in the second quarter, almost certainly in the third quarter and the data are still deteriorating. The question is how deep and prolonged the pain will be. Once Asia’s manufacturing powerhouse before the rise of mainland China, Hong Kong’s freewheeling consumer and finance-led economy is highly vulnerable to a collapse in confidence that has been delivered by the turmoil.

The city’s government has struggled to make the case that it has the policy tools to arrest the slide while the unrest continues.

“I do not expect to see any strong measures that can instantaneously turn things around,” said Dong Chen, senior Asia economist with Pictet Wealth Management, one of a growing chorus of experts predicting Hong Kong had a second straight quarterly contraction in the three months through September. “The best scenario is after this political unrest they can come up with longer-term planning or measures to solve structural problems.”

The effects of the U.S.-China trade war combined with a lack of tourist spending power also raises the prospect of a contraction for the full year, compared with 2018. The downturn has been rapid, as declining exports and protests have erased any economic momentum from the start of 2019. When Financial Secretary Paul Chan unveiled his budget in February, he forecast annual growth of 2% to 3% -- by August, he had slashed that forecast to zero to 1%.

Many economists see growth for all of 2019 sliding well below 1% -- JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s latest call is 0.3% -- for the weakest reading since 2009.

A variety of key economic indicators have rapidly turned south in the past few months:

Retail sales by value plunged a record 23% in August from a year earlier as demand for luxury goods such as jewelry and watches plummeted.
Tourism arrivals declined almost 40% in August from a year earlier to about 3.6 million visitors, the worst performance since the 2003 SARS epidemic, according to data from the Hong Kong Tourism Board.

Exports are expected to shrink this year to the worst level in a decade, the Hong Kong Trade Development Council warned as it slashed its 2019 growth forecasts.

Sentiment among small- and medium-sized businesses hit fresh lows in August.

The IHS Markit September whole economy purchasing managers’ index reading ticked higher, but still signals contraction at 41.5.

At a press conference Tuesday, Lam said visitor arrivals fell by more than half from Oct. 1-6, the “Golden Week” when mainland tourists usually flood Hong Kong’s shops to snap up luxury goods. Along with likely confirmation of a recession, advance third-quarter GDP figures due Oct. 31 may indicate even weaker growth forecasts for the rest of the year.


Shopping Rout


Hong Kong retailing continues to decline

Source: Hong Kong Census and Statistics Dept.

Hong Kong has had severe economic challenges before. In the early 2000s the SARS epidemic shut down the city amid fears of contracting the deadly virus. Once the all-clear came, though, visitor arrivals and business confidence bounced back. The difference now is that there’s little expectation of a rapid resolution, as positions harden on either side of the barricades.

The lack of foot traffic also means months of weakening sales among retailers at all levels, from the glitzy shops in Central to family-run small businesses. The city’s unemployment level in July ticked higher for the first time in two years, and it’s likely layoffs and store closings will increase in coming months.

“In the short term, we see the economy falling into a recession as growth pillars including trade, tourism, and finance are all under stress. The more significant risk, though, would be the city losing its reputation as a global business and financial center, which significantly undercuts long-term growth prospects.”

In response to the immediate downturn the government announced a $2.4 billion stimulus package in August including measures to benefit citizens and companies, and there may be more spending announced in Lam’s annual policy address Oct. 16. There is an opportunity to increase spending in areas such as welfare, health care services and facilities that could help to deal with longer-term issues, according to Tommy Wu, senior economist with Oxford Economics in Hong Kong.

Given the scale of the current political challenges, the August package already looks like small change, particularly in light of the government’s HK$1.2 trillion ($149.3 billion) in fiscal reserves, as of the end of March.

“A large, timely and targeted fiscal stimulus package including tax rebates and incentives can alleviate the impact of recession and stimulate the economy in the short run,” said Paul Luk, an assistant professor in the department of economics at Hong Kong Baptist University. “The future needs in different welfare areas are known. These areas should have been expanded aggressively a few years back, and it is better late than never to do it now.”

