Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

Britain can’t buck the markets

Britain can’t buck the markets

The country’s been pushed to the brink of a crisis rivaling the meltdown prompted by the 2008 financial crash — but this is a self-inflicted wound.
Last week, Britain was the center of global attention as it pulled off a breathtaking royal funeral, replete with the military pomp of yesteryear. “Queen’s farewell makes Britain proud again, just for one day,” was the headline over a column by the Guardian’s John Crace.

“Thoughts that we were a nation in decline, with a large number of its population unsure if they could afford to eat and heat in the coming months, were put on hold. We had a history worth celebrating. We and the country did matter,” he wrote.

This week, Britain is once again the focus of global attention for another breathtaking event — but this time, it’s for all the wrong reasons.

During the funeral, all the queen’s horses and all the queen’s men didn’t put a foot wrong, but after the announcement of Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget, an apparent misstep that has thrown shocked markets into turmoil, it is now doubtful whether they can put Britain back together again.

“It’s a great time to buy, USD is 24% stronger than January 2020 and we can still deliver worldwide,” reads current the banner across the website of Herring, a supplier of top-quality English shoes, famous for its sturdy country brogues favored by King Charles III.

And after the ferocious economic and financial tsunami triggered by the not-so-mini-budget, many of the United Kingdom’s luxury-goods manufacturers are now similarly hoping that a cratering pound will lift their international sales, helping them ride out the storm. However, they’re also contending with the headwinds of soaring corporate interest rates and, if they need imported goods to finish their products, higher costs.

These manufacturers aren’t the only ones aiming to profit from Kwarteng’s backfiring “dash-for-growth” budget either — the vultures are circling in Wall Street and among global private equity firms too. They see the plunging value of sterling — prompted by the chancellor’s tax-cutting bonanza — as a golden opportunity to snap up cheaply prized British businesses, engulfed by a dip in consumer confidence and spiraling debt costs, much as they did during the pandemic.

In announcing the biggest tax cuts in half a century — mainly for the wealthy — which will require an unprecedented extra £411 billion in public borrowing over the next five years, the new chancellor has essentially pushed Britain into a crisis rivaling the meltdown prompted by the 2008 financial crash, when the government had to bail out banks too big to fail.

The financial crash was global, though, and the culpability for it widespread, whereas Britain’s latest crisis is a self-inflicted wound carried out by two people — Kwarteng and Prime Minister Liz Truss, economic libertarian ideologues who laid out their vision years ago in the book “Britannia Unchained,” published in 2012. Here, they argued the only way to stimulate economic growth is to transform Britain into a low-tax, de-regulated economy that is able to attract foreign investment, reward go-getters and goad entrepreneurs.

And though Truss was hardly secretive about what she intended to do during the lengthy Conservative leadership contest to replace Boris Johnson, the dash-for-growth budget took many by surprise. Presumably, they thought that once in office, Truss and Kwarteng would have to plump for a more orthodox approach rather than take a huge gamble with public finances — the biggest any British government has taken since World War II, some argue.

Kwarteng’s mini-budget triggered not only a slide in the pound but also a big sell-off of British government gilts, described by the normally staid Mohamed El-Erian, the Allianz and Gramercy advisor and president of Queens’ College Cambridge, as “eye-popping.”

The chancellor has since played down any concerns about a sterling crisis or the gilt sell-off, or the fact that lenders are even more skeptical about Britain than they are about Greece or Italy. “Market jitters” was how government spokesmen labeled the negative reaction to the cuts, which were announced against a backdrop of high inflation and poor productivity.

But the reaction is much more than market nerves. Truss and her chancellor have lost the confidence of the markets — something that’s hard to get back.

This was underlined this week, when the markets ignored coordinated, and supposedly reassuring, statements made by Britain’s Treasury and the Bank of England (BoE). The Treasury said Kwarteng would outline his fiscal rules and how he intends to pay for Britain’s mountainous pile of debt next month, but the markets aren’t in much of a mood to wait. Meanwhile, the damage to Britain’s economy is mounting, and Conservative lawmakers are calling for the embattled chancellor to outline his plans much sooner.

