BRUSSELS – Following a largely cooperative EU summit last week, tensions are rising as EU member states anticipate a contentious debate over the extension of sanctions against Russia.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has previously leveraged Hungary's position within the EU to secure concessions, and with crucial decisions around the sanctions package due by March 15, his government’s next moves are closely watched.

During the recent summit, held on Thursday, EU leaders managed to circumvent Hungary's dissent.

Budapest notably refused to support a joint declaration that the remaining 26 EU leaders approved.

This instance of bypassing Hungary highlights a potential shift in how the EU may handle future disagreements with Budapest, although some diplomats expressed surprise at Orbán's restrained approach during the discussions, where he did not raise contentious issues or seek immediate concessions.

Orbán's apparent tranquility may be strategic, as the upcoming decisions regarding sanctions require unanimous agreement from all 27 EU member states.

This scenario provides Hungary with significant leverage, enabling Orbán to negotiate more vigorously regarding its interests.

The EU's current sanctions, originally imposed in response to the invasion of Ukraine, target over 2,400 individuals and entities identified by the EU as directly undermining Ukrainian sovereignty through restrictive measures like travel bans and asset freezes.

In recent weeks, Hungary has indicated a desire to remove eight individuals from the sanctions list and is also pursuing favorable outcomes in its gas transit negotiations with Ukraine.

The Hungarian government has not publicly specified which individuals it seeks to exempt from the sanctions.

The shift in political dynamics may be influenced by broader international relations, particularly with the United States.

Following a visit to Washington, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó indicated that Hungary expects a response from the EU regarding its energy concerns before engaging in discussions about the sanctions extension.

Tensions have escalated between Hungary, Slovakia, and Ukraine over gas transit agreements, with unresolved talks overseen by the European Commission.

Hungary had previously lifted its veto against a six-month extension of sanctions in January, conditional upon a joint, non-binding statement acknowledging its energy security concerns.

EU ambassadors have several opportunities to negotiate the extension this week, with key meetings scheduled on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday.

Failure to achieve consensus on the sanctions package could lead to an unprecedented lapse in the EU's legal framework surrounding these measures, potentially destabilizing the union's unified stance against Russia.