Recent preliminary data from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH) on demographic trends for 2024 has prompted an analysis from OTP Ingatlanpont, focusing on internal migration patterns within Hungary.

In the past year, the populations of Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén and Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg counties each decreased by more than 2,500 individuals.

Following closely, Hajdú-Bihar county experienced a decline of approximately 1,250 people.

Conversely, Pest county recorded a substantial net gain of residents, with 5,800 more people moving in than leaving.

Győr-Moson-Sopron county also showed positive internal migration with an increase of 1,500 residents, while Fejér county’s gain was approximately 1,150 individuals.

Over the past five years, from 2020 to 2024, Budapest has experienced the most significant population decrease, losing around 26,000 residents primarily due to migration out of the city.

In 2021 alone, nearly 44,000 left Budapest, far surpassing the 10,000 newcomers.

This trend has stabilized with losses dropping below 1,000 for the years 2023 and 2024, a shift analysts attribute to the increased acceptance of remote work resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, prompting many residents to relocate to suburban areas.

Borsod and Szabolcs experienced significant outmigration as well, each seeing declines of roughly 14,000 residents over the five-year period.

In stark contrast, Pest county’s internal migration accounted for a net gain of around 52,000 individuals, while populations in Győr-Moson-Sopron and Fejér increased by nearly 9,000 and 6,500, respectively.

Population changes are influenced not only by migration but also by natural growth, defined by the balance of births and deaths.

For 2024, Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg county's population decreased by approximately 0.5% due to internal relocations, whereas Borsod's decline was 0.41% and Békés 0.26%.

Conversely, Pest county's population grew by 0.44%, with Győr-Moson-Sopron and Fejér counties reporting increases of 0.32% and 0.27%, respectively.

In assessing internal migration against property prices, data from the National Tax and Customs Administration (NAV) shows notable trends.

Over the last five years, housing prices surged the most in Csongrád-Csanád county, where values increased by 105%, despite a modest internal migration loss of 0.32%.

This price growth has been attributed to significant investments in the automotive industry, which have driven demand for local properties.

Hajdú-Bihar county saw an 85% increase in average housing prices, also linked to major investments, while recording a migration loss of 1.3%.

Bács-Kiskun county demonstrated similar dynamics, stabilizing its population post the opening of a Mercedes factory, with input from neighboring regions indicating a weak migration inflow.

Baranya county experienced the second-largest price growth at 88%, despite the lack of major projects in its vicinity, though rumors of potential new industrial ventures occasionally circulate.

The smallest increase in housing prices was recorded in Tolna county at 46%, with Budapest reporting a 51% rise.

The data indicates that although there is a relationship between migration and housing prices, it is not always direct or immediate.

Significant investments can stimulate immediate housing market demand, while migration trends might only follow with delays as local economies adjust to new labor dynamics.

Additionally, the starting price levels play a crucial role, as Budapest’s average property price was approximately 671,000 HUF per square meter in 2020, significantly exceeding prices in most other counties, where 2024 averages remain below this threshold.

In contrast, Nógrád county continues to have the lowest prices, with average values around 200,000 HUF per square meter.

Therefore, the percentage increase in housing prices may not accurately reflect internal migration trends due to varying baseline prices.