Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

Hungary central bank seen raising base rate again next week

Hungary central bank seen raising base rate again next week

The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) is expected to raise its base rate by another 30 basis points at a policy meeting next Tuesday (HUINT=ECI) when its new economic forecasts will show inflation above its target range for the second year running.

The median forecast of 15 economists sees the NBH raising the rate to 2.4% from 2.1%. Ten forecast a 30 bps increase while five predict bigger hikes ranging from 40 bps to 100 bps.

Hungarian annual headline inflation rose to a 14-year-high of 7.4% (HUCPIY=ECI) in November, while the central bank's preferred measure of lasting price trends rose to 5.3%, both sharply above its 2% to 4% target range.

"It is clear that inflation is no longer driven by supply shocks, but second-round effects have manifested," ING economist Peter Virovacz said in a note, projecting inflation above 6% through to the first quarter of next year.

Last week, NBH Governor Gyorgy Matolcsy said price growth would average 4.7% to 5.1% next year, 130 basis points above projections made in September, when it temporarily slowed the pace of rate rises.

While the NBH was the first European Union central bank to start raising rates in June, the surge in Hungarian inflation appears to have caught the NBH off guard and its regional peers hiked rates more aggressively last month.

Since its November policy meeting, the NBH has been forced to raise the interest rate on its one-week deposit facility several times to shore up the forint currency , which last month sank to a record low of 372 per euro.

At 1151 GMT, the currency traded just one percent off that low at 368.7 per euro.

The one-week deposit rate, the tool that the bank uses to tackle short-term financial market volatility, now sits at 3.1%, 100 bps above the base rate, with the next tender due on Thursday.

The deposit rate is seen rising to 3.6% by the end of this year and 4.3% by the end of the second quarter, based on the median projection of five economists who gave a forecast.

Some economists have said however that the divergence between the deposit and base rates could undermine the bank's commitment to policy tightening in the eyes of the market.

"Playing catch-up with the 1W depo rate is needed in our view – we stick to our forecast for the base rate to rise to 3% in December 2021 – a 90bp hike," said economist Agata Urbanska-Giner at HSBC.

AI Disclaimer: An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system generated the content of this page on its own. This innovative technology conducts extensive research from a variety of reliable sources, performs rigorous fact-checking and verification, cleans up and balances biased or manipulated content, and presents a minimal factual summary that is just enough yet essential for you to function as an informed and educated citizen. Please keep in mind, however, that this system is an evolving technology, and as a result, the article may contain accidental inaccuracies or errors. We urge you to help us improve our site by reporting any inaccuracies you find using the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page. Your helpful feedback helps us improve our system and deliver more precise content. When you find an article of interest here, please look for the full and extensive coverage of this topic in traditional news sources, as they are written by professional journalists that we try to support, not replace. We appreciate your understanding and assistance.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
United Nations Calls for Global Action Against Disinformation and Hate Speech Online
Tucker Carlson warns of an inevitable clash in Western societies over mass migration
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman praises the rapid progress of Chinese tech companies.
Poland's President Karol Nawrocki ENDS support for Ukrainian citizens:
Italy's PM Giorgia Meloni highlights record employment and economic growth
Chancellor Friedrich Merz Re-elected as CDU Leader, Opposes AfD Influence
Trump Directs Government to Release UFO and Alien Information
Trump Signs Global 10% Tariffs on Imports
UK Government Considers Law to Remove Prince Andrew from Royal Line of Succession
Two teens arrested in France for alleged terror plot.
US Supreme Court Voids Trump’s Emergency Tariff Plan, Reshaping Trade Power and Fiscal Risk
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis advocates for a ban on minors using social media.
Meanwhile in Time Square, NYC One of the most famous landmarks
Jensen Huang just told the story of how Elon Musk became NVIDIA’s very first customer for their powerful AI supercomputer
Former British Prince Andrew Arrested on Suspicion of Misconduct in Public Office
Former President Yoon Suk Yeol Sentenced to Life in Prison for Abuse of Authority
Unitree Robotics founder Wang Xingxing showcases future robot deployment during Spring Festival Gala.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz calls for real name use on social media.
Italian Police Arrest Man After Alleged Attempt to Abduct Toddler at Bergamo Supermarket, Child Hospitalised With Fractured Femur
British Tourist Arrested at Hong Kong Airport After Meltdown and Vandalism
European Commission Plans Purchase Incentives Limited to Vehicles Manufactured Largely in the EU
French District of Pas-de-Calais Introduces Immediate License Suspension for Drivers Using Mobile Phones
Volkswagen Targets €60 Billion in Cost Reductions as Sales Decline and Global Pressures Intensify
Eighty-Year-Old Lottery Winner Sentenced to 16.5 Years for Drug Trafficking
Rubio Calls for Sweeping U.N. Reform, Saying It Has Failed to End Wars in Gaza and Ukraine
10,000 Condoms Distributed at Winter Olympics 2026 Athlete Village Depleted Within 72 Hours
Poland's President Advocates for Evaluating Independent Nuclear Weapons Development
Mayor of Serdobsk in Russia’s Penza Region Resigns After Housing Certificates Granted to Migrant Family Trigger Public Outcry
China’s EV Makers Face Mandatory Return to Physical Buttons and Door Handles in Driver-Distraction Safety Overhaul
UK Green Party Considering Proposal to Legalize Heroin for an Inclusive Society
OpenAI and DeepCent Superintelligence Race: Artificial General Intelligence and AI Agents as a National Security Arms Race
We will protect them from the digital Wild West.’ Another country will ban social media for under-16s
Heineken announces cut of 6,000 jobs due to declining beer demand
Apple iPhone Lockdown Mode blocks FBI data access in journalist device seizure
Belgium: Man Charged with Rape After Faking Payment to Sex Worker
KPMG Urges Auditor to Relay AI Cost Savings
Canada Opens First Consulate in Greenland Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions
China unveils plans for a 'Death Star' capable of launching missile strikes from space
Investigation Launched at Winter Olympics Over Ski Jumpers Injecting Hyaluronic Acid
U.S. State Department Issues Urgent Travel Warning for Citizens to Leave Iran Immediately
Wall Street Erases All Gains of 2026; Bitcoin Plummets 14% to $63,000
Eighty-one-year-old man in the United States fatally shoots Uber driver after scam threat
Political Censorship: French Prosecutors Raid Musk’s X Offices in Paris
AI Invented “Hot Springs” — Tourists Arrived and Were Shocked
France Begins Phasing Out Zoom and Microsoft Teams to Advance Digital Sovereignty
Tech Market Shifts and AI Investment Surge Drive Global Innovation and Layoffs
Global Shifts in War, Trade, Energy and Security Mark Major International Developments
Markets Jolt as AI Spending, US Policy Shifts, and Global Security Moves Drive New Volatility
Tesla Ends Model S and X Production and Sends $2 Billion to xAI as 2025 Revenue Declines
Starmer Signals UK Push for a More ‘Sophisticated’ Relationship With China in Talks With Xi
×