In the second round of the Polish presidential election held on Sunday, July 2, 2023, Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski emerged with a slight lead, securing 50.3% of the votes according to exit polls by Ipsos, while his opponent, Karol Nawrocki, garnered 49.7%.

Another polling agency, OGB, indicated that Trzaskowski held only a marginal lead at 50.17%, illustrating the contentious nature of the election, which could still shift given the close results.

Voter turnout reached 72.8%.

Rafał Trzaskowski, 53, is backed by the Civic Coalition (KO), a political alliance led by former Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

In contrast, the 42-year-old Nawrocki, officially running as an independent, is the candidate from the opposition Law and Justice party (PiS), led by Jarosław Kaczyński.

The candidates were nearly tied in popularity following the first round of voting on May 18, with the youth demographic likely playing a critical role in the final outcome.

The implications of the election are significant for Tusk’s government and its potential to govern effectively until the parliamentary elections in 2028. An analysis of voter demographics shows a split between male and female voters.

Exit polls indicate Nawrocki would win among men with 54.3%, whereas Trzaskowski leads among women with 54.2%.

Małgorzata Trzaskowska, the mayor's spouse, acknowledged the tense moments surrounding the announcement, expressing gratitude particularly towards female voters.

Following the exit poll release, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, the Deputy Prime Minister, expressed confidence by congratulating Trzaskowski, asserting that voters chose honesty and safety.

Both candidates are cautiously optimistic, with Trzaskowski and Nawrocki thanking voters but refraining from claiming victory until official results are confirmed.

Trzaskowski’s chief of staff, Wioletta Paprocka, noted the heightened emotional state as they await final results, while Nawrocki’s chief of staff, Paweł Szefernaker, acknowledged the difficulty of the night ahead due to the razor-thin margin.

Additional data from Ipsos revealed that Trzaskowski gained support from 55.5% of those who did not vote in the first round against Nawrocki's 44.5%.

Age group distribution indicates that amongst voters aged 18-29, Nawrocki secured 51.9%, while in the 30-39 age bracket, he received 51.5%.

However, Trzaskowski was more successful among those aged 40-49 and 50-59, with 52.8% and 51.8%, respectively.

Voters aged 60 and above exhibited the most divided opinions, with Nawrocki leading marginally at 50.1% to Trzaskowski’s 49.9%.

Geographically, Trzaskowski showed substantial support in urban areas, receiving 67.8% of votes there, while Nawrocki dominated rural regions with 63.4%.

In the Polish diaspora, notably in the United States, preliminary figures indicate a record voter turnout of 87.6%, with approximately 50,000 eligible voters participating.

Among that group, Nawrocki won 56.65% of the votes.

The dynamics of the election were further influenced by voters from eliminated candidates in the first round.

Supporters of centrist Szymon Hołownia and leftist Magdalena Biejat overwhelmingly shifted towards Trzaskowski, while radical right candidates’ supporters predominantly backed Nawrocki.

Particularly noteworthy is the voting behavior of the leftist coalition’s defector, Adrian Zandberg, whose backers cast 83.8% of their votes for Trzaskowski in the second round.

As the results continue to unfold, both candidates remain engaged in a meticulous wait for the official count.