Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

What's happening in Lebanon matters to Europe. Here's why

What's happening in Lebanon matters to Europe. Here's why

Lebanon is on the edge of falling into an uncertain and terrifying freefall.
Why should anyone give two hoots about Lebanon?

Yes, it has offshore oil, grows top quality marijuana, is a potential gold mine in pharmaceuticals and boasts one of Hollywood's favourite fashion designers, Ellie Saab.

But doesn't Hezbollah run a spider's web of worldwide terror networks from there? And what about the Mafia-style corrupted political system that puts Al Capone to shame? Not to mention the murder or maiming of presidents, prime ministers, politicians, activists, and journalists, often regarded as little more than a temporary inconvenience.
ADVERTISING

At least France does, it seems.

Since President Emmanuel Macron waded into the quagmire of Lebanon after one of the world's largest non-nuclear explosions tore through Beirut last year, his much-vaunted rescue plan to save the country's financial meltdown has hit a brick wall.

And an investigation into what caused the blast at the port of Beirut where negligently stored chemicals detonated, killing 200 people and causing €13 billion in damage, has gone nowhere.

There's only one thing all can agree on - the country is on the edge of falling into an uncertain and terrifying freefall.

Lebanon is already a failed state in many ways. The value of money has flat-lined, losing around 90 per cent of its value. Everyone's money has disappeared down the drain from empty vaults of collapsed banks. Half the country is trapped in poverty, and food riots may be around the corner. Yet, as it is left to drown in an ocean of debt of its own making, the influential Gulf States and the international community appear to have done virtually nothing practical to stop it.

What else can go wrong? It depends on who you ask for such predictions in fractured Lebanon. A renewed civil war? Yet another war with Israel? A return of Syrian troops to police the volatile nation? The rise of a new Iranian-style Islamic State? Or a breakdown into mini-states where rival sects, Christians and Druze, Moslem Sunnis, and Shiites might live in harmony. Three decades ago, the former federation of Yugoslavia, which included Bosnia, Croatia, and Serbia, was raised as a promising model for multi-religious harmony in Lebanon. We know how badly that turned out - a bloody war-torn disaster on the doorstep of Europe.

The only scenario that's not being discussed is the expectation of a magical return to normality as Lebanese pack their bags and run away. If you asked what they needed most of all right now, it would be a fully functioning government to stop their accelerating chaos. Since their president and a prime minister in waiting are entangled in a political battle of wills, it is beyond their reach.

So, who's at fault? Well, again, that depends on whose side you're on. Suppose you're in the camp of the octogenarian Maronite Christian President Michel Aoun. In that case, it includes the armed Shiite militants of Hezbollah whose fighters helped Syrian President Bashar al-Assad cling onto power during a decade of civil war, allied with Iran and Russia.

The opposite side is led by a Prime Minister-designate, 50-year-old Saad Hariri, who is seen favourably in the West. Like his father, the five-time Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, who was assassinated 16 years ago, he is battling a Lebanese president against uneven odds in a climate of intimidation and fear. Once, it was Syria that could issue threats against Hariri the elder and his allies. Now Hezbollah, with a whip hand over Lebanese politics and Iran and Syria, all side with the embattled president.

To make matters more complicated, the ageing president's key advisor is his son-in-law, Gebran Bassil. A former Foreign Minister and leader of the largest Christian political bloc in parliament, suspected by opponents of being the real power behind his close relative's throne. The United States slapped sanctions on him last year over "systemic corruption" and the political ties he and his father-in-law, the president, have with Hezbollah. Bassil brushed off the US punishment as meaningless, but the French government has since been considering similar action on suspect Lebanese politicians, so he could find himself in deeper international trouble.

Saad Hariri's picks for a new cabinet are intended to follow the French-led economic rescue plan. It insists on a technocrat-only government to enact reforms and drag the country from its reliance on state institutions that act as fiefdoms for the interests of sectarian political groups. President Aoun has rejected them eighteen times. And his opponents claim he intends to contain a Hariri premiership through insistence on having veto power on government decisions in any new cabinet

Hariri is not without his own setbacks. A two-time prime minister, he was the only leader to quit office last year in the face of failed street protests to topple the country's entire ruling political elite. And seen over time, his father's legacy and that of his own efforts to re-position the once war-torn country as a success story are regarded by opponents as an abject failure.

Saudi Arabia's controversial Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, widely known as MBS, has overseen a waning of Hariri's star in Riyadh, frustrated that Hezbollah's direct influence over the country as a non-state actor has intensified.

It was apparently on the orders of MBS that Saad Hariri was detained in Riyadh and forced to resign from the prime ministry more than three years ago, citing Iran's and Hezbollah's dominant sway in the Middle East and fears of his own assassination. With the help of France, Hariri returned to Lebanon as prime minister after his resignation was rejected, ironically by President Aoun and his ally, Hezbollah. Since then, the Saudis, once the main power-broker, seem to have let the ball drop in Lebanon.

But now France is picking up the pace to find a solution, while the Saudis warn that unless Lebanese leaders enact "true reforms", the country risks facing "ever more dangerous circumstances". The warning bells are loud and clear. Hezbollah has thousands of rockets that point towards Israel. The thought of an exodus of refugees, Syrian and Lebanese, who could flee violent instability, their eyes set on Europe, is another nightmare scenario.