AI Disclaimer: An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system generated the content of this page on its own. This innovative technology conducts extensive research from a variety of reliable sources, performs rigorous fact-checking and verification, cleans up and balances biased or manipulated content, and presents a minimal factual summary that is just enough yet essential for you to function as an informed and educated citizen. Please keep in mind, however, that this system is an evolving technology, and as a result, the article may contain accidental inaccuracies or errors. We urge you to help us improve our site by reporting any inaccuracies you find using the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page. Your helpful feedback helps us improve our system and deliver more precise content. When you find an article of interest here, please look for the full and extensive coverage of this topic in traditional news sources, as they are written by professional journalists that we try to support, not replace. We appreciate your understanding and assistance.
Newsletter

Related Articles

Marc Marquez Claims Victory at Dutch Grand Prix Amidst Family Misfortune
0:00
0:00
Open
Marc Marquez Claims Victory at Dutch Grand Prix Amidst Family Misfortune
0:00
0:00
Close
Marc Marquez Claims Victory at Dutch Grand Prix Amidst Family Misfortune
Germany Votes to Suspend Family Reunification for Asylum Seekers
Budapest Pride Parade Draws 200,000 Participants Amid Government Ban
Southern Europe Experiences Extreme Heat
Xiaomi's YU7 SUV Launch Garners Record Pre-Orders Amid Market Challenges
Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sanchez's Lavish Wedding in Venice
Russia Launches Largest Air Assault on Ukraine Since Invasion
Massive Anti-Government Protests Erupt in Belgrade
Iran Executes Alleged Israeli Spies and Arrests Hundreds Amid Post-War Crackdown
Hungary's Prime Minister Criticizes NATO's Role in Ukraine
EU TO HUNGARY: LET THEM PRIDE OR PREP FOR SHADE. ORBÁN TO EU: STAY IN YOUR LANE AND FIX YOUR OWN MESS.
Hungarian Scientist to Conduct 30 Research Experiments on the International Space Station
NATO Members Agree to 5% Defense Spending Target by 2035
NATO Leaders Endorse Plan for Increased Defence Spending
U.S. Crude Oil Prices Drop Below $65 Amid Market Volatility
International Astronaut Team Launched to Space Station
Macron and Merz: Europe must arm itself in an unstable world
Germany and Italy Under Pressure to Repatriate $245bn of Gold from US Vaults
Iran Intensifies Crackdown on Alleged Mossad Operatives After Sabotage Claims
Trump Praises Iran’s ‘Very Weak’ Response After U.S. Strikes and Presses Israel to Pursue Peace
Oil Prices Set to Surge After US Strikes Iran
BA and Singapore Airlines Cancel Dubai Flights Amid Middle East Tensions
Trump Faces Backlash from MAGA Base Over Iran Strikes
Meta Bets $14 B on Alexandr Wang to Drive AI Ambitions
FedEx Founder Fred Smith, ‘Heart and Soul’ of the Company, Dies at 80
Chinese Factories Shift Away from U.S. Amid Trump‑Era Tariffs
Pimco Seizes Opportunity in Japan’s Dislocated Bond Market
Labubu Doll Drives Pop Mart to Status as China’s Most Valuable Toy Maker
Global Coal Demand Defies Paris Accord Goals
United States Conducts Precision Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Sites
US strikes Iran nuclear sites, Trump says
Telegram Founder: I Will Leave My Fortune to Over 100 of My Children
16 Billion Login Credentials Leaked in Unprecedented Cybersecurity Breach
Senate hearing on who was 'really running' Biden White House kicks off
Hungary Ranked Among the World’s Safest Travel Destinations for 2025
G7 Leaders Fail to Reach Consensus on Key Global Issues
FBI and Senate Investigate Allegations of Chinese Plot to Influence the 2020 Election in Biden’s Favor Using Fake U.S. Driver’s Licenses
Trump Demands Iran's Unconditional Surrender Amid Escalating Conflict
Shock Within Iran’s Leadership: Khamenei’s Failed Plan to Launch 1,000 Missiles Against Israel
Wreck of $17 Billion San José Galleon Identified Off Colombia After 300 Years
Man Convicted of Fraud After Booking Over 120 Free Flights Posing as Flight Attendant
Iran Launches Extensive Missile Attack on Israel Following Israeli Strikes on Nuclear Sites
Beata Thunberg Rebrands as Beata Ernman Amidst Sister's Activism Controversy
Hungarian Parliament Approves Citizenship Suspension Law
Prime Minister Orbán Criticizes EU's Ukraine Accession Plans
Hungarian Delicacies Introduced to Japanese Market
Hungary's Industrial Output Rises Amid Battery Sector Slump
President Sulyok Celebrates 15 Years of Hungarian Unity Efforts
Hungary's Szeleczki Shines at World Judo Championships
Visegrád Construction Trends Diverge as Hungary Lags
×