Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

Finland should be ready to join NATO, with or without Sweden

Finland should be ready to join NATO, with or without Sweden

While there are several reasons why simultaneous accession remains the preferred option for all involved, Finland should be open to the prospect of joining without Sweden, Helmi Pillai argues.

If Turkey is willing to ratify Finland’s NATO membership, there is little reason for Helsinki to wait for Stockholm.

Last May, Finland and Sweden announced their joint NATO bids in response to Russia’s February full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Turkey and Hungary are the only NATO allies yet to ratify their membership.

Hungary has suggested it will begin the process this spring, but Turkey continues to delay the ratification.


Negotiations under duress


Ankara claims that Sweden, in particular, has failed to extradite or deport pro-Kurdish activists and that it has not done enough to crack down on supporters of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).

In January, the ratification process reached a breaking point following protests in Stockholm, which included the burning of a Quran by a far-right politician and the pro-Kurdish group's hanging of an effigy inspired by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

A protestor jumps on a banner with the image of Turkish President Erdogan during a demonstration by The Kurdish Democratic Society Center in Stockholm, 21 January 2023


In response, Erdoğan announced that he would no longer support Sweden’s accession to NATO but suggested that Turkey could still ratify Finland’s membership.

This has put Helsinki in a difficult position. Officially, the Finnish leadership remains committed to its joint bid with Sweden.

Yet, recent comments from Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto, Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee Jussi Halla-aho, and Defence Minister Mikko Savola all indicated that Finland might be considering other options.

While Finland should be open to the prospect of joining without Sweden, there are several reasons why simultaneous accession remains the preferred option for all involved.


Finland's NATO bid depends on Erdoğan's election performance


For NATO’s defence planning, the Baltic Sea region would be most effectively defended as one strategic area.

Access to Swedish territory is vital for the security of supply and military mobility of Finland and other NATO allies in Northern Europe.

It would also undermine the alliance’s authority if Turkey was allowed to unilaterally decide who gets to become a member.

Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu shakes hands with Sweden's Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom before holding a press conference in Ankara, 22 December 2022


But if Turkey continues to block Sweden’s membership, Finland must prepare to join NATO on its own.

It is highly improbable that Ankara will ratify Sweden’s membership before the Turkish elections, which are currently due to be held in May.

If the opposition wins, they will probably lift the block on Sweden’s accession. But if Erdoğan remains in power, it is unlikely that he would be in a rush to ratify Sweden’s membership even after the elections.

Blocking the process provides considerable leverage for Ankara, which it could use to, for example, pressure the US to sell Turkey the F-16 fighter jets it is seeking to purchase.


Moscow's threat still looms large


There are several reasons why it would be preferable for at least Finland to join NATO than for both countries to remain outside the alliance.

For NATO, Finland’s membership would allow it to defend its territory in the North more effectively and, thus, improve the security of the whole Baltic Sea region. Sweden, too, would be more secure with all of its neighbours in the alliance.

Politically, it would be difficult for Finland to delay its accession to wait for Sweden after pressuring NATO allies to quickly ratify its membership.

This would probably also be unpopular domestically, considering that more than half of the Finnish population is in favour of joining the alliance before Sweden.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu review warships before the main naval parade marking Russian Navy Day in St Petersburg, 31 July 2022


Geopolitical considerations are also a factor. The threat of Russian aggression looms over both Finland and Sweden, but the two countries are not equally vulnerable.

Finland has a 1340-kilometre-long border with Russia; it was occupied by the Russian empire, fought two wars with the Soviet Union in the 20th century and was subjected to intense Soviet pressure throughout the Cold War.

The same is not true for Sweden, which has no land border with Russia and does not share Finland’s historical baggage.

As long as Russian troops are tied up in Ukraine, there is no immediate threat to Finland, but aggression remains a possibility. This is the reason why Helsinki wants to join NATO in the first place.


Sweden and Finland would remain close friends regardless


Finland’s separate accession could cause some friction with Sweden, but it would be unlikely to cause significant damage to the relationship.

Recent comments by Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and Foreign Minister Tobias Billström suggest that Stockholm understands Helsinki’s urgency in the matter, even if it would prefer to join together.

In any case, it is highly improbable that Finland would join NATO alone without consulting Sweden first.

Finland's PM Sanna Marin, US Vice President Kamala Harris and Sweden's Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson at the Munich Security Conference on 18 February 2023


For the moment, it is unlikely that Finland will actively pursue separate accession, at least before the Turkish elections.

Joining together remains the preferred option for Finland, Sweden and NATO.

But Helsinki must prepare for the possibility that Ankara may continue to block Sweden’s NATO bid after the elections.

If Turkey were willing to ratify Finland’s membership, there would be little reason for Finland to decline the offer.

Despite their close relations, Finland and Sweden are separate countries. And given the context, Finland must prioritise its own security interests.