Additionally, while any immediate emergency interest rate rises have been ruled out, BoE governor Andrew Bailey said he “will not hesitate to change interest rates by as much as needed” to curb inflation. The statement struck some currency traders as a hesitation — even a dare — they might like to challenge, while others simply heard an empty threat.

However, the BoE did eventually intervene on Wednesday, stepping in with an “emergency financial stability operation” to head off a “material risk to UK financial stability” by buying long-term government debt to tackle the surge in the cost of borrowing. The BoE is also postponing its plans to begin winding down quantitative easing.

As such, Britain’s central bank is now caught in a push-pull dilemma: To keep the country’s financial system afloat, it is having to go in for another bout of monetary easing, which could fuel inflation, while also planning to try and slam on the brakes by raising interest rates — a move that will defeat the growth objective.

But the incoherence is increasing, and the BoE’s move is unlikely to curb the turmoil. The markets are speaking loudly, and they are indicating that the strategy of cutting taxes by adding even more debt on top of what has already been incurred during the pandemic just isn’t viable or sustainable. And Thatcherite libertarians Truss and Kwarteng should know how dangerous it is to test the markets’ patience. It was, after all, their idol the Iron Lady who coined the aphorism, “you can’t buck the markets.”

She was speaking when the euro currency and bond markets were in turmoil due to unrealistic expectations, as European economies starkly diverged, and the banking systems of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain were only lifted off their knees thanks to promised support by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

So, as the public debt markets shun the prospect of never-ceasing flows of government bonds for an economy stricken by double-digit inflation and faced with a huge structural balance-of-payments deficit, is Britain destined to turn to the IMF now too? The IMF is already unimpressed by Kwarteng’s mini-budget, issuing a highly unusual warning urging a reversal of the announced tax cuts and arguing that the measures will compound the cost-of-living crisis.

History is instructive on this point too, as Kwarteng isn’t the first British chancellor to make an ill-considered dash for growth, with feet firmly planted on the acceleration pedal.

Back in 1972, Anthony Barber similarly decided the only way to pull the British economy out of its rut of stagflation, high unemployment and stagnant output was to go for growth by taking an axe to income and purchase taxes.

Like Kwarteng, Barber also argued that tax “too often stultifies enterprise” and promised economic growth of 10 percent over two years. His tax cuts — again funded by government borrowing — along with liberalizing rules governing bank lending, prompted a short-lived expansion nicknamed the “Barber boom,” but inflation soared, reaching 24 percent, a balance-of-payments deficit worsened, and the Arab oil embargo added further woes. A banking crisis was triggered.

When Prime Minister Edward Heath appointed Barber, a onetime tax lawyer, Labour leader Harold Wilson quipped it was the first time he realized Heath had a sense of humor. But the joke was on Britain, and the fiscal profligacy culminated in an IMF bailout.

