Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

UK to be one of worst performing economies this year, predicts IMF

UK to be one of worst performing economies this year, predicts IMF

The UK is set to be one of the worst performing major economies in the world this year, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

It says the UK economy's performance in 2023 will be the worst among the 20 biggest economies, known as the G20, which includes sanctions-hit Russia.

The IMF predicts the UK economy will shrink this year, although this is a small upgrade from its last forecast.

It also warned of a "rocky road" for the global financial system.

It follows the collapse of two US banks last month, closely followed by a rushed takeover of Swiss banking giant Credit Suisse by its rival UBS, which sparked fears of another financial crisis.

The IMF had already forecast that the UK would experience a downturn this year and be bottom of the pile of the G7 - a group of the world's seven largest so-called "advanced" economies, which dominate global trade and the international financial system. The UK topped the group in 2022 during the pandemic rebound.

It now expects the UK economy to shrink by 0.3% in 2023 and then grow by 1% next year.

Although the UK is forecast to have the worst economic performance this year, the IMF's latest prediction is slightly better than its previous expectation of a 0.6% contraction, made in January.

IMF researchers have previously pointed to Britain's exposure to high gas prices, rising interest rates and a sluggish trade performance as reasons for its weak economic performance.

Forecasts are made to give a guide to what is most likely to happen in the future, but they are not always right. For example, previous IMF forecasts picked up fewer than 10% of recessions a year ahead of time, according to an analysis it conducted of recessions around the world between 1992 and 2014.

Responding to the latest IMF's predictions, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said: "Our IMF growth forecasts have been upgraded by more than any other G7 country.

"The IMF now say we are on the right track for economic growth. By sticking to the plan we will more than halve inflation this year, easing the pressure on everyone."

But Rachel Reeves, Labour's shadow chancellor, said the estimates showed "just how far we continue to lag behind on the global stage".

"This matters not just because 13 years of low growth under the Tories are weakening our economy, but because it's why families are worse off, facing a Tory mortgage penalty and seeing living standards falling at their fastest rate since records began," she added.

Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesperson Sarah Olney said the forecast was "another damning indictment of this Conservative government's record on the economy".

A number of forecasters think the chances of a recession in the UK this year are declining. An economy is usually said to be in recession if it shrinks for two consecutive three-month periods.

The independent Office for Budget Responsibility now expects the economy to contract by 0.2% this year but avoid a recession.

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey also said recently that he was "much more hopeful" for the economy, and it was no longer heading into an immediate recession.


The new forecasts come against the backdrop of a world economy that continues to recover from both the pandemic and the Ukraine war energy shock.

But the IMF said there were concerns about the wider impact of recent fragility in global banking markets.

The IMF now expects global growth to fall from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.8% in 2023, before rising slowly and settling at 3% in five years' time.

But it warned that if there is more stress in the financial sector, global growth could weaken further this year.


Interest rates predicted to fall


Separately, the IMF said it expects real interest rates - which take into account inflation - in major economies to fall to pre-pandemic levels because of low productivity and ageing populations.

Central banks in the UK, the US, Europe and other nations have been increasing interest rates to combat the rate of price rises, otherwise known as inflation.

In the UK, inflation is at its highest for nearly 40 years because of rising energy prices and soaring food costs. In response, the Bank of England has been raising interest rates, and last month increased them to 4.25%.

However, in a blog the IMF said that "recent increases in real interest rates are likely to be temporary".

