Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

Airlines will struggle long after passengers feel safe to fly again

Airlines will struggle long after passengers feel safe to fly again

The Covid-19 pandemic has caused the worst financial crisis in the history of the airline industry. But when the health crisis is over, airlines' financial problems will probably continue for years.

History has shown clearly that it takes a tremendous amount of time for passenger traffic to recover after a recession.

recently, it took a whopping five years after Great Recession ended in 2009 for passenger traffic to recover, according to Philip Baggaley, the chief credit analyst for airlines at Standard & Poors. Even after the relatively mild 2000 recession caused by the bursting of the dot-com bubble, it took until 2004 for US air passenger traffic to again reach its pre-recession peak.

"Recessions are tough for the industry. Airlines are dependent on economic growth," said Baggaley.

Beyond the years it takes for overall air travel to recover after a recession, historically it takes even longer for a return of business travel, which is the most lucrative sector for airlines -- one most of them depend upon.

That's one part of what makes this recession particularly chilling for airlines. On an overall scale the pandemic has caused widespread economic pain, with millions losing their jobs and burning through savings that they might otherwise have used for discretionary spending like vacations.

But when it comes to that all-important business travel, the situation is arguably worse.

Many companies have fewer employees on payrolls with a need to travel. Most will also be trying to recoup losses or pay down debt caused by the pandemic -- and trimming travel by skipping conferences and meeting with clients virtually is likely to be a cost-cutting measure. And, of course, there are many companies that have gone out of business altogether during the crisis.

"Business travel typically falls farther and takes longer to recover," said Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics.

Sacks thinks next year's travel will still be significantly affected by the pandemic itself. But he said he believes that in "2022, we're dealing with picking up the pieces from the economy that has been damaged."

"In this case, I think four years [after 2021] is what we're looking at to get leisure travel back to pre-pandemic levels. Businesses will take at least an extra year," he added.

There is no blueprint for a crisis like this. The last pandemic on this global scale was more than 100 years ago in 1918, before the age of commercial air travel.

More recent pandemics -- such as the SARS crisis in 2003, which badly damaged air travel to and from Asia, particularly Hong Kong -- did not cause a global recession. The SARS pandemic was over relatively quickly, and the impact on air travel ended only six months later, Sacks said, as people felt safe flying again.

What airline executives are saying


In this pandemic, US airlines collectively lost $12 billion in the second quarter. So far for the third quarter the five largest carriers -- American (AAL), United (UAL), Delta, Southwest and Alaska Air (ALK), have already reported losses of $8.9 billion excluding special items like $25 billion in federal assistance for the industry overall.

And airline executives have been blunt about their expectations for a slow, painful recovery.

"We have to assume that business travel will be lighter for a long time," said Southwest (LUV) CEO Gary Kelly in an interview on CNBC last week.

He cited examples of business travel taking five years to recover from past recessions, adding, "you've got to believe that will be at least the case now. I've said it may be 10 years before business travel recovers."

The airlines are also concerned about a permanent hit to business travel given growing use of video services, although they say they believe the shift to virtual meetings will be limited.

"I'm of the view that it will have some impact, but it's not going to be a substitute," said Delta (DAL) CEO Ed Bastian when speaking with investors earlier this month. "I don't think anybody knows. My sense is that we could be looking at anywhere from 10% to 20% reduction in the next couple of years when we get to that new normal of business travel."

Most of the financial damage to the airlines so far has been because of a combination of shutdown orders limiting nonessential flying, quarantine rules for travelers and border closings. Travel through US airport checkpoints since March is down 75%.

While those losses may not be repeated -- especially if the vaccines and treatments help to beat back the pandemic sometime next year -- they still have left an industry that went into the crisis in relatively strong financial shape with much weaker balance sheets. All have taken on massive levels of debt to ride out this downturn.

And they've all cut their staff -- through voluntary buyouts and in many cases involuntary layoffs and furloughs -- to reduce costs. If even a modest level of traffic returns next year with an end to the pandemic, the losses could end by the middle of 2021. But that doesn't mean they'll be in good financial shape.

"The airlines may be able to break even again or make modest amounts of money," said Baggaley. "But even if they're able to make money at this lower passenger levels, profitability won't return to previous levels any time soon."

