Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

Iran nuclear talks head into deep freeze ahead of midterms

Iran nuclear talks head into deep freeze ahead of midterms

The negotiations to restore the nuclear deal Trump shattered looked to be heading in a good direction. But new demands from Tehran have put it on ice.
The Iran nuclear talks are stalling out again.

Only a few short weeks ago, European diplomats were waltzing through the streets of the Austrian capital, optimistic that 16 months of negotiations to revive the Iran nuclear deal had finally achieved a breakthrough.

But an Iranian tough line — and reports of new uranium enrichment to near-weapon levels — have shattered hopes here that a deal will soon be reconstructed.

In suitably understated language, U.N. nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi revealed his disappointment to reporters on Monday in Vienna: “Engagement with Iran is not at the point that I would really like it to see.”

The indirect negotiations between the U.S, Iran and other world powers are aimed at restoring the 2015 landmark nuclear accord, which lifted many international sanctions on Iran in exchange for strict restrictions on its nuclear program. The deal has been on life support since 2018, when then-President Donald Trump unilaterally walked away from the agreement and reimposed a broad array of sanctions.

In mid-August, it appeared as though Iran was ready to drop a major demand holding up the talks — an explicit guarantee that the U.N. nuclear watchdog probe into its past nuclear activities would be summarily closed. European as well as U.S. diplomats considered the apparent resolution of the issue as a hopeful sign that Iran was ready to close the deal.

But negotiations have faltered again since the beginning of September, when Iran reopened the issue of the probe and asked for further guarantees that would secure Tehran economic benefits of a new deal. Talks now appear headed toward a stalemate until after the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 8, according to European diplomats.

“This is the most likely scenario,” one senior European diplomat said.

The diplomat also said that, for now, further negotiations over a draft agreement “are over.” The U.S. response to Iran’s latest demands, which is still expected, is thus unlikely to prompt more changes to the document.

Under U.S. legislation, Congress must get a vote on any new agreement with Iran after a 30-day review period. In the midst of a heated election campaign in Washington, choosing to undertake such a controversial vote and debate is highly unlikely, according to European diplomats.

In its most recent feedback on the latest proposal, dated Sept. 1, Tehran doubled down on its request for a guarantee that the investigation into the origin of nuclear traces found at three locations in Iran be closed prior to the so-called reimplementation day — which would take place 120 days after a new deal is signed.

Washington and its European partners have categorically refused this demand, maintaining that the investigation will only be closed once the International Atomic Energy Agency confirms that it has received explanations from Iran that are “technically credible.”

Western countries have tried to keep the investigation separate from the nuclear deal and are reluctant to link the two issues. They believe that the nuclear traces could be proof that Iran had a secret nuclear weapons program that ran until approximately 2003.

“In past weeks, we’ve closed some gaps. Iran has moved away from some extraneous demands — demands unrelated to the JCPOA itself,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in Brussels last week. “However, the latest response takes us backwards. And we’re not about to agree to a deal that doesn’t meet our bottom-line requirements. ... If we conclude a deal, it’s only because it will advance our national security.”

In its latest confidential report on the matter, circulated to member states last week and seen by POLITICO, the IAEA says that “Iran has not engaged with the Agency” on the probe. “Consequently, there have been no developments in this reporting period and no one of the outstanding issues have been resolved,” the report reads.

Behruz Kamalvandi, a top official of Iran’s atomic energy organization, was quoted by Fars news agency as describing the IAEA report as a repetition of the previous baseless accusations with “political purposes.”

Asked about this at Monday’s press conference, Grossi said that he “regrets” this but that the accusation is “nothing new.”

“This issue is very straightforward. We found traces of uranium at places that were never declared and that were never supposed to have any nuclear activity, and we are asking questions,” said the IAEA director general. “Explain to me why this is a political use of my authority? This is what the IAEA is supposed to do.”

Grossi confirmed to POLITICO that currently there are no planned high-level meetings between the IAEA and Iran to discuss the probe.

France, Germany and the United Kingdom — the three European powers that are party to the 2015 nuclear deal — issued a joint statement on Friday, equally expressing their frustration with the situation.

“This latest demand raises serious doubts as to Iran’s intentions and commitment to a successful outcome on the JCPOA,” the three countries said, referring to the official name of the deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

The senior Western diplomat said that the IAEA Board of Governors, which is meeting in Vienna this week, will likely not pass another resolution criticizing Iran for its lack of cooperation. But the issue will certainly be debated by the Board, the diplomat added.

Meanwhile, Iran’s nuclear program continues to grow.

In a second confidential report sent to member states last week, the U.N. nuclear watchdog estimated that Iran had 55.6 kilograms of uranium enriched up to 60 percent, an increase of 12.5 kilograms since May.

Enrichment to 60 percent fissile purity can be converted easily into weapons-grade 90 percent. Experts say that Iran’s current stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium is sufficient for one nuclear bomb, if enriched further. Building an actual weapon, however, requires additional steps and time, as well as a decision by the Iranian regime to do so.

The IAEA report, seen by POLITICO, also says that Iran’s total stockpile of enriched uranium has grown to 3940.9 kilograms, an increase of 131.6 kilograms since May.

Under the original 2015 nuclear deal, Iran is allowed to enrich uranium to at 3.67 percent — sufficient for medical purposes — and its total stockpile cannot exceed 300 kilograms.

Iran has also dramatically enhanced its use of advanced centrifuges, which are all banned under the original 2015 nuclear deal.

In its report, the agency said that Iran’s removal of IAEA cameras in June poses “considerable challenges” to inspectors to “confirm the consistency of Iran’s declared inventory of centrifuges.”

