Since the political changes of 1989, the capital has been depopulating while its surrounding area along with regions around Szeged, Győr, Pécs, and settlements along the eastern border of the country have been expanding. Rural areas have been experiencing depopulation for nearly four decades, yet the surroundings of Budapest and Lake Balaton have never been as popular as they are now. This is evident from our collection of data, where we investigated the year when the population of Hungarian villages and cities peaked.

Analyzing 38 years’ worth of population data from 3,154 settlements revealed patterns in the flourishing eras of Hungarian settlements. A shocking fact emerged: more than half of the villages and cities started to depopulate well before the political changes of 1989, with their peak population recorded in 1986 or earlier. This ratio is slightly elevated because 153 of the over three thousand settlements did not exist back then, thus the base was smaller. However, it's noteworthy that one-tenth of the settlements had their highest population at the beginning of 2023, many of which are clustered in certain regions, as our map clearly shows.

The population peaked last year in 343 settlements, over half of which are located in three counties: Pest, Fejér, and Győr-Moson-Sopron. This might seem obvious due to the higher number of settlements in these counties, but it's not the only reason:

Only nine villages and cities from Békés, Heves, Jász-Nagykun-Szolnok, Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg, and Tolna counties reached their population peak last year, constituting 2.6 percent of the 343 settlements that set records, while these five counties collectively house over six hundred settlements a fifth of the total.

Meanwhile, the settlements from Fejér, Győr-Moson-Sopron, and Pest counties, which altogether make up barely a seventh of all settlements, accounted for 57 percent of those that peaked last year.

In Békés and Jász-Nagykun Szolnok counties, among 75 and 78 settlements respectively, 57 and 53 saw their population peak prior to 1986, significantly above the national average 76 percent for Békés and 68 percent for the Jász region.

The surge in population moving to the suburban areas around the capital has been well covered by the media, with Érd having to put out a "fully occupied" sign last year. There is still space to the north, and prices have fallen the question remains who envisions their future living next to the growing number of battery factories. The concentration in suburban areas is not only evident in morning traffic jams but also in the creaking infrastructure: drinking water systems are operating at their limits, with watering bans ordered in six settlements last summer and the military deployed in Solymár to ensure water supply.

Lake Balaton Absorbs Retirees

In contrast, research published by the Equity Institute in January revealed that Lake Balaton dominates in terms of settlements’ developmental indices, managing the increasing population for now. Several factors contribute to the migration to Lake Balaton, including Fidesz’s developments/expropriations, the impact of coronavirus on local real estate demand, and the area becoming a favored destination for German retirees.

Both the northern and southern shores of Lake Balaton have grown in popularity in recent years. Only Keszthely and Balatonszentgyörgy did not reach their population peak in 2023 (the former in 1994 and the latter five years earlier) within the Balatonfenyves-Balatongyörök curve. To the east, from Aszófő to Siófok, only Balatonkenese had a higher population more than five years ago, long before the political changes. Similar to Székesfehérvár in Fejér county, the agglomeration of Veszprém also flourished last year, with half of its fifteen neighboring settlements having their highest population in 2023.

Clusters of peak populations are visible around several western cities as well. Sopron and Győr saw their populations peak a few years after the political changes, with an increasing trend of residents moving from these cities to neighboring villages and small towns as our dark blue shaded agglomeration map indicates.

Mosonmagyaróvár reached its population peak ten years ago. We wrote an extensive article about the city and its surroundings in 2021, revealing that pandemic regulations significantly increased the number of officially registered residents.

Eastern Vote Tourism

Tornyospálca became significantly more attractive before the 2018 parliamentary elections. Starting from 2013, the population of the settlement grew by 10 percent, or 285 people, barely reaching the 1986 peak of three thousand residents. Radio Free Europe investigated this demographic mini-miracle in 2021, showcasing a dilapidated house where 340 people had been registered within a few years.

Ártánd, Biharkeresztes, and Mezőpeterd, all border towns, saw their populations increase by 10–11 percent from 2019 to last year.

Several north-eastern settlements also became popular around the same time: Forró, Beret, Abaújszolnok, Gagyapáti, Felsőgagy, Fáj, Fulókércs, and Csenyéte attracted the most people either last year or within the last five years. A decade ago, Csaba M. Kiss reported on Csenyéte, describing it as the deepest pit of poverty the village where even ambulances would not enter for a dying man.

The Russo-Ukrainian war did not impact the population numbers near the Transcarpathian border: most of these border settlements peaked in 2018 or 2019.

Several major cities (Zalaegerszeg, Pécs, Szeged, Miskolc, Debrecen) are surrounded by dark spots on our map, indicating the growing popularity of their suburban areas in recent years compared to the cities themselves.

Depopulating Budapest

Pinpointing a specific year for Budapest is challenging, as data from the Ministry of Interior is only available up to 1986; information from decennial censuses is the only indicator of how many lived in Budapest before that. According to Népesség.com's graph, the most Budapest residents claimed their residence in 1980 according to censuses. It is difficult to determine the peak between 1970 and 1986. It's a fact, however, that since the political changes, only a few years (from 2007 to 2015) saw a slight increase in Budapest’s population, which otherwise declined year by year.