Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

The Prince Andrew affair has shown us how fragile the monarchy really is

The Prince Andrew affair has shown us how fragile the monarchy really is

This started as a scandal about one man’s behaviour. It could end up a story about the kind of country we choose to be
If a uniformed flunkey holding aloft a vellum scroll had stood in front of Buckingham Palace and read it out for the benefit of the world’s cameras on Tuesday afternoon, the message from the official proclamation would have boiled down to this: “The royal embarrassment is over. Long live the royal embarrassment.”

This week’s out of court settlement of Virginia Giuffre’s sexual assault claims against Prince Andrew is not the tidy closure of a tawdry affair. The sleazy content of the allegations and the prince’s boneheaded response to them have not merely discredited him personally – though they have done that so conclusively that only someone as obstinate as he is could think otherwise. They have also shaken the monarchy itself, and at an extremely delicate time – one that is certainly not over yet and that may continue for at least a decade.

The Andrew affair is significant from several angles. Most importantly, from one perspective it is a paradigm case of a privileged man exploiting a young and powerless woman for sex and trying to get away with it (he has always denied the allegations made against him, and did not admit responsibility in the settlement). Hardly less dramatically but in an entirely different way, it is also the very public fall from grace of the respected monarch’s own son, a man who spent the first 22 years of his life as second in line to the throne after his older brother, only a heartbeat away from being this country’s next head of state.

But the affair is also something else. It is a reminder that the institutions of the British state – which very much includes the monarchy itself – may be rather less enduring and secure than they often seem, and a bit more fragile and vulnerable than most of us sometimes think. There is absolutely no doubt that Andrew’s stupidity over the case did serious reputational damage to the monarchy. And no doubt, either, that this is how the Queen came to see it too. But that’s not necessarily the end of the matter.

The reputational danger will clearly diminish now the lawyers have struck a deal that prevents Andrew appearing in court. But it does not disappear entirely. There may be other legal proceedings in the United States. The British media are hunting the financial settlement, said to be worth at least £12m. There are already serious questions about who, possibly including the UK taxpayer, will pay for it. Andrew, 62 on Saturday, is meanwhile doomed to live out a life of ageing notoriety, perhaps as a disgraced exile in the Gulf, like the former King Juan Carlos of Spain, but still likely to want to show up on important royal events like weddings, funerals and coronations.

How much does all this really impact on the monarchy more generally? The modern monarchy has, after all, lived through difficulties before, from marital breakups, the turbulence of the Diana years and, most recently, the self-exile of the Sussexes. So you can certainly take the view that the British public’s respect for the institution is strong and resilient enough to allow it to see off yet another royal family difficulty – even one as disreputable as Andrew’s.

This doesn’t, though, tell the whole story. For one thing, it ignores the institutional mentality. The monarchy has a history of being more nervous about its own position than you might think. George V, a century ago, turned a deaf ear to the pleas for exile from his first cousin, the toppled Tsar Nicholas II, after the 1917 revolution because he feared Britain’s monarchy might follow those of Germany, Austria, Turkey and Russia into the dustbin. The king’s private secretary advised him there could be an uprising against the monarchy if the Tsar was allowed in.

George V also feared for the crown’s vulnerability from its own members. “David will let the whole show down, you’ll see,” he said, referring to his son, who ruled briefly and disastrously as Edward VIII in 1936. “London is dividing into Roundheads and Cavaliers; division is certain and only the Socialists can gain,” commented the diarist Chips Channon, readably wrong as always. Nevertheless, Edward’s abdication still casts a traumatic shadow over the monarchy today.

The Queen has managed to protect the institution for the past 70 years, although not without challenges, notably the annus horribilis in 1992 (when a succession of family members also “let the whole show down”) and the public outpourings after the death of Diana, Princess of Wales, in 1997. Throughout these years, support for Britain’s monarchy remained strong, at well above 70%. Today, though, that has slipped. Disreputable royals like Andrew are one cause of that.

The latest Ipsos Mori survey on the subject, in November 2021, showed 60% for Britain remaining a monarchy, with 21% favouring a republic and 19% don’t knows. That is still a strong position, but it is a notable decline. It has come, moreover, at a time when the Queen’s own popularity remains undiminished. In a YouGov survey last week, Elizabeth II’s favourability ratings were 84% positive against 11% negative.

When the Queen eventually goes, however, things could be very different. That same YouGov survey last week shows how. In these findings, Prince Charles is on 60% positive against 32% negative (Andrew is on 6% against 86%, which tells you why they would be crazy to bring him back into the fold). Prince William, on the other hand, is on 80% against 14%, with Prince Harry 36% against 56%.

It is not hard to see what will start to happen after the Queen’s death, and perhaps even before it. Newspapers that have always had it in for Charles will commission polls asking if the public would prefer William to succeed. The public will say yes. The monarchy will find itself sliding into becoming the object of controversy from which Elizabeth has, by and large, insulated it. Its vulnerability will be exposed and tested, not least among younger people.

If you want to make that prospect a little spicier, imagine it happening at about the same time that the future unity of the new monarch’s kingdom is itself under challenge. Suppose Northern Ireland is facing a referendum on unification, or Scotland a vote on whether to go independent. Neither is at all unthinkable within the next decade.