Internal and external political pressures are building, the economic asphyxiation won't stop unless a transparent, reform-capable government is put in place. Hezbollah officials may sound upbeat as the French shift gear. Still, the Iranians seem in no rush to break the deadlock any time soon. It may give them leverage in combating Washington's policy in the region at a time when a resumption of indirect talks over a possible US return to the Iran nuclear deal is underway.

Something has to give to make any progress. Political alliances can shift with the wind in Lebanon, but the risks of doing so are historically high as its leaders know only too well. When Rafik Hariri changed the political course dramatically, it was the beginning of his end. His son Saad is walking in similar footsteps. Little wonder he rarely leaves his heavily fortified home in central Beirut.
AI Disclaimer: An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system generated the content of this page on its own. This innovative technology conducts extensive research from a variety of reliable sources, performs rigorous fact-checking and verification, cleans up and balances biased or manipulated content, and presents a minimal factual summary that is just enough yet essential for you to function as an informed and educated citizen. Please keep in mind, however, that this system is an evolving technology, and as a result, the article may contain accidental inaccuracies or errors. We urge you to help us improve our site by reporting any inaccuracies you find using the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page. Your helpful feedback helps us improve our system and deliver more precise content. When you find an article of interest here, please look for the full and extensive coverage of this topic in traditional news sources, as they are written by professional journalists that we try to support, not replace. We appreciate your understanding and assistance.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Emails Leaked: How Passenger Luggage Became a Side Income for Airport Workers
Polish MEP: “Dear Leftists - China is laughing at you, Russia is laughing, India is laughing”
Western Europe Records Hottest June on Record
BRICS Expands Membership with Indonesia and Ten New Partner Countries
Elon Musk Founds a Party Following a Poll on X: "You Wanted It – You Got It!"
China’s Central Bank Consults European Peers on Low-Rate Strategies
France Requests Airlines to Cut Flights at Paris Airports Amid Planned Air Traffic Controller Strike
Poland Implements Border Checks Amid Growing Migration Tensions
Emirates Airline Expands Market Share with New $20 Million Campaign
Amazon Reaches Milestone with Deployment of One Millionth Robot
Yulia Putintseva Calls for Spectator Ejection at Wimbledon Over Safety Concerns
House Oversight Committee Subpoenas Former Jill Biden Aide Amid Investigation into Alleged Concealment of President Biden's Cognitive Health
Amazon Reaches Major Automation Milestone with Over One Million Robots
Extreme Heat Wave Sweeps Across Europe, Hitting Record Temperatures
Meta Announces Formation of Ambitious AI Unit, Meta Superintelligence Labs
Robots Compete in Football Tournament in China Amid Injuries
China Unveils Miniature Insect-Like Surveillance Drone
Marc Marquez Claims Victory at Dutch Grand Prix Amidst Family Misfortune
Germany Votes to Suspend Family Reunification for Asylum Seekers
Budapest Pride Parade Draws 200,000 Participants Amid Government Ban
Southern Europe Experiences Extreme Heat
Xiaomi's YU7 SUV Launch Garners Record Pre-Orders Amid Market Challenges
Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sanchez's Lavish Wedding in Venice
Russia Launches Largest Air Assault on Ukraine Since Invasion
Massive Anti-Government Protests Erupt in Belgrade
Iran Executes Alleged Israeli Spies and Arrests Hundreds Amid Post-War Crackdown
Hungary's Prime Minister Criticizes NATO's Role in Ukraine
EU TO HUNGARY: LET THEM PRIDE OR PREP FOR SHADE. ORBÁN TO EU: STAY IN YOUR LANE AND FIX YOUR OWN MESS.
Hungarian Scientist to Conduct 30 Research Experiments on the International Space Station
NATO Members Agree to 5% Defense Spending Target by 2035
NATO Leaders Endorse Plan for Increased Defence Spending
U.S. Crude Oil Prices Drop Below $65 Amid Market Volatility
International Astronaut Team Launched to Space Station
Macron and Merz: Europe must arm itself in an unstable world
Germany and Italy Under Pressure to Repatriate $245bn of Gold from US Vaults
Iran Intensifies Crackdown on Alleged Mossad Operatives After Sabotage Claims
Trump Praises Iran’s ‘Very Weak’ Response After U.S. Strikes and Presses Israel to Pursue Peace
Oil Prices Set to Surge After US Strikes Iran
BA and Singapore Airlines Cancel Dubai Flights Amid Middle East Tensions
Trump Faces Backlash from MAGA Base Over Iran Strikes
Meta Bets $14 B on Alexandr Wang to Drive AI Ambitions
FedEx Founder Fred Smith, ‘Heart and Soul’ of the Company, Dies at 80
Chinese Factories Shift Away from U.S. Amid Trump‑Era Tariffs
Pimco Seizes Opportunity in Japan’s Dislocated Bond Market
Labubu Doll Drives Pop Mart to Status as China’s Most Valuable Toy Maker
Global Coal Demand Defies Paris Accord Goals
United States Conducts Precision Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Sites
US strikes Iran nuclear sites, Trump says
Telegram Founder: I Will Leave My Fortune to Over 100 of My Children
16 Billion Login Credentials Leaked in Unprecedented Cybersecurity Breach
×