Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

A simple guide to the Ukraine-Russia crisis: 5 things to know

A simple guide to the Ukraine-Russia crisis: 5 things to know

Why are Ukraine’s NATO ambitions so controversial? And could an all-out war break out? We answer the critical questions.

NATO allies, fearful of a potential ground invasion by Russia, have stepped up support for Kyiv by sending additional troops and military equipment to Ukraine.

The alliance says its move is in response to Russia’s continued military buildup along the Ukraine border.

Moscow claims its actions are necessary to secure vital security interests and blames NATO for undermining the region’s security.

Here are five things you should know about what’s happening now and what could come next.

Why is there a conflict?


Ukraine, which was part of the Russian empire for centuries before becoming a Soviet republic, won independence as the USSR broke up in 1991. It moved to shed its Russian imperial legacy and forge increasingly close ties with the West.

A decision by Kremlin-leaning Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych to reject an association agreement with the European Union in favour of closer ties with Moscow led to mass protests that saw him removed as leader in 2014.

Russia responded by annexing Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula and throwing its weight behind a separatist rebellion that broke out in Ukraine’s east.

Ukraine and the West accused Russia of sending its troops and weapons to back the rebels. Moscow denied that, saying the Russians who joined the separatists were volunteers.

According to Kyiv, more than 14,000 people have died in the fighting that devastated Donbas, Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland.


For its part, Moscow has strongly criticised the US and its NATO allies for providing Ukraine with weapons and holding joint drills, saying that such moves encourage Ukrainian hawks to try to regain the rebel-held areas by force.

Furthermore, Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly said Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO are a red line, and expressed concern about plans by some NATO members to set up military training centres in Ukraine. This, he has said, would give them a military foothold in the region even without Ukraine joining NATO.

What does Russia want?


It is more about what Russia doesn’t want. Russia does not want Ukraine in NATO – and has said as much in its list of security demands which were sent to the US last December. The demands included a halt to any NATO drills near Russia’s border.

Moscow is still waiting for a response, but many of its ultimatums have been slammed as non-starters by the West. It also wants NATO to withdraw from Eastern Europe.


At the time, Putin said Russia would seek guarantees “that would exclude any further NATO moves eastward and the deployment of weapons systems that threaten us in close vicinity to Russian territory”.

Putin offered the West an opportunity to engage in substantive talks on the issue, adding that Moscow would need not just verbal assurances, but “legal guarantees”.

Ukraine’s admission to the alliance would require the unanimous approval of the 30 states that make up the body.

Will Ukraine join NATO?


Ukraine is not a NATO member, but it wants to be. It is considered a partner of the alliance.

Before being considered for membership, NATO says, Kyiv needs to root out scourges such as corruption.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in December rejected Russian demands to rescind a 2008 commitment to Ukraine that the country would one day become a member.

Stoltenberg maintains that when the time comes to consider the issue, Russia will not be able to veto Ukraine’s accession.

Analysts however say that NATO allies, the United States chief among them, are reluctant to expand their military footprint in the region and further jeopardise their relationship with Moscow.

While US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has voiced support for Ukraine’s membership in NATO, President Joe Biden has been more ambiguous on the question.

Will there be all-out war?


The West is accusing Russia, which has massed 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border, of preparing to invade its pro-Western neighbour.

Biden claims “total unanimity” on how to deal with Russia. The Pentagon has put 8,500 US troops on standby for an Eastern European deployment and NATO said it was sending ships and jets to bolster the region’s defences.

President Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said these actions only added to an already tense atmosphere.

“The United States is escalating tensions,” he told reporters. “We are watching these US actions with great concern.”

Russia denies it has any plans to invade Ukraine and accuses the West of aggravating the situation.

It is uncertain whether war will break out between the two countries but some analysts say Russia could move in on Ukraine to claim a quick, decisive victory and increase its bargaining power in future talks about NATO’s expansion and spheres of influence.

“I think what Russia and Vladimir Putin will be really after would be to defeat the Ukrainian armed forces in the field, inflict a crushing military defeat that humiliates the Ukrainians and by extension create concern that the backing Ukraine has from its allies in the West, the US and UK, is insufficient,” said Samir Puri, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

What happens if Russia invades Ukraine?


Western nations have thrown their support behind Ukraine, but some responses have been tougher than others. The US and UK have supplied weapons, while Germany plans to send a field medical facility next month but will not transfer military equipment.

There has also been much talk of sanctions aimed at punishing Moscow. Publicly, the US and European allies have promised to hit Russia financially like never before if Putin does roll his military into Ukraine. Leaders have given few details, however, arguing it is best to keep Putin guessing.

Cutting Russia out of the SWIFT financial system, which moves money from bank to bank around the globe, would be one of the toughest financial steps they could take, damaging Russia’s economy immediately and in the long term.

The move could cut Russia off from most international financial transactions, including international profits from oil and gas production, which accounts for more than 40 percent of the country’s revenue.

The US also holds one of the most powerful financial weapons against Putin if he invades Ukraine – blocking Russia from access to the US dollar.

Dollars still dominate in financial transactions around the world, with trillions of dollars in play daily.