AI Disclaimer: An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system generated the content of this page on its own. This innovative technology conducts extensive research from a variety of reliable sources, performs rigorous fact-checking and verification, cleans up and balances biased or manipulated content, and presents a minimal factual summary that is just enough yet essential for you to function as an informed and educated citizen. Please keep in mind, however, that this system is an evolving technology, and as a result, the article may contain accidental inaccuracies or errors. We urge you to help us improve our site by reporting any inaccuracies you find using the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page. Your helpful feedback helps us improve our system and deliver more precise content. When you find an article of interest here, please look for the full and extensive coverage of this topic in traditional news sources, as they are written by professional journalists that we try to support, not replace. We appreciate your understanding and assistance.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Altman Says GPT-5 Already Outpaces Him, Warns AI Could Automate 40% of Work
Russian Research Vessel 'Yantar' Tracked Mapping Europe’s Subsea Cables, Raising Security Alarms
Global Cruise Industry Posts Dramatic Comeback with 34.6 Million Passengers in 2024
U.S. Demands Brussels Scrutinize Digital Rules to Prevent Bias Against American Tech
Private Equity’s Fundraising Surge Triggers Concern of European Market Shake-Out
Tokyo’s Jimbōchō Named World’s Coolest Neighbourhood for 2025
European Officials Fear Trump May Shift Blame for Ukraine War onto EU
The Personality Rights Challenge in India’s AI Era
Italy Considers Freezing Retirement Age at 67 to Avert Scheduled Hike
Italian City to Impose Tax on Visiting Dogs Starting in 2026
Study Finds No Safe Level of Alcohol for Dementia Risk
Trump Says Ukraine Can Fully Restore Borders with NATO Backing
Europe Signals Stronger Support for Taiwan at Major Taipei Defence Show
Germany Weighs Excluding France from Key European Fighter Jet Programme
Cyberattack Disrupts Check-in and Boarding Systems at Major European Airports
Björn Borg Breaks Silence: Memoir Reveals Addiction, Shame and Cancer Battle
When Extremism Hijacks Idealism: How the Baader-Meinhof Gang Emerged and Fell
JWST Data Brings TRAPPIST-1e Closer to Earth-Like Habitability
Trump Orders $100,000 Fee on H-1B Visas and Launches ‘Gold Card’ Immigration Pathway
France’s Looming Budget Crisis and Political Fracture Raise Fears of Becoming Europe’s “Sick Man”
Three Russian MiG-31 Jets Breach Estonian Airspace in ‘Unprecedentedly Brazen’ NATO Incident
European manufacturers against ban on polluting cars: "The industry may collapse"
Turkish car manufacturer Togg Enters German Market with 5-Star Electric Sedan and SUV to Challenge European EV Brands
Christian Brueckner Released from German Prison after Serving Unrelated Sentence
World’s Longest Direct Flight China Eastern to Launch 29-Hour Shanghai–Buenos Aires Direct Flight via Auckland in December
New OpenAI Study Finds Majority of ChatGPT Use Is Personal, Not Professional
The conservative right spreads westward: a huge achievement for 'Alternative for Germany' in local elections
Pope Leo Warns of Societal Crisis Over Mega-CEO Pay, Citing Tesla’s Proposed Trillion-Dollar Package
Poland Green-Lights NATO Deployment in Response to Major Russian Drone Incursion
U.S. and China Agree on Framework to Shift TikTok to American Ownership
Le Pen Tightens the Pressure on Macron as France Edges Toward Political Breakdown
Czech Republic signs €1.34 billion contract for Leopard 2A8 main battle tanks with delivery from 2028
Penske Media Sues Google Over “AI Overviews,” Claiming It Uses Journalism Without Consent and Destroys Traffic
Indian Student Engineers Propose “Project REBIRTH” to Protect Aircraft from Crashes Using AI, Airbags and Smart Materials
One in Three Europeans Now Uses TikTok, According to the Chinese Tech Giant
Could AI Nursing Robots Help Healthcare Staffing Shortages?
NATO Deploys ‘Eastern Sentry’ After Russian Drones Violate Polish Airspace
The New Life of Novak Djokovic
German police raid AfD lawmaker’s offices in inquiry over Chinese payments
Volkswagen launches aggressive strategy to fend off Chinese challenge in Europe’s EV market
France Erupts in Mass ‘Block Everything’ Protests on New PM’s First Day
Poland Shoots Down Russian Drones in Airspace Violation During Ukraine Attack
Apple Introduces Ultra-Thin iPhone Air, Enhanced 17 Series and New Health-Focused Wearables
Macron Appoints Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minister Amid Budget Crisis and Political Turmoil
Vatican hosts first Catholic LGBTQ pilgrimage
Apple Unveils iPhone 17 Series, iPhone Air, Apple Watch 11 and More at 'Awe Dropping' Event
France joins Eurozone’s ‘periphery’ as turmoil deepens, say investors
France Faces New Political Crisis, again, as Prime Minister Bayrou Pushed Out
Nayib Bukele Points Out Belgian Hypocrisy as Brussels Considers Sending Army into the Streets
France, at an Impasse, Heads Toward Another Government Collapse
×