The historical parallels are, of course, not exact — they never are. Nonetheless, the consequences of Barber’s dash for growth serves as a warning the government would do well to heed.
AI Disclaimer: An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system generated the content of this page on its own. This innovative technology conducts extensive research from a variety of reliable sources, performs rigorous fact-checking and verification, cleans up and balances biased or manipulated content, and presents a minimal factual summary that is just enough yet essential for you to function as an informed and educated citizen. Please keep in mind, however, that this system is an evolving technology, and as a result, the article may contain accidental inaccuracies or errors. We urge you to help us improve our site by reporting any inaccuracies you find using the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page. Your helpful feedback helps us improve our system and deliver more precise content. When you find an article of interest here, please look for the full and extensive coverage of this topic in traditional news sources, as they are written by professional journalists that we try to support, not replace. We appreciate your understanding and assistance.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
NVIDIA Achieves $4 Trillion Valuation Amid AI Demand
Tulsi Gabbard Unveils Evidence Alleging Political Manipulation of Intelligence During Trump Administration
Centrist Criticism of von der Leyen Resurfaces as she Survives EU Confidence Vote
Trump Announces Coca-Cola to Shift to Cane Sugar in U.S. Production
FIFA Pressured to Rethink World Cup Calendar Due to Climate Change
Zelensky Reshuffles Cabinet to Win Support at Home and in Washington
"Can You Hit Moscow?" Trump Asked Zelensky To Make Putin "Feel The Pain"
Church of England Removes 1991 Sexuality Guidelines from Clergy Selection
Superman Franchise Achieves Success with Latest Release
Hungary's Viktor Orban Rejects Agreements on Illegal Migration
Air India Pilot’s Mental Health Records Under Scrutiny
Jamie Dimon Warns Europe Is Losing Global Competitiveness and Flags Market Complacency
Moonshot AI Unveils Kimi K2: A New Open-Source AI Model
Martha Wells Says Humanity Still Far from True Artificial Intelligence
Nvidia Becomes World’s First Four‑Trillion‑Dollar Company Amid AI Boom
EU Delays Retaliatory Tariffs Amid New U.S. Threats on Imports
Trump Proposes Supplying Arms to Ukraine Through NATO Allies
US Opens First Rare Earth Mine in Over 70 Years in Wyoming
Bitcoin Reaches New Milestone of $116,000
Severe Heatwave Claims 2,300 Lives Across Europe
Declining Beer Consumption Signals Cultural Shift in Germany
Emails Leaked: How Passenger Luggage Became a Side Income for Airport Workers
Polish MEP: “Dear Leftists - China is laughing at you, Russia is laughing, India is laughing”
Western Europe Records Hottest June on Record
BRICS Expands Membership with Indonesia and Ten New Partner Countries
Elon Musk Founds a Party Following a Poll on X: "You Wanted It – You Got It!"
China’s Central Bank Consults European Peers on Low-Rate Strategies
France Requests Airlines to Cut Flights at Paris Airports Amid Planned Air Traffic Controller Strike
Poland Implements Border Checks Amid Growing Migration Tensions
Emirates Airline Expands Market Share with New $20 Million Campaign
Amazon Reaches Milestone with Deployment of One Millionth Robot
Yulia Putintseva Calls for Spectator Ejection at Wimbledon Over Safety Concerns
House Oversight Committee Subpoenas Former Jill Biden Aide Amid Investigation into Alleged Concealment of President Biden's Cognitive Health
Amazon Reaches Major Automation Milestone with Over One Million Robots
Extreme Heat Wave Sweeps Across Europe, Hitting Record Temperatures
Meta Announces Formation of Ambitious AI Unit, Meta Superintelligence Labs
Robots Compete in Football Tournament in China Amid Injuries
China Unveils Miniature Insect-Like Surveillance Drone
Marc Marquez Claims Victory at Dutch Grand Prix Amidst Family Misfortune
Germany Votes to Suspend Family Reunification for Asylum Seekers
Budapest Pride Parade Draws 200,000 Participants Amid Government Ban
Southern Europe Experiences Extreme Heat
Xiaomi's YU7 SUV Launch Garners Record Pre-Orders Amid Market Challenges
Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sanchez's Lavish Wedding in Venice
Russia Launches Largest Air Assault on Ukraine Since Invasion
Massive Anti-Government Protests Erupt in Belgrade
Iran Executes Alleged Israeli Spies and Arrests Hundreds Amid Post-War Crackdown
Hungary's Prime Minister Criticizes NATO's Role in Ukraine
EU TO HUNGARY: LET THEM PRIDE OR PREP FOR SHADE. ORBÁN TO EU: STAY IN YOUR LANE AND FIX YOUR OWN MESS.
Hungarian Scientist to Conduct 30 Research Experiments on the International Space Station
×