Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

The EU is facing its worst recession ever, which has a major effect on the rest of the world

The EU is facing its worst recession ever, which has a major effect on the rest of the world

New forecasts predict a 7.4 percent economic collapse, and risks of even worse decline, if the reopening triggers a second virus wave.
The good news for Europe is that the worst of the pandemic is beginning to ease. This week deaths in Italy hit a nearly two-month low. And the German leader Angela Merkel announced that schools, day care centers and restaurants would reopen in the next few days.

But the relief could be short-lived.

The European Commission released projections on Wednesday that Europe’s economy will shrink by 7.4 percent this year. A top official told residents of the European Union, first formed in the aftermath of the Second World War, to expect the “deepest economic recession in its history.”

To put this figure in perspective, the 27-nation bloc’s economy had been predicted to grow by 1.2 percent this year. In 2009, at the back of the global financial crisis, it shrank by 4.5 percent.

It’s a grim reminder that even if the virus dissipates, the economic fallout could pressure the world economy for months, if not years.

In China, where the outbreak has subsided in recent weeks, the factories that power the global supply chain have been fired up. But with few global buyers for its goods, its economy has been slow to recover.

In the United States, where the growth of new cases in the hardest-hit areas shows signs of slowing and there is a push to lift lockdowns, there are also signs that a recovery may be elusive. The government on Friday is set to release the monthly employment report, and some forecasts predict a loss of more than 20 million jobs in April — a number that would wipe out a decade’s worth of job gains.

The European Union, home to 440 million people, is the United States’ No. 1 trading partner, and China’s second-largest. It’s the biggest foreign investor in sub-Saharan Africa and other parts of the developing world.

A prolonged European recession, a second wave of the virus or an anemic economic recovery would spell added misery for many Europeans, and hurt companies, banks and people the world over. The crisis is also reigniting political divisions between a wealthier north and a poorer south, threatening to break the brittle balance between divergent nations with inextricably linked economies.

A recovery will probably start unevenly in the second half of the year, Paolo Gentiloni, European commissioner for economy, said at a news conference after the release of the forecast, which comes out four times a year. But by the end of 2021 the countries of the European Union will be in worse shape than they were just two months ago, before the coronavirus started ripping through the continent. U.S. gross domestic product fell at a 4.8 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year, and some economists believe it will contract at an annual rate of 30 percent or more in the current quarter.

A resurgence of the virus after the end of lockdowns would shave a further 3 percentage points off economic performance this year, he said.

The economies of Italy and Spain, two of the countries hardest hit by the disease, will most likely shrink by over 9 percent each this year, and Italy’s economy will be particularly slow to recover, Mr. Gentiloni said.

Greece, which had started turning a corner after a decade of economic calamity, will be worst-hit in the union, according to the forecasts, losing 9.7 of its economic output this year. Poland would suffer the least, with a 4.5 percent recession.

And unemployment will most likely average 9 percent in the bloc, the European Commission said, from 6.7 percent the year before.

The bloc’s biggest economy, Germany, will also be hammered, suffering its worst recession since World War II, set to shrink by 6.5 percent, but it is expected to recover relatively quickly. France, the second-largest economy, is expected to contract 8.5 percent this year.

The severe downturn in Europe will have major repercussions for United States growth and jobs because the two economies are intimately connected.

The European Union and the United States are each other’s largest trading partners, exchanging goods and services worth $1.3 trillion last year. European companies like Daimler, BMW or Siemens employ more than four million people in the United States, according to U.S. government figures.

China will also suffer. The European Union is second only to the United States as a customer for Chinese goods.

As grim as the economic outlook appears, the greater danger to the world economy may be the risk that the euro common currency could be undermined by the deepening rifts between its members and their leaders. That almost happened in the early years of the last decade, but was averted when the European Central Bank, the euro’s Federal Reserve, used its monetary firepower to prevent Greece, Italy and Spain from becoming insolvent.

The central bank is again flooding the eurozone with credit and buying the bonds of eurozone governments to keep their borrowing costs from spinning out of control. But the central bank’s ability to rescue the euro again may be constrained after a ruling Tuesday by Germany’s highest court.

The German Constitutional Court issued an ultimatum to the European Central Bank, saying it must show that the side effects of the bond buying do not outweigh the economic benefits. The court threatened to bar Germany’s central bank, the Bundesbank, from taking part in the stimulus program, which would be a serious breach of European unity.

The coronavirus is already producing an economic shock in Europe more severe than the one that followed the financial crisis in 2008.

“It is clearly more massive, and it is going down more steeply,” Clemens Fuest, the president of the Ifo Institute, one of Germany’s leading economic think tanks, said during an online presentation Wednesday.

The pandemic could have ramifications for politics and society that are impossible to predict. The economic dislocation caused by the 2008 financial crisis helped fuel far-right populist movements in Germany, Italy and France.

Europe’s best hope is that economies will bounce back quickly, in what economists optimistically call a V-shaped recession, as lockdowns are eased.

Already, factories have resumed production in much of Italy, and Germany this week allowed hairdressers to begin receiving customers again. France will begin gradually ending its lockdown next week.

But many restrictions remain, including bans on large public gatherings. And no one knows yet whether the virus will reappear with a vengeance as public life resumes.