AI Disclaimer: An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system generated the content of this page on its own. This innovative technology conducts extensive research from a variety of reliable sources, performs rigorous fact-checking and verification, cleans up and balances biased or manipulated content, and presents a minimal factual summary that is just enough yet essential for you to function as an informed and educated citizen. Please keep in mind, however, that this system is an evolving technology, and as a result, the article may contain accidental inaccuracies or errors. We urge you to help us improve our site by reporting any inaccuracies you find using the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page. Your helpful feedback helps us improve our system and deliver more precise content. When you find an article of interest here, please look for the full and extensive coverage of this topic in traditional news sources, as they are written by professional journalists that we try to support, not replace. We appreciate your understanding and assistance.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Ukraine Declares De Facto War on Hungary and Slovakia with Terror Drone Strikes on Their Gas Lifeline
A monster hit and a billion-dollar toy empire
Animated K-pop Musical ‘KPop Demon Hunters’ Becomes Netflix’s Most-Watched Original Animated Film
Canada: Nurse Suspended and Fined 93 Thousand Dollars After Stating the World’s Most Well-Known Fact Since the Creation of Adam and Eve, That There Are Only Two Genders
Elon Musk tweeted, “Europe is dying”
Far-Right Activist Convicted of Incitement Changes Gender and Demands: "Send Me to a Women’s Prison" | The Storm in Germany
Hungary Criticizes Ukraine: "Violating Our Sovereignty"
Will this be the first country to return to negative interest rates?
U.S. Treasury Secretary Whitney Bessent Backs Stablecoins to Boost Treasury Demand
Spain to Declare Disaster Zones After Massive Wildfires
Three-Minute Battery Swap Touted as Future of EVs
Beijing Military Parade to Showcase Weapons Advances
U.S. Tech Stocks Slide on AI Boom Concerns
White House Confirms Talks Over Intel Stake
Trump Suggests U.S. Could Support Ukraine ‘By Air’
Trump Called Viktor Orbán: "Why Are You Using the Veto"
Horror in the Skies: Plane Engine Exploded, Passengers Sent Farewell Messages
AI in Policing: Draft One Helps Speed Up Reports but Raises Legal and Ethical Concerns
Shame in Norway: Crown Princess’s Son Accused of Four Rapes
Apple Begins Simultaneous iPhone 17 Production in India and China
A Robot to Give Birth: The Chinese Announcement That Shakes the World
Finnish MP Dies by Suicide in Parliament Building
Outrage in the Tennis World After Jannik Sinner’s Withdrawal Storm
Class Action Lawsuit Against Volkswagen: Steering Wheel Switches Cause Accidents
UK Government Tries to Sue 4chan for Breaching Online Safety Act
Dogfights in the Skies: Airbus on Track to Overtake Boeing and Claim Aviation Supremacy
Tim Cook Promises an AI Revolution at Apple: "One of the Most Significant Technologies of Our Generation"
Are AI Data Centres the Infrastructure of the Future or the Next Crisis?
Miles Worth Billions: How Airlines Generate Huge Profits
Cambridge Dictionary Adds 'Skibidi,' 'Delulu,' and 'Tradwife' Amid Surge of Online Slang
Zelenskyy Returns to White House Flanked by European Allies as Trump Pressures Land-Swap Deal with Putin
The CEO Who Replaced 80% of Employees for the AI Revolution: "I Would Do It Again"
"Every Centimeter of Your Body Is a Masterpiece": The Shocking Meta Document Revealed
Character.ai Bets on Future of AI Companionship
China Ramps Up Tax Crackdown on Overseas Investments
Japanese Office Furniture Maker Expands into Bomb Shelter Market
Intel Shares Surge on Possible U.S. Government Investment
Hurricane Erin Threatens U.S. East Coast with Dangerous Surf
EU Blocks Trade Statement Over Digital Rule Dispute
EU Sends Record Aid as Spain Battles Wildfires
Beijing is moving into gold and other assets, diversifying away from the dollar
China Requires Data Centres to Source Majority of AI Chips Locally, For Technological Sovereignty
Escalating Clashes in Serbia as Anti-Government Protests Spread Nationwide
Category 5 Hurricane in the Caribbean: 'Catastrophic Storm' with Winds of 255 km/h
Trump Backs Putin’s Land-for-Peace Proposal Amid Kyiv’s Rejection
Digital Humans Move Beyond Sci-Fi: From Virtual DJs to AI Customer Agents
YouTube will start using AI to guess your age. If it’s wrong, you’ll have to prove it
Jellyfish Swarm Triggers Shutdown at Gravelines Nuclear Power Station in Northern France
OpenAI’s ‘PhD-Level’ ChatGPT 5 Stumbles, Struggles to Even Label a Map
Zelenskyy to Visit Washington after Trump–Putin Summit Yields No Agreement
×