In a recent event, Péter Törcsi, president of the Oeconomus Economic Research Foundation, opened discussions with a pointed statement regarding reactions to former President Donald Trump's trade policies, noting that while regional leaders were prepared for his tariff measures, Western European leaders and Brussels elites were left in shock.

He emphasized the problematic nature of these policies, given the EU's framework of common customs policy.

Törcsi urged for a consensus in EU financial policy that relies on common sense while factoring in Central European perspectives.

He announced the spread of the Oeconomus Economic Club format, inspired by American organizations, which was set to have a similar meeting in Warsaw on the same day organized by Ordo Iuris.

Máté Lóga, State Secretary for Economic Development at the Ministry of National Economy, discussed U.S.-Hungarian relations, stating that the past two decades saw the peak of ties during Trump’s first presidency, highlighting current expectations for the new administration.

He criticized the Biden administration's termination of the double taxation avoidance agreement, labeling it a hostile act but remained optimistic about potential American investments in Hungary, albeit with uncertainties regarding targeted sectors.

In a video conference, American experts discussed Trump's tariff policy, indicating it was a strategic move rather than a surprise.

Edward Corrigan, CEO of the Conservative Partnership Institute, argued that Trump's actions were logical, aiming to open markets rather than simply invoking a trade war through tariffs.

Corrigan acknowledged the understanding of Hungarian diplomacy in facilitating beneficial U.S.-EU relations, noting the established rapport between Trump and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

Contrasting views emerged from Christopher Butler, Executive Director of Americans for Tax Reform and the Tholos Foundation, who highlighted internal contradictions within Trump’s tariff policy from a classical liberal perspective.

He noted that while the official narrative aimed to isolate China and revive manufacturing domestically, tariffs inadvertently affected various countries, complicating the overarching strategy.

Butler also forecasted substantial price increases and potential economic recession should all Trump-imposed tariffs remain effective.

European experts joined the discourse, with Robert Tyler, senior political advisor at New Direction, asserting that trade wars inherently lead to downward competition, resulting in losses for both the EU and the U.S. He pointed out the irony in Trump’s ability to push the world's most protectionist trade bloc towards free trade.

Tyler expressed optimism for future agreements, citing supportive EU leaders like Orbán and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

John O'Sullivan, president of the Danube Institute, warned about the domestic political risks Trump faces, stipulating that while tariffs could initiate freer trade, they also risk elevating prices in the U.S. without a clear narrative.

The discussion highlighted the significance of economic autonomy, underscoring lessons learned from the pandemic that exposed the risks of reliance on foreign supply chains for essential products.

Participants presented alarming statistics, including that China produces 33 percent of global goods while the U.S. contributes only 15 percent.

Specific examples illustrated vulnerabilities even in military supplies, presenting strategic concerns for the U.S.

Participants noted the structural imbalance between services and manufacturing in both the EU and the U.S., with services making up 75 percent of their economies.

They argued the necessity for production of essential goods to mitigate crises.

One expert framed Trump’s approach as a recognition that politics must direct economic policy, a perspective hinting at the need for reshoring critical production capabilities