Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

El Nino: What is it and how does it impact the weather closer to home?

El Nino: What is it and how does it impact the weather closer to home?

A major El Nino event usually occurs every three to seven years and could last for several months at a time. So far, the hottest year on record is 2016. Here's what you need to know about the global weather event and what it means.

The United Nations has warned of record-breaking heat because of the weather phenomenon El Nino.

However, a Sky News weather expert says we're unlikely to see the effects of a new El Nino in the UK this year.

So what is it and how will it affect us on a global scale?

UN warning

The United Nations has warned that higher global temperatures and possibly new heat records could be seen due to climate change and the return of the El Nino weather phenomenon this year.

For three years, the opposite of El Nino - the cooling La Nina weather pattern - has been dominant in the Pacific Ocean.

This has lowered global temperatures slightly - but 2023 will see the return of the warmer counterpart.

Wilfran Moufouma Okia, head of the UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO), said there was no current estimate of the impact El Nino will have on temperatures.

"El Nino will fuel the temperature globally," he said.

"We feel the effect of El Nino temperatures globally with a slight delay."

The WMO said it could not predict the strength or duration of El Nino.

So far, the world's hottest year on record is 2016. El Nino was particularly strong that year.

The World Meteorological Organisation has warned the global temperature is set to break a key limit for the first time within the next five years - and there is a 98% chance of the hottest year on record being broken during that time.

Dr Leon Hermanson, of the Met Office Hadley Centre, said the record will likely come from a combination of greenhouse gases and El Nino.

What is El Nino?

El Nino is part of a natural cycle, according to Sky News weather presenter Jo Wheeler.

She said: "ENSO - the El Nino-Southern Oscillation - warms and cools the tropical Pacific in a rotation that lasts between one and three years, impacting weather conditions across the world.

"Both El Nino and La Nina have defining characteristics, with El Nino associated with warmer than normal ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific - which leads to rainier cooler conditions in the south and warmer conditions in parts of the north.

"La Nina represents a cooling effect."

With El Nino, the equatorial Pacific Ocean typically gets around three degrees warmer than usual.

With La Nina, it's three degrees colder.

As Jo says, they both set off a series of chain reactions for weather around the world.

The El Nino name - which means "the boy" in Spanish - is said to have originated from "El Nino de Navidad," which translates to The Christmas Child.

It's said that centuries ago Peruvian fishermen named the weather phenomenon after the newborn Christ.

It probably won't surprise you that La Nina - El Nino's opposite - means "the girl".

A major El Nino event usually occurs every three to seven years and could last for several months at a time.

The strongest El Nino episodes were in 1997 to 1998 and 2015 to 2016.

When will the return of El Nino affect UK weather?

So, does El Nino increase the chances of another record-breaking summer here in the UK?

In 2022, the UK recorded temperatures above 40C for the first time ever, where much of England remained under the Met Office's first-ever red warning.


El Nino often peaks during December, the Met Office said on its website.

But as it's in the Pacific, the knock-on effects can take a while to noticeably impact the weather around the world.

So, despite the UN warnings about the return of El Nino this year, we won't be affected for a while.

According to Jo Wheeler: "El Nino will not affect the summer weather here - it'll arrive too late.

"It might affect next year though - if it happens."

For now, La Nina still dominates - with its cooling of the oceans and associated effects.

The Sky News weather presenter added a switch back to El Nino could mean a hotter than usual 2024 in the UK though - and a frostier than usual winter beforehand.

She said: "The WMO suggest that El Nino will arrive by the end of summer which would increase the chances of 'hotter than normal' temperatures in 2024 but also that the preceding winter season will be frosty."

Why does El Nino affect weather in the UK and Europe?


El Nino matters for us because of another key weather phenomenon - the jet stream.

The jet stream is a band of strong eastward winds that carries rain across the Atlantic, often referenced in weather forecasts.

During El Nino winters, northern Europe can be colder and drier, with southern Europe getting more rain - because the jet stream shifts course.

On the flip side, El Nino summers in the UK can be hotter and drier. La Nina summers are often wetter.

However, the Met Office admits these are not hard and fast rules.

Scientific understanding of how El Nino and La Nina - as well as other natural temperature cycles over the world's big oceans - affect the weather across the world, is always evolving.