It will be hard for the monarch, in theory a force for unity, not to be drawn in; hard too for the public and for politics, where an anachronistic taboo on discussion of the monarchy has existed for too long, not to be drawn in too. Hard – but also good. The Andrew affair may have started life as a scandal about one man’s behaviour. It could all too easily become a story about the kind of country we choose to be.
AI Disclaimer: An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system generated the content of this page on its own. This innovative technology conducts extensive research from a variety of reliable sources, performs rigorous fact-checking and verification, cleans up and balances biased or manipulated content, and presents a minimal factual summary that is just enough yet essential for you to function as an informed and educated citizen. Please keep in mind, however, that this system is an evolving technology, and as a result, the article may contain accidental inaccuracies or errors. We urge you to help us improve our site by reporting any inaccuracies you find using the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page. Your helpful feedback helps us improve our system and deliver more precise content. When you find an article of interest here, please look for the full and extensive coverage of this topic in traditional news sources, as they are written by professional journalists that we try to support, not replace. We appreciate your understanding and assistance.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Altman Says GPT-5 Already Outpaces Him, Warns AI Could Automate 40% of Work
Russian Research Vessel 'Yantar' Tracked Mapping Europe’s Subsea Cables, Raising Security Alarms
Global Cruise Industry Posts Dramatic Comeback with 34.6 Million Passengers in 2024
U.S. Demands Brussels Scrutinize Digital Rules to Prevent Bias Against American Tech
Private Equity’s Fundraising Surge Triggers Concern of European Market Shake-Out
Tokyo’s Jimbōchō Named World’s Coolest Neighbourhood for 2025
European Officials Fear Trump May Shift Blame for Ukraine War onto EU
The Personality Rights Challenge in India’s AI Era
Italy Considers Freezing Retirement Age at 67 to Avert Scheduled Hike
Italian City to Impose Tax on Visiting Dogs Starting in 2026
Study Finds No Safe Level of Alcohol for Dementia Risk
Trump Says Ukraine Can Fully Restore Borders with NATO Backing
Europe Signals Stronger Support for Taiwan at Major Taipei Defence Show
Germany Weighs Excluding France from Key European Fighter Jet Programme
Cyberattack Disrupts Check-in and Boarding Systems at Major European Airports
Björn Borg Breaks Silence: Memoir Reveals Addiction, Shame and Cancer Battle
When Extremism Hijacks Idealism: How the Baader-Meinhof Gang Emerged and Fell
JWST Data Brings TRAPPIST-1e Closer to Earth-Like Habitability
Trump Orders $100,000 Fee on H-1B Visas and Launches ‘Gold Card’ Immigration Pathway
France’s Looming Budget Crisis and Political Fracture Raise Fears of Becoming Europe’s “Sick Man”
Three Russian MiG-31 Jets Breach Estonian Airspace in ‘Unprecedentedly Brazen’ NATO Incident
European manufacturers against ban on polluting cars: "The industry may collapse"
Turkish car manufacturer Togg Enters German Market with 5-Star Electric Sedan and SUV to Challenge European EV Brands
Christian Brueckner Released from German Prison after Serving Unrelated Sentence
World’s Longest Direct Flight China Eastern to Launch 29-Hour Shanghai–Buenos Aires Direct Flight via Auckland in December
New OpenAI Study Finds Majority of ChatGPT Use Is Personal, Not Professional
The conservative right spreads westward: a huge achievement for 'Alternative for Germany' in local elections
Pope Leo Warns of Societal Crisis Over Mega-CEO Pay, Citing Tesla’s Proposed Trillion-Dollar Package
Poland Green-Lights NATO Deployment in Response to Major Russian Drone Incursion
U.S. and China Agree on Framework to Shift TikTok to American Ownership
Le Pen Tightens the Pressure on Macron as France Edges Toward Political Breakdown
Czech Republic signs €1.34 billion contract for Leopard 2A8 main battle tanks with delivery from 2028
Penske Media Sues Google Over “AI Overviews,” Claiming It Uses Journalism Without Consent and Destroys Traffic
Indian Student Engineers Propose “Project REBIRTH” to Protect Aircraft from Crashes Using AI, Airbags and Smart Materials
One in Three Europeans Now Uses TikTok, According to the Chinese Tech Giant
Could AI Nursing Robots Help Healthcare Staffing Shortages?
NATO Deploys ‘Eastern Sentry’ After Russian Drones Violate Polish Airspace
The New Life of Novak Djokovic
German police raid AfD lawmaker’s offices in inquiry over Chinese payments
Volkswagen launches aggressive strategy to fend off Chinese challenge in Europe’s EV market
France Erupts in Mass ‘Block Everything’ Protests on New PM’s First Day
Poland Shoots Down Russian Drones in Airspace Violation During Ukraine Attack
Apple Introduces Ultra-Thin iPhone Air, Enhanced 17 Series and New Health-Focused Wearables
Macron Appoints Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minister Amid Budget Crisis and Political Turmoil
Vatican hosts first Catholic LGBTQ pilgrimage
Apple Unveils iPhone 17 Series, iPhone Air, Apple Watch 11 and More at 'Awe Dropping' Event
France joins Eurozone’s ‘periphery’ as turmoil deepens, say investors
France Faces New Political Crisis, again, as Prime Minister Bayrou Pushed Out
Nayib Bukele Points Out Belgian Hypocrisy as Brussels Considers Sending Army into the Streets
France, at an Impasse, Heads Toward Another Government Collapse
×