AI Disclaimer: An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system generated the content of this page on its own. This innovative technology conducts extensive research from a variety of reliable sources, performs rigorous fact-checking and verification, cleans up and balances biased or manipulated content, and presents a minimal factual summary that is just enough yet essential for you to function as an informed and educated citizen. Please keep in mind, however, that this system is an evolving technology, and as a result, the article may contain accidental inaccuracies or errors. We urge you to help us improve our site by reporting any inaccuracies you find using the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page. Your helpful feedback helps us improve our system and deliver more precise content. When you find an article of interest here, please look for the full and extensive coverage of this topic in traditional news sources, as they are written by professional journalists that we try to support, not replace. We appreciate your understanding and assistance.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Thieves Steal Antonello da Messina Renaissance Masterpieces From Sicilian Museum
Google Launches Pixel 11 With Gemini AI at the Center of Its Hardware Strategy
Russia’s A7 Builds a State-Linked Payments Network Beyond Western Sanctions
AI’s Next Bottleneck Is Power, Not Just Nvidia Chips
Meta Raises AI Spending Target to as Much as $145bn Despite Pressure Over Returns
Danube Drought Exposes Nazi Wrecks and Pushes Central Europe’s Power System to the Brink
Joe Biden’s Cancer Has Spread Beyond His Bones, Hunter Biden Says
Why 2027 Could Be a Strong Year for Stocks—and Why the Forecast Is Fragile
Why Markets May Look Quiet in August After Big Tech Earnings
UK Drought Cuts Harvests and Raises Food-Security Fears
UFO: Pentagon Releases Video of Unidentified Object Tracked Over Middle East
Ukraine Tells Senate Republicans Its Drone War Offers a Blueprint for America
Weight-Loss Drug Boom Tests the Limits of Prescription Advertising Rules
Senate Scrutinises AI-Driven Personalised Pricing
Spain Seeks Mainland Transfers for 1,100 Children Stranded in Ceuta
Spain and Morocco Trade Blame After 72,000 Migrants Enter Ceuta
AI Is Remaking the US Economy, From GDP Growth to iPhone Prices
Europe’s Heat and Drought Are Now Disrupting Power, Shipping and Tourism
Europe’s Drying Rivers Trigger Power Cuts, Factory Shutdowns and Wildfire Emergencies
Record-Low Danube Forces Nuclear Cuts and Emergency Power Curbs
Danube Drought Forces Hungary’s Paks Nuclear Plant Into Full Shutdown
Ceuta Death Toll Rises as Spain and Europe Clash Over Border Response
Valued at $109 Million: F-35B Fighter Jet Crashes in Southern California
Record-Low Danube Exposes Probable Mammoth Remains in Bulgaria
US Says It Has Carried Out Heavy Strikes on Iran After Attempted Attacks on Its Forces
The AI User Nightmare: Private Claude Conversations Leaked to the Internet
Over 24 Hours in the Air: Qantas Airbus Completes Record-Breaking Test Flight
Massive Wildfires Ravage Southern Europe: Fatalities in Greece and Evacuations Across France, Spain, and Turkey
Nvidia Reportedly Takes Vast Texas Data-Centre Lease to Underwrite AI Expansion
FIFA’s Private-Investment Plan for World Cup Rights Draws European Revolt
Apple Briefly Crosses Five Trillion Dollar Valuation as Investors Retreat From AI Bets
Fresh Heatwave Threatens to Rekindle France’s Historic Wildfire Crisis
Following OpenAI's Cyberattack: 'Most Companies Still Do Not Understand What Is Coming'
OpenAI Sued After ChatGPT Allegedly Discouraged Emergency Care Before Near-Fatal Embolism
Miliband Sets Climate and International Law at Centre of UK Diplomacy
Czech Central Bank Governor Rejects Early Euro Entry and Rate-Cut Pressure
Trump Readies New Tariffs as Temporary Global Levy Nears Expiry
Vivienne Westwood Casts Cicciolina, 74, in Its New Autumn Campaign
Dejavu: Germany’s Military Expansion Reshapes Europe’s Strategic Balance With France
Morgan Stanley Builds a Wall Street Lead in AI Infrastructure Finance
High Prices Push Coffee Drinkers Toward Whole Beans and Home Brewing
Trump Draws Boos and Podium Scrutiny at Spain’s World Cup Triumph
Brilliant move: Péter Magyar Moves to Nominate Chess Grandmaster Judit Polgár as Hungary’s President
Spain Defeats Argentina in Extra Time to Win Second World Cup
Current AI Seeks to Build an Open Global AI Infrastructure Outside Big Tech Control
Germany’s Economic Malaise Reopens the Sunday Shopping Debate
Proposed U.S.-Saudi Nuclear Pact Could Permit Limited Uranium Enrichment Under International Safeguards
Netherlands Declares Water Shortage Emergency After Drought Pushes Rivers to Historic Lows
Why Kentucky Fried Chicken Became KFC—and Why the False Explanations Persist
Ukrainian Drones Strike Wildberries Warehouses Deep Inside Russia
×