A roundtable discussion hosted by the Hungarian Economic Association's demographic section highlighted the challenges posed by unfavorable demographic trends, emphasizing the urgent need for recognition of full-time motherhood.

The conversation, titled "Global Trends and Levels of Intervention," examined the links between GDP growth and declining fertility rates.

Philosopher and demographer Dr. János Tóth set the tone by illustrating that global demographic changes represent one of the least addressed yet profound challenges facing contemporary socio-economic systems.

He noted that humanity appears to be on the cusp of a new era characterized by population decline, a change that will create fundamentally new social, economic, and civilizational dynamics.

Since 1950, the fertility rate has been on a downward trend globally.

Tóth identified two interconnected demographic megatrends: the significant increase in life expectancy and the worldwide decline in fertility rates.

The former can be attributed to advancements in modern medicine, public health, and overall improvement in living standards.

While global life expectancy barely exceeded 30–40 years in 1900, it has now reached or surpassed 70–80 years in many countries.

Conversely, the fertility rate has sharply declined since 1950, particularly in developed countries, falling below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman in many regions.

These demographic changes are not uniform across the globe.

In Africa, the fertility rate remains relatively high, around 4 children per woman, and many countries have yet to surpass a life expectancy of 60 years.

Meanwhile, Europe, Oceania, and North America have been experiencing low fertility rates alongside high life expectancies for decades, contributing to the phenomenon of an aging population.

Dr. Tóth also pointed to the economic-demographic paradox, stating that countries with higher income levels tend to have lower fertility rates.

This phenomenon is particularly evident in developed nations with GDP per capita exceeding $40,000, where fertility rates fall below 1.5. In contrast, the poorest regions in Africa, with a GDP per capita of approximately $1,800, exhibit fertility rates exceeding 4.

The demographic situation in Hungary mirrors these global trends.

More recently, while Hungary has seen an increase in life expectancy—particularly after the political transition in the 1990s—COVID-19 significantly affected this trend.

The fertility rate was recorded at 1.55 in 2020 but is projected to decline to 1.38 by 2024. The average age for women having their first child is currently 28, below the OECD average of 30, indicating a trend towards delayed childbearing and an increasing proportion of childless women.

Dr. Tóth emphasized the importance of examining population changes in light of birth and death rates, particularly in relation to age structure and migration.

He delineated three demographic categories:
1. Africa, where fertility rates are declining but remain high due to youthful demographics, leading to continued population growth.

2. India, with fertility rates about 2, where population growth is slowing.

3. Developed countries, where low fertility and an aging population lead to declines in population as births can no longer offset deaths.

Projections indicate a dramatic shrinkage of East European populations in the coming decades, with estimates suggesting that the Baltic states may see their populations halve by 2050 if current trends continue.

Bulgaria’s population may potentially drop to one-fifth of its current size.

Dr. Tóth elaborated that this demographic downturn is not solely the result of individual choices but is shaped by complex social, economic, and cultural patterns.

The global population is expected to reach a historical peak within this century before starting to decline.

Estimates suggest this decline could begin around 2060, while others speculate it may extend to the 2090s.

The potential ramifications of such a shift signify a fundamental transformation in global socio-economic conditions, moving from growth-oriented policies to those addressing resource scarcity and aging populations.

Hungary's experience in erosion of population since 1981 offers valuable insights for similarly affected nations.

While this historical context reflects significant social consequences, it may provide useful frameworks for guiding policy discussions in other countries facing demographic entry points.

Dr. Tóth noted that the demographic issue encompasses not just statistics, but also moral, economic, and cultural challenges.

The roundtable underscored that solutions to the demographic crisis must extend beyond simplistic measures.

Dr. Iván Platthy, a former state secretary for religious affairs, asserted that the demographic crisis is a complex social issue requiring a nuanced response.

He provided examples of countries treating declining fertility as a critical national emergency, such as South Korea, which has implemented robust policy strategies to combat a severe drop in fertility rates.

Notably, the conversation addressed societal shifts in values affecting family formation, suggesting that a community-centric approach, involving a broad coalition of stakeholders including religious organizations and civil society, is crucial.

Participants emphasized that addressing demographic challenges must recognize the emotional and personal dimensions of family-building decisions, highlighting that external pressures and economic incentives alone will not suffice.

The discussion also brought attention to the challenges presented by mass migration as a potential counterbalance to declining populations in Western Europe, while noting significant social and cultural ramifications stemming from increased demographic diversity.

Examples were provided of communities worldwide, such as Israel, where distinct cultural identities and community structures support higher birth rates.

Tóth emphasized that in contexts like Israel, childbirth is often viewed as a collective responsibility, in contrast to European societies that typically lack this existential motivation.

As the conversation drew on broader themes such as artificial intelligence's potential role in increasing life expectancy, participants expressed skepticism regarding the feasibility of life expectancy extending to 150–170 years, highlighting biological limits and existing health challenges.

The topics discussed reflect a complex interplay of demographic trends, economic incentives, societal structure, and cultural values, pointing to the intricate challenges faced in addressing declining birth rates and population health.