Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

Analysis: The looming crisis in Brussels that no one is talking about

Analysis: The looming crisis in Brussels that no one is talking about

She's been a fixture of life in Germany for almost 16 years. But now the political stability that the country has enjoyed for so long under Angela Merkel is coming to an end as she prepares to stand down as Chancellor.

Until recently, the consensus was that despite standing down and letting her successor fight September's federal election, Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU) in Bavaria, would still be the dominant force in German politics.

Last week, a shock poll placed the Green party ahead of the CDU by a margin of 7%. While CDU sources dismissed this as an expected spike in popularity after confirming Annalena Baerbock as their candidate for Chancellor that will die down, it's long been expected that Germany's next coalition would include the Green party in some way.

Subsequent polls have also placed the Greens ahead of Merkel's party on the "Sunday Question," a weekly survey that literally tracks how Germans would vote if elections were held this Sunday.

"Even if the Greens don't win outright, a decent enough share of the vote would force the CDU to cut the Greens a good deal in a coalition deal as they don't have many options for partners," says Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook, executive director of the Project on Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship at the Harvard Kennedy School.

Despite this Green surge, few are expecting any radical policy changes in Germany, as the CDU have adopted numerous Green policies over the past few years and the Greens have drifted rightwards to becoming a centrist party. Indeed, Cem Özdemir, a senior Green politician, said recently that his party would not be radically changing German policy on NATO, European policy or support for Israel, three issues that had been contentious in the past.

The second of those issues should be of comfort to the European Union's top brass in Brussels. Germany, as the wealthiest and largest member state, carries enormous influence in the overall direction of the European project. Under Merkel, Germany was broadly supportive of the EU's agenda, only occasionally throwing its weight around and blocking certain proposals.

Despite the party seemingly having little appetite to make radical changes within the EU, a Green victory in Germany would mark a symbolic end of an era in Brussels.

The European People's Party (EPP), a pan-European center-right group with members from all EU member states, is the dominant political force in Brussels. It has more elected leaders than any other political bloc in the EU and is the most represented in both the European Parliament and the Commission.

To say that the EPP's leadership is closely aligned with the German Chancellor would be an understatement. And Ursula von der Leyen, the current Commission President and EPP member, previously served in Merkel's cabinet. No longer having a center-right conservative in the Bundeskanzleramt would be the strongest indicator yet that Europe's traditional parties are facing an uncertain future.

Ursula von der Leyen, right, the current European Commission President, previously served in Angela Merkel's cabinet.


Daniel Freund, a German Green MEP, explains that two of the biggest forces in European politics, the rise of progressive politics versus right-wing nationalist populism, has squeezed parties like the CDU from both sides.

"The CDU has for a while been a shapeshifting party, adapting in response to whatever its biggest threat is. Not long ago that was the far-right AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) so it went anti-Europe and anti-immigration. Now we are eating up its votes, so it makes sense it would move more in line with us," he says.

Diplomats and officials say they now talk openly about the CDU being weaker than it was even five years ago and is looking like a different party. "In all honesty, von der Leyen could easily be a member of the Green party if you look at what she believes in," says a German diplomat.

Even in the event that the Greens don't win, a Green and Black (CDU/CSU) coalition looks increasingly likely and most observers in Brussels think it would be perfectly stable. However, in just over a year's time, it could run into the other volcano waiting to erupt in European politics.

France's next presidential election is looking far from safe for Emmanuel Macron. Politico's poll of polls for 2022 voting intentions places Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally, one point ahead of Macron. Her party came out on top in the last European elections and is clearly spooking Macron, who is shifting towards Le Pen on issues such as immigration, and has been accused of Islamophobia for his comments on tackling radicalism.

Opinion polls for 2022 presidential election voting intentions place Marine Le Pen one point ahead of Emmanuel Macron.


Anyone who has spent time in Brussels knows that if you want to get things done in Europe, you need to get the French and Germans on the same page. A Green-Black government in Germany and Le Pen presidency in France could make this extremely difficult.

"It's hard to see how a progressive, vehemently pro-EU Germany and nationalist France would be able to agree on huge issues -- like our common policy on China and Russia," says a European diplomat.

Le Pen is known to have links to Russian President Vladimir Putin and it could become a major issue if she becomes a blockage on European attempts to deal with nefarious Russian behavior in Ukraine, in its treatment of opposition figures and in its broader aggression around the world.

And while the Green party is hawkish on the matter of China, in a coalition it is likely Germany would continue its policy of trying to influence change in China by dangling the carrot of greater trade. Le Pen has not said much on China, but has warned against isolating Russia to the point of pushing it in to the arms of China, which we can assume means there is some hostility.

More worryingly for EU integration, Le Pen no longer wants to emulate the UK with a "Frexit," but, along with likeminded nationalists, take the whole thing over from the inside. There are plenty of such politicians scattered across the bloc and a nationalist winning the French presidency would be their single biggest victory since the election of Donald Trump as US president in 2016.

Marine Le Pen is known to have links to Russian President Vladimir Putin.


European politics is changing faster than many in Brussels are willing to admit. "We've already seen big fissures between France and Germany with Macron at the helm. What happens with Le Pen is a total unknown," says Clüver. "I think people are just too paralyzed with fear to think about this, but in reality, it's much more dangerous than the eurozone crisis."

Even in the event of a CDU and Macron victory, the political establishment in Brussels needs to acknowledge that the appetite for something different has been building for a long time. If it doesn't adequately prepare, it might find that old friends in Paris and Berlin stop quite being so deferential to a style of leadership that is increasingly unattractive to their voters.

AI Disclaimer: An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system generated the content of this page on its own. This innovative technology conducts extensive research from a variety of reliable sources, performs rigorous fact-checking and verification, cleans up and balances biased or manipulated content, and presents a minimal factual summary that is just enough yet essential for you to function as an informed and educated citizen. Please keep in mind, however, that this system is an evolving technology, and as a result, the article may contain accidental inaccuracies or errors. We urge you to help us improve our site by reporting any inaccuracies you find using the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page. Your helpful feedback helps us improve our system and deliver more precise content. When you find an article of interest here, please look for the full and extensive coverage of this topic in traditional news sources, as they are written by professional journalists that we try to support, not replace. We appreciate your understanding and assistance.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
US Appeals Court Rules Against Most Trump-Era Tariffs
Germany’s Auto Industry Sheds 51,500 Jobs in First Half of 2025 Amid Deepening Crisis
Bruce Willis Relocated Due to Advanced Dementia
French and Korean Nuclear Majors Clash As EU Launches Foreign Subsidy Probe
EU Stands Firm on Digital Rules as Trump Warns of Retaliation
Getting Ready for the 3rd Time in Its History, Germany Approves Voluntary Military Service for Teenagers
Denmark Confronts U.S. Diplomat Over Covert Trump-Linked Influence in Greenland
Trump Demands RICO Charges Against George Soros and Son for Funding Violent Protests
Taylor Swift Announces Engagement to NFL Star Travis Kelce
France May Need IMF Bailout, Warns Finance Minister
After the Shock of Defeat, Iranians Yearn for Change
Ukraine Finally Allows Young Men Aged Eighteen to Twenty-Two to Leave the Country
The Porn Remains, Privacy Disappears: How Britain Broke the Internet in Ten Days
YouTube Altered Content by Artificial Intelligence – Without Permission
Ukrainian Refugee Iryna Zarutska Fled War To US, Stabbed To Death
Elon Musk Sues Apple and OpenAI Over Alleged App Store Monopoly
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz: “The Current Welfare State Can No Longer Be Financed”
HSBC Switzerland Ends Relationships with Over 1,000 Clients from Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Qatar, and Egypt
Sharia Law Made Legally Binding in Austria Despite Warnings Over 'Incompatible' Values
Dutch Foreign Minister Resigns Amid Deadlock Over Israel Sanctions
Trump and Allies Send Messages of Support to Ukraine on Independence Day Amid Ongoing Conflict
China Reels as Telegram Chat Group Shares Hidden-Camera Footage of Women and Children
MotoGP Cameraman Narrowly Avoids Pedro Acosta Crash at Hungarian Grand Prix
Wizz Air passengers screamed as storm-battered flight diverts to Bologna
European postal services halt U.S. deliveries after Trump imposes new tariffs
Urban explorer finds abandoned luxury restaurant left to decay
Fidesz leader labels Péter Magyar a ‘bluffer’ amid escalating political spat
French rope park operator arrested for denying entry to Israeli children
Újpest thrashes Zalaegerszeg 4-1 to secure first win in five matches
Profit-margin cap costs retailers 13 billion forints a month, warns trade group
Curiosity rover finds coral-like rock on Mars hinting at watery past
U.S. green policy rollback drives investors to Europe’s sustainable finance market
Special funerals rise in Hungary: boat, aerial and forest burials gain popularity
Hungary’s Kiskunság region turning into semi-desert after extreme drought
Kopasz Bálint wins world kayak 1000 m title in Milan, making him triple world champion
Budapest’s Keleti railway station to close for four weeks for track overhaul
Balaton could be unfit for swimming by 2035 and dry by 2050, scientists warn
Leaked guidelines show Meta’s AI allowed flirty and racist interactions with children
Filming of ‘Emily in Paris’ halted after assistant director dies on set
Filipino guest workers sue after Hungary moves to deport them for pregnancy
Ukraine Declares De Facto War on Hungary and Slovakia with Terror Drone Strikes on Their Gas Lifeline
A monster hit and a billion-dollar toy empire
Animated K-pop Musical ‘KPop Demon Hunters’ Becomes Netflix’s Most-Watched Original Animated Film
Canada: Nurse Suspended and Fined 93 Thousand Dollars After Stating the World’s Most Well-Known Fact Since the Creation of Adam and Eve, That There Are Only Two Genders
Elon Musk tweeted, “Europe is dying”
Far-Right Activist Convicted of Incitement Changes Gender and Demands: "Send Me to a Women’s Prison" | The Storm in Germany
Hungary Criticizes Ukraine: "Violating Our Sovereignty"
Will this be the first country to return to negative interest rates?
U.S. Treasury Secretary Whitney Bessent Backs Stablecoins to Boost Treasury Demand
Spain to Declare Disaster Zones After Massive Wildfires
×