The fresh set of figures will pile pressure on European leaders to conjure up a brave joint response to the recession to ensure the recovery isn’t lopsided, hurting the joint currency and spawning more political unrest in the weaker economies.

Although the leaders have approved a half-trillion euros’ worth of measures that effectively call on wealthier nations to subsidize the recovery of worse-hit poorer ones, they have been criticized for not going far enough.

The persistent divide “poses a threat to the single market and the euro area — yet it can be mitigated through decisive, joint European action,” Mr. Gentiloni said.
AI Disclaimer: An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system generated the content of this page on its own. This innovative technology conducts extensive research from a variety of reliable sources, performs rigorous fact-checking and verification, cleans up and balances biased or manipulated content, and presents a minimal factual summary that is just enough yet essential for you to function as an informed and educated citizen. Please keep in mind, however, that this system is an evolving technology, and as a result, the article may contain accidental inaccuracies or errors. We urge you to help us improve our site by reporting any inaccuracies you find using the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page. Your helpful feedback helps us improve our system and deliver more precise content. When you find an article of interest here, please look for the full and extensive coverage of this topic in traditional news sources, as they are written by professional journalists that we try to support, not replace. We appreciate your understanding and assistance.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Ukraine Declares De Facto War on Hungary and Slovakia with Terror Drone Strikes on Their Gas Lifeline
A monster hit and a billion-dollar toy empire
Animated K-pop Musical ‘KPop Demon Hunters’ Becomes Netflix’s Most-Watched Original Animated Film
Canada: Nurse Suspended and Fined 93 Thousand Dollars After Stating the World’s Most Well-Known Fact Since the Creation of Adam and Eve, That There Are Only Two Genders
Elon Musk tweeted, “Europe is dying”
Far-Right Activist Convicted of Incitement Changes Gender and Demands: "Send Me to a Women’s Prison" | The Storm in Germany
Hungary Criticizes Ukraine: "Violating Our Sovereignty"
Will this be the first country to return to negative interest rates?
U.S. Treasury Secretary Whitney Bessent Backs Stablecoins to Boost Treasury Demand
Spain to Declare Disaster Zones After Massive Wildfires
Three-Minute Battery Swap Touted as Future of EVs
Beijing Military Parade to Showcase Weapons Advances
U.S. Tech Stocks Slide on AI Boom Concerns
White House Confirms Talks Over Intel Stake
Trump Suggests U.S. Could Support Ukraine ‘By Air’
Trump Called Viktor Orbán: "Why Are You Using the Veto"
Horror in the Skies: Plane Engine Exploded, Passengers Sent Farewell Messages
AI in Policing: Draft One Helps Speed Up Reports but Raises Legal and Ethical Concerns
Shame in Norway: Crown Princess’s Son Accused of Four Rapes
Apple Begins Simultaneous iPhone 17 Production in India and China
A Robot to Give Birth: The Chinese Announcement That Shakes the World
Finnish MP Dies by Suicide in Parliament Building
Outrage in the Tennis World After Jannik Sinner’s Withdrawal Storm
Class Action Lawsuit Against Volkswagen: Steering Wheel Switches Cause Accidents
UK Government Tries to Sue 4chan for Breaching Online Safety Act
Dogfights in the Skies: Airbus on Track to Overtake Boeing and Claim Aviation Supremacy
Tim Cook Promises an AI Revolution at Apple: "One of the Most Significant Technologies of Our Generation"
Are AI Data Centres the Infrastructure of the Future or the Next Crisis?
Miles Worth Billions: How Airlines Generate Huge Profits
Cambridge Dictionary Adds 'Skibidi,' 'Delulu,' and 'Tradwife' Amid Surge of Online Slang
Zelenskyy Returns to White House Flanked by European Allies as Trump Pressures Land-Swap Deal with Putin
The CEO Who Replaced 80% of Employees for the AI Revolution: "I Would Do It Again"
"Every Centimeter of Your Body Is a Masterpiece": The Shocking Meta Document Revealed
Character.ai Bets on Future of AI Companionship
China Ramps Up Tax Crackdown on Overseas Investments
Japanese Office Furniture Maker Expands into Bomb Shelter Market
Intel Shares Surge on Possible U.S. Government Investment
Hurricane Erin Threatens U.S. East Coast with Dangerous Surf
EU Blocks Trade Statement Over Digital Rule Dispute
EU Sends Record Aid as Spain Battles Wildfires
Beijing is moving into gold and other assets, diversifying away from the dollar
China Requires Data Centres to Source Majority of AI Chips Locally, For Technological Sovereignty
Escalating Clashes in Serbia as Anti-Government Protests Spread Nationwide
Category 5 Hurricane in the Caribbean: 'Catastrophic Storm' with Winds of 255 km/h
Trump Backs Putin’s Land-for-Peace Proposal Amid Kyiv’s Rejection
Digital Humans Move Beyond Sci-Fi: From Virtual DJs to AI Customer Agents
YouTube will start using AI to guess your age. If it’s wrong, you’ll have to prove it
Jellyfish Swarm Triggers Shutdown at Gravelines Nuclear Power Station in Northern France
OpenAI’s ‘PhD-Level’ ChatGPT 5 Stumbles, Struggles to Even Label a Map
Zelenskyy to Visit Washington after Trump–Putin Summit Yields No Agreement
×