Deutsche Bank Revises Eurozone GDP Outlook for 2023
Deutsche Bank has revised its eurozone GDP growth forecast for 2023 from 0.4% to 0.9%, primarily due to cyclical factors. The US GDP is projected to grow by 2.4% this year, while China's growth is expected to slow from 5.2% to 4.5% in 2024. The German economy shows resilience, and the UK is undergoing a cyclical recovery with GDP growth of 0.8% in 2024.
Deutsche Bank has updated its eurozone GDP growth forecast for 2023 from 0.4% to 0.9%, driven primarily by cyclical rather than structural factors.
Inflation is expected to remain sticky with potential upside risks in 2024, stabilizing to target by 2025.
However, the ECB's monetary policy may see only two rate cuts in 2024, instead of the previously expected three, with the terminal rate for 2026 anticipated between 2% and 2.5%.
In the US, Deutsche Bank forecasts 2.4% GDP growth for 2023 and 2.2% for the following year, amidst potential market volatility due to upcoming elections.
China’s growth is projected to slow from 5.2% in 2023 to 4.5% in 2024, influenced by increased housing supply.
Japan might see an interest rate hike to 1% by early 2026, while India's real GDP is expected to remain strong at 6% to 6.5% annually.
The German economy, showing resilience, is likely to continue benefiting from private household consumption and trade, despite pressures in the housing and energy sectors.
Meanwhile, the UK economy is experiencing a cyclical recovery with anticipated GDP growth of 0.8% in 2024 and 1.5% annually in 2025 and 2026, aided by potential stability from early elections.
Inflation is expected to remain sticky with potential upside risks in 2024, stabilizing to target by 2025.
However, the ECB's monetary policy may see only two rate cuts in 2024, instead of the previously expected three, with the terminal rate for 2026 anticipated between 2% and 2.5%.
In the US, Deutsche Bank forecasts 2.4% GDP growth for 2023 and 2.2% for the following year, amidst potential market volatility due to upcoming elections.
China’s growth is projected to slow from 5.2% in 2023 to 4.5% in 2024, influenced by increased housing supply.
Japan might see an interest rate hike to 1% by early 2026, while India's real GDP is expected to remain strong at 6% to 6.5% annually.
The German economy, showing resilience, is likely to continue benefiting from private household consumption and trade, despite pressures in the housing and energy sectors.
Meanwhile, the UK economy is experiencing a cyclical recovery with anticipated GDP growth of 0.8% in 2024 and 1.5% annually in 2025 and 2026, aided by potential stability from early elections.
Translation:
Translated by AI