AI Disclaimer: An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system generated the content of this page on its own. This innovative technology conducts extensive research from a variety of reliable sources, performs rigorous fact-checking and verification, cleans up and balances biased or manipulated content, and presents a minimal factual summary that is just enough yet essential for you to function as an informed and educated citizen. Please keep in mind, however, that this system is an evolving technology, and as a result, the article may contain accidental inaccuracies or errors. We urge you to help us improve our site by reporting any inaccuracies you find using the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page. Your helpful feedback helps us improve our system and deliver more precise content. When you find an article of interest here, please look for the full and extensive coverage of this topic in traditional news sources, as they are written by professional journalists that we try to support, not replace. We appreciate your understanding and assistance.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
White House Eyes Budapest for Peace Talks
Cave Diving Beneath the Streets of Budapest
Another American Restaurant Chain Opens in Budapest
Hungarian Opposition Politician Supports Ukrainian Commander
U.S. Celebrates Labor Day
Hungarian National Team Captain Scores Epic Goal
Opposition Leader Threatens Media Outlets
Budapest Central European Fashion Week Kicks Off
American Airlines Adds New Flights to Budapest
F1 Hungarian Grand Prix Wraps Up
WhatsApp is rolling out a feature that looks a lot like Telegram.
U.S. Trade Representative says Washington still negotiating trade deals after court rules tariffs illegal
Von der Leyen says Europe drawing up 'precise' plans to send troops to Ukraine
Kremlin accuses Europe of hindering Trump’s peace efforts in Ukraine
German Chancellor Merz expects Ukraine war to last a long time
Why Hungarians feel poorer than their neighbours despite rising wages
Fidesz minister vows Hungary will ‘rescue’ a crisis-stricken EU
Budapest completes back-to-school infrastructure upgrade
Hungarian–Chinese consortium wins tender for Budapest trolleybuses
Betting market fuels speculation about Viktor Orbán’s future
European Union Plans for Ukraine Deployment
ECB Warns Against Inflation Complacency
Concerns Over North Cyprus Casino Development
Shipping Companies Look Beyond Chinese Finance
Rural Exodus Fueling European Wildfires
China Hosts Major Security Meeting
Germany Marks a Decade Since Migrant Wave with Divisions, Success Stories, and Political Shifts
Liverpool Defeat Arsenal 1–0 with Szoboszlai Free-Kick to Stay Top of Premier League
Chinese Stock Market Rally Fueled by Domestic Investors
Israeli Airstrike in Yemen Kills Houthi Prime Minister
Ukrainian Nationalist Politician Andriy Parubiy Assassinated in Lviv
Trump Administration Seeks to Repurpose $4.9 Billion in Foreign Aid
Corporate America Cuts Middle Management as Bosses Take On Triple the Workload
Parents Sue OpenAI After Teen’s Death, Alleging ChatGPT Encouraged Suicide
Amazon Faces Lawsuit Over 'Buy' Label on Digital Streaming Content
US Appeals Court Rules Against Most Trump-Era Tariffs
Germany’s Auto Industry Sheds 51,500 Jobs in First Half of 2025 Amid Deepening Crisis
Bruce Willis Relocated Due to Advanced Dementia
French and Korean Nuclear Majors Clash As EU Launches Foreign Subsidy Probe
EU Stands Firm on Digital Rules as Trump Warns of Retaliation
Getting Ready for the 3rd Time in Its History, Germany Approves Voluntary Military Service for Teenagers
Denmark Confronts U.S. Diplomat Over Covert Trump-Linked Influence in Greenland
Trump Demands RICO Charges Against George Soros and Son for Funding Violent Protests
Taylor Swift Announces Engagement to NFL Star Travis Kelce
France May Need IMF Bailout, Warns Finance Minister
After the Shock of Defeat, Iranians Yearn for Change
Ukraine Finally Allows Young Men Aged Eighteen to Twenty-Two to Leave the Country
The Porn Remains, Privacy Disappears: How Britain Broke the Internet in Ten Days
YouTube Altered Content by Artificial Intelligence – Without Permission
Ukrainian Refugee Iryna Zarutska Fled War To US, Stabbed To Death
×