Poland and Hungary have been the European Union's bad boys who have scratched each other’s backs for a while. Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine now looks liable to cause a breakup.

The EU's most recent attempt to punish Budapest for the way it has strangled democracy could be the moment Poland reveals how dismayed it is with its one-time partner-in-crime.

It all points to some shifting alliances within the EU triggered by the start of the war that's been raging close to the bloc's borders for over nine months. While Italy's new government may send some positive vibes Hungary's way, Poland could go in the opposite direction. Over the long term that might make Orbán more isolated when he tries to stand up to Brussels.

Despite having a common ambition to fend off the bloc's rule-of-law police, Hungary and Poland now find themselves in "an increasingly toxic relationship," according to Jakub Jaraczewski, research coordinator for Democracy Reporting International, a Berlin-based NGO. "But it's a relationship with which they are stuck."

It's the pro-Russian stance of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán that has turned things sour.

The latest policies to irk Warsaw are Orbán’s veto of an €18 billion EU aid package for Ukraine and a global deal on minimum corporation tax — moves that Hungary sees as a way of pressurizing the European Commission into releasing funds it is currently holding back over Budapest's limits on democratic freedoms.

Whereas before Putin's invasion Warsaw might have seen this as a legitimate course of action, now, as it takes a hard line on Russia and seeks to help Ukraine, Orbán’s ruthless tactics could tip it over the edge.

The spat is on track to come to a head within days when governments vote on freezing more EU funds to Hungary. The Commission is set to formally propose the move on Wednesday. Poland is confronted with the choice of continuing to provide political cover for Budapest or break away, EU officials said.

The two countries have long backed each other up by each vetoing the other's punishments meted out by the Commission — the so-called Article 7 process that suspends governments' EU voting rights when there's been a breach of fundamental EU values.

The Commission triggered proceedings against both capitals over democratic backsliding but because that penalty needed all other EU countries to agree, Hungary and Poland have previously managed to save each other.

D-Day

Wednesday's Commission proposal relates to freezing €7.5 billion in regular EU funds and €5.8 billion in recovery grants to Hungary until Orbán’s government complies with 27 reforms, including anticorruption measures and judicial reforms.

The hot potato then gets passed to EU capitals, which will be asked to conditionally approve Hungary’s spending plan under the bloc’s post-pandemic recovery fund, as well as freezing the €7.5 billion regular funds.

The decision should take place at a gathering of finance ministers currently scheduled for December 6, but more clarity will emerge at a meeting of EU ambassadors on Thursday.

Hungary doesn't exclude escalating the matter to a summit of EU leaders in mid-December.

“The Commission's proposal was a cold shower for us, because there was no other signs that there would be a problem of trust,” Hungarian Development Minister Tibor Navracsics, in charge of negotiations with the EU, told POLITICO in an interview this week.

To a certain extent, Poland's decision this time will be symbolic, pointing towards political realignment within the EU, rather than having any concrete effect. Even if Poland and Italy — where elections in September gave rise to a conservative government with pro-Russian elements — were to vote with Hungary it's likely that both decisions will be adopted by a qualified majority, amounting to 55 percent of EU countries accounting for 65 percent of the bloc’s population. That would see Hungary receive approval but no funds until it has complied with all requested reforms.

At this point, it’s unclear how Poland will vote on the question of releasing funds to Hungary, officials said, but much will hinge on Budapest dropping its vetoes, particularly on Ukrainian aid.

Poland has self-interest too. It is seeking to wangle EU funds from Brussels, and it’s showing small signs of willingness to move. With elections next fall looking increasingly contested, the government has an interest in winning the Commission's approval for disbursements

In a sign, according to Jaraczewski, that "the Polish government is slowly caving in," Poland’s Supreme Court ruled that Igor Tuleya — a judge who has become a symbol of opposition to the government’s judicial policies — could return to work after being suspended for two years following allegations of wrongdoing by government prosecutors.

The Polish government did not reply to a request for comment.