In other words, the agency has issued a clear warning that it may not be able to determine exactly how many centrifuges Iran has spinning — even if the footage of the cameras is returned to the agency and Iran cooperates with the IAEA under a restored nuclear deal.

“Iran’s decision to remove all of the Agency’s equipment previously installed in Iran for surveillance and monitoring activities in relation to the JCPOA has also had detrimental implications for the Agency’s ability to provide assurance of the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear programme,” the report concludes.

Iran has long maintained that its nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes.
AI Disclaimer: An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system generated the content of this page on its own. This innovative technology conducts extensive research from a variety of reliable sources, performs rigorous fact-checking and verification, cleans up and balances biased or manipulated content, and presents a minimal factual summary that is just enough yet essential for you to function as an informed and educated citizen. Please keep in mind, however, that this system is an evolving technology, and as a result, the article may contain accidental inaccuracies or errors. We urge you to help us improve our site by reporting any inaccuracies you find using the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page. Your helpful feedback helps us improve our system and deliver more precise content. When you find an article of interest here, please look for the full and extensive coverage of this topic in traditional news sources, as they are written by professional journalists that we try to support, not replace. We appreciate your understanding and assistance.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Munich Airport Reopens After Second Drone Shutdown
Pro Europe and Anti-War Babiš Poised to Return to Power After Czech Parliamentary Vote
Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs Sentenced to Fifty Months in Prison Following Prostitution Conviction
Altman Says GPT-5 Already Outpaces Him, Warns AI Could Automate 40% of Work
Russian Research Vessel 'Yantar' Tracked Mapping Europe’s Subsea Cables, Raising Security Alarms
Global Cruise Industry Posts Dramatic Comeback with 34.6 Million Passengers in 2024
U.S. Demands Brussels Scrutinize Digital Rules to Prevent Bias Against American Tech
Private Equity’s Fundraising Surge Triggers Concern of European Market Shake-Out
Tokyo’s Jimbōchō Named World’s Coolest Neighbourhood for 2025
European Officials Fear Trump May Shift Blame for Ukraine War onto EU
The Personality Rights Challenge in India’s AI Era
Italy Considers Freezing Retirement Age at 67 to Avert Scheduled Hike
Italian City to Impose Tax on Visiting Dogs Starting in 2026
Study Finds No Safe Level of Alcohol for Dementia Risk
Trump Says Ukraine Can Fully Restore Borders with NATO Backing
Europe Signals Stronger Support for Taiwan at Major Taipei Defence Show
Germany Weighs Excluding France from Key European Fighter Jet Programme
Cyberattack Disrupts Check-in and Boarding Systems at Major European Airports
Björn Borg Breaks Silence: Memoir Reveals Addiction, Shame and Cancer Battle
When Extremism Hijacks Idealism: How the Baader-Meinhof Gang Emerged and Fell
JWST Data Brings TRAPPIST-1e Closer to Earth-Like Habitability
Trump Orders $100,000 Fee on H-1B Visas and Launches ‘Gold Card’ Immigration Pathway
France’s Looming Budget Crisis and Political Fracture Raise Fears of Becoming Europe’s “Sick Man”
Three Russian MiG-31 Jets Breach Estonian Airspace in ‘Unprecedentedly Brazen’ NATO Incident
European manufacturers against ban on polluting cars: "The industry may collapse"
Turkish car manufacturer Togg Enters German Market with 5-Star Electric Sedan and SUV to Challenge European EV Brands
Christian Brueckner Released from German Prison after Serving Unrelated Sentence
World’s Longest Direct Flight China Eastern to Launch 29-Hour Shanghai–Buenos Aires Direct Flight via Auckland in December
New OpenAI Study Finds Majority of ChatGPT Use Is Personal, Not Professional
The conservative right spreads westward: a huge achievement for 'Alternative for Germany' in local elections
Pope Leo Warns of Societal Crisis Over Mega-CEO Pay, Citing Tesla’s Proposed Trillion-Dollar Package
Poland Green-Lights NATO Deployment in Response to Major Russian Drone Incursion
U.S. and China Agree on Framework to Shift TikTok to American Ownership
Le Pen Tightens the Pressure on Macron as France Edges Toward Political Breakdown
Czech Republic signs €1.34 billion contract for Leopard 2A8 main battle tanks with delivery from 2028
Penske Media Sues Google Over “AI Overviews,” Claiming It Uses Journalism Without Consent and Destroys Traffic
Indian Student Engineers Propose “Project REBIRTH” to Protect Aircraft from Crashes Using AI, Airbags and Smart Materials
One in Three Europeans Now Uses TikTok, According to the Chinese Tech Giant
Could AI Nursing Robots Help Healthcare Staffing Shortages?
NATO Deploys ‘Eastern Sentry’ After Russian Drones Violate Polish Airspace
The New Life of Novak Djokovic
German police raid AfD lawmaker’s offices in inquiry over Chinese payments
Volkswagen launches aggressive strategy to fend off Chinese challenge in Europe’s EV market
France Erupts in Mass ‘Block Everything’ Protests on New PM’s First Day
Poland Shoots Down Russian Drones in Airspace Violation During Ukraine Attack
Apple Introduces Ultra-Thin iPhone Air, Enhanced 17 Series and New Health-Focused Wearables
Macron Appoints Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minister Amid Budget Crisis and Political Turmoil
Vatican hosts first Catholic LGBTQ pilgrimage
Apple Unveils iPhone 17 Series, iPhone Air, Apple Watch 11 and More at 'Awe Dropping' Event
France joins Eurozone’s ‘periphery’ as turmoil deepens, say investors
×