Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

Can the Chinese economy weather the storm of 2019-nCoV outbreak?

Can the Chinese economy weather the storm of 2019-nCoV outbreak?

Chinese stock markets witnessed sharp falls Monday as they reopened following the end of the Lunar New Year break, reflecting the widespread concern on the negative impact the coronavirus outbreak is having on the country's economy.

Since January 20, when the Chinese President Xi Jinping made remarks on containing the spread of the coronavirus, the nation has been placed on high alert. As the situation escalates, the country has mounted an aggressive offensive against the novel coronavirus. Since January 23, travel in and out of China's Hubei Province, the epicenter of this outbreak, has been severely restricted. Travel restrictions have later expanded to other regions, while people across the country have stepped up precautions and avoided gatherings or nonessential travel. Furthermore, as the Lunar New Year holiday was extended, most businesses have delayed reopening.

All these reactions undeniably will have adverse implications for the country's economy, at a time when it is still reeling from its two-year-long trade tensions with the U.S. and grappling with a slowing economy.

But how big of a blow will it be exactly? And will the country make it through? As there is still uncertainty surrounding how the outbreak will play out in the following weeks, it is hard to have a definitive conclusion and quantify the impact at this stage.

Nevertheless, a look at China's experiences with the 2003 SARS epidemic can shed some light on the current situation, in terms of which sectors will be affected most and how long-lasting the impact will be. And despite all the concerns over 2019-nCoV's negative impact, the conclusion is that there is no need for over-panic or excessive stress.

Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Xineye Bank, pointed out that during the 2003 SARS outbreak, which lasted for three quarters, the types of industries that were affected the most were transport, retail, restaurants and tourism. However, soon after the epidemic was over these industries quickly rebounded. And this should happen this time as well. Meanwhile, he added that over the past 17 years, there have been major changes in the Chinese economy which saw the above-mentioned industries take a smaller percentage in the country's GDP. With this in mind, disruptions felt by these industries should be smaller compared to during the SARS.

Looking at the timing of the outbreaks, Li Xunlei, chief economist and head of research institute at Zhongtai Securities, also noted that the impact the SARS epidemic had on the Chinese economy was mostly felt in the second quarter of 2003 with the growth rates of the four quarters that year being 11.1 percent, 9.1 percent, 10 percent and 10 percent respectively. He predicted that as the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus is happening in the first quarter of 2020, if it doesn't continue into the second quarter, the impact will most likely be limited to the first quarter, the GDP share of which is the lowest among the four quarters.

Another major source of confidence comes from the fact that compared to the SARS outbreak, the 2019 novel coronavirus is less lethal and the Chinese government has acted more resolutely against the virus this time. There is no doubt that since late January, the Chinese government has made combating the coronavirus a national priority, deploying massive efforts to stop its spread. With the constant information sharing with the public and rigorous research efforts, there is a good reason to believe this outbreak can be much more efficiently dealt with than during the SARS episode.

More importantly, past experiences with global epidemics, not only the SARS but also the 2015-16 Zika outbreak and the 2009 H1N1 flu, suggest that the economic shock wave felt during these events are only short-lived. After the outbreaks, economies were always able to bounce back. Economist and Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs Professor Shang-Jin Wei, also wrote in an article, "Looking at [China's] annual real GDP growth rates from 2000 to 2006, it is very hard to see a SARS effect in the data."

Nevertheless, even though the 2019-nCoV outbreak will not likely hurt the fundamentals of the economy, it does not mean the government should be complacent in dealing with its economic fallout, which the country's economists have repeatedly called attention to in recent days.

One concerning issue that has been highlighted is the pressure the 2019-nCoV outbreak put on China's small businesses. Extended holidays and subdued domestic demand will no doubt add to their financial stress. This will consequently have a damning effect on the country's employment, especially considering the most affected industries, such as transport and restaurants, employ a lot of the country's cheap labor. Moreover, if the crisis continues and causes exports to slow down, the labor-intensive and export-oriented companies will also have to lay off workers.

Huang Yiping, professor of economics at the National School of Development (NSD) of Peking University, provided suggestions on dealing with these problems: Firstly, the People's Bank of China should loosen its monetary policy; secondly, policies needs to be instituted to support the new economy and increase online consumption. Third, the government should offer small and medium-sized enterprises tax reduction; fourth, it should also shore up support for people who lost their jobs during the outbreak and strengthen social protections for migrant workers.

In conclusion, the Chinese economy will most certainly be able to weather the storm this time, as it did with the SARS outbreak. However, the government's response to support the economy, especially the country's small businesses, is also crucial and will have long-term impacts on how quick the economy will be able to regain its feet.

AI Disclaimer: An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system generated the content of this page on its own. This innovative technology conducts extensive research from a variety of reliable sources, performs rigorous fact-checking and verification, cleans up and balances biased or manipulated content, and presents a minimal factual summary that is just enough yet essential for you to function as an informed and educated citizen. Please keep in mind, however, that this system is an evolving technology, and as a result, the article may contain accidental inaccuracies or errors. We urge you to help us improve our site by reporting any inaccuracies you find using the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page. Your helpful feedback helps us improve our system and deliver more precise content. When you find an article of interest here, please look for the full and extensive coverage of this topic in traditional news sources, as they are written by professional journalists that we try to support, not replace. We appreciate your understanding and assistance.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Satirical Sketch Sparks Political Spouse Feud in South Korea
Indonesia Quarry Collapse Leaves Multiple Dead and Missing
South Korean Election Video Pulled Amid Misogyny Outcry
Asian Economies Shift Away from US Dollar Amid Trade Tensions
Netflix Investigates Allegations of On-Set Mistreatment in K-Drama Production
US Defence Chief Reaffirms Strong Ties with Singapore Amid Regional Tensions
Vietnam Faces Strategic Dilemma Over China's Mekong River Projects
Malaysia's First AI Preacher Sparks Debate on Islamic Principles
Meta and Anduril Collaborate on AI-Driven Military Augmented Reality Systems
Russia's Fossil Fuel Revenues Approach €900 Billion Since Ukraine Invasion
Alcohol Industry Faces Increased Scrutiny Amid Health Concerns
U.S. Goods Imports Plunge Nearly 20% Amid Tariff Disruptions
Italy Faces Population Decline Amid Youth Emigration
Trump Accuses China of Violating Trade Agreement
OpenAI Faces Competition from Cheaper AI Rivals
Foreign Tax Provision in U.S. Budget Bill Alarms Investors
Russia Accuses Serbia of Supplying Arms to Ukraine
Gerry Adams Wins Libel Case Against BBC
EU Central Bank Pushes to Replace US Dollar with Euro as World’s Main Currency
U.S. Health Secretary Ends Select COVID-19 Vaccine Recommendations
Trump Warns Putin Is 'Playing with Fire' Amid Escalating Ukraine Conflict
India and Pakistan Engage Trump-Linked Lobbyists to Influence U.S. Policy
U.S. Halts New Student Visa Interviews Amid Enhanced Security Measures
Trump Administration Cancels $100 Million in Federal Contracts with Harvard
SpaceX Starship Test Flight Ends in Failure, Mars Mission Timeline Uncertain
King Charles Affirms Canadian Sovereignty Amid U.S. Statehood Pressure
EU Majority Demands Hungary Reverse Anti-LGBTQ+ Laws
Top Hotel Picks for 2025 Stays in Budapest Revealed
Iron Maiden Unveils 2025 Tour Setlist in Budapest
Chinese Film Week Opens in Budapest to Promote Cultural Exchange
Budapest Airport Launches Direct Flights to Shymkent
Von der Leyen Denies Urging EU Officials to Skip Budapest Pride
Alcaraz and Sinner Advance with Convincing Wins at Roland Garros
EU Ministers Lack Consensus on Sanctioning Hungary Over Rule of Law
EU Nations Urge Action Against Hungary's Pride Parade Ban
Putin's Helicopter Reportedly Targeted by Ukrainian Drones
U.S. Considers Withdrawing Troops from Europe
Russia Deploys Motorbike Squads in Ukraine Conflict
Critics Accuse European Court of Human Rights of Overreach
Spain Proposes 100% Tax on Non-EU Holiday Home Purchases
German Intelligence Labels AfD as Far-Right Extremist
Geert Wilders Threatens Dutch Coalition Over Migration Policy
Hungary Faces Multiple Challenges Amid EU Tensions and Political Shifts
Denmark Increases Retirement Age to 70, Setting a European Precedent
Any trade deal with US must be based on respect not threats', says EU commissioner
UK Leads in Remote Work Adoption, Averaging 1.8 Days a Week
Thirteen Killed in Russian Attacks Across Ukraine
High-Profile Incidents and Political Developments Dominate Global News
Netanyahu Accuses Western Leaders of 'Emboldening Hamas'
Ukraine and Russia Conduct Largest Prisoner Exchange of the War
×