Finally, the US is considering imposing export controls, potentially cutting Russia off from the high tech that, among other things, helps warplanes and passenger jets fly and powers smartphones.

AI Disclaimer: An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system generated the content of this page on its own. This innovative technology conducts extensive research from a variety of reliable sources, performs rigorous fact-checking and verification, cleans up and balances biased or manipulated content, and presents a minimal factual summary that is just enough yet essential for you to function as an informed and educated citizen. Please keep in mind, however, that this system is an evolving technology, and as a result, the article may contain accidental inaccuracies or errors. We urge you to help us improve our site by reporting any inaccuracies you find using the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page. Your helpful feedback helps us improve our system and deliver more precise content. When you find an article of interest here, please look for the full and extensive coverage of this topic in traditional news sources, as they are written by professional journalists that we try to support, not replace. We appreciate your understanding and assistance.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Russia’s A7 Builds a State-Linked Payments Network Beyond Western Sanctions
AI’s Next Bottleneck Is Power, Not Just Nvidia Chips
Meta Raises AI Spending Target to as Much as $145bn Despite Pressure Over Returns
Danube Drought Exposes Nazi Wrecks and Pushes Central Europe’s Power System to the Brink
Joe Biden’s Cancer Has Spread Beyond His Bones, Hunter Biden Says
Why 2027 Could Be a Strong Year for Stocks—and Why the Forecast Is Fragile
Why Markets May Look Quiet in August After Big Tech Earnings
UK Drought Cuts Harvests and Raises Food-Security Fears
UFO: Pentagon Releases Video of Unidentified Object Tracked Over Middle East
Ukraine Tells Senate Republicans Its Drone War Offers a Blueprint for America
Weight-Loss Drug Boom Tests the Limits of Prescription Advertising Rules
Senate Scrutinises AI-Driven Personalised Pricing
Spain Seeks Mainland Transfers for 1,100 Children Stranded in Ceuta
Spain and Morocco Trade Blame After 72,000 Migrants Enter Ceuta
AI Is Remaking the US Economy, From GDP Growth to iPhone Prices
Europe’s Heat and Drought Are Now Disrupting Power, Shipping and Tourism
Europe’s Drying Rivers Trigger Power Cuts, Factory Shutdowns and Wildfire Emergencies
Record-Low Danube Forces Nuclear Cuts and Emergency Power Curbs
Danube Drought Forces Hungary’s Paks Nuclear Plant Into Full Shutdown
Ceuta Death Toll Rises as Spain and Europe Clash Over Border Response
Valued at $109 Million: F-35B Fighter Jet Crashes in Southern California
Record-Low Danube Exposes Probable Mammoth Remains in Bulgaria
US Says It Has Carried Out Heavy Strikes on Iran After Attempted Attacks on Its Forces
The AI User Nightmare: Private Claude Conversations Leaked to the Internet
Over 24 Hours in the Air: Qantas Airbus Completes Record-Breaking Test Flight
Massive Wildfires Ravage Southern Europe: Fatalities in Greece and Evacuations Across France, Spain, and Turkey
Nvidia Reportedly Takes Vast Texas Data-Centre Lease to Underwrite AI Expansion
FIFA’s Private-Investment Plan for World Cup Rights Draws European Revolt
Apple Briefly Crosses Five Trillion Dollar Valuation as Investors Retreat From AI Bets
Fresh Heatwave Threatens to Rekindle France’s Historic Wildfire Crisis
Following OpenAI's Cyberattack: 'Most Companies Still Do Not Understand What Is Coming'
OpenAI Sued After ChatGPT Allegedly Discouraged Emergency Care Before Near-Fatal Embolism
Miliband Sets Climate and International Law at Centre of UK Diplomacy
Czech Central Bank Governor Rejects Early Euro Entry and Rate-Cut Pressure
Trump Readies New Tariffs as Temporary Global Levy Nears Expiry
Vivienne Westwood Casts Cicciolina, 74, in Its New Autumn Campaign
Dejavu: Germany’s Military Expansion Reshapes Europe’s Strategic Balance With France
Morgan Stanley Builds a Wall Street Lead in AI Infrastructure Finance
High Prices Push Coffee Drinkers Toward Whole Beans and Home Brewing
Trump Draws Boos and Podium Scrutiny at Spain’s World Cup Triumph
Brilliant move: Péter Magyar Moves to Nominate Chess Grandmaster Judit Polgár as Hungary’s President
Spain Defeats Argentina in Extra Time to Win Second World Cup
Current AI Seeks to Build an Open Global AI Infrastructure Outside Big Tech Control
Germany’s Economic Malaise Reopens the Sunday Shopping Debate
Proposed U.S.-Saudi Nuclear Pact Could Permit Limited Uranium Enrichment Under International Safeguards
Netherlands Declares Water Shortage Emergency After Drought Pushes Rivers to Historic Lows
Why Kentucky Fried Chicken Became KFC—and Why the False Explanations Persist
Ukrainian Drones Strike Wildberries Warehouses Deep Inside Russia
Reported CIA Mission Helped Clear the UAE’s Path to Advanced US AI Chips
Artificial Intelligence Capital Fuels Markets While Governments and Regulators Face Mounting Strategic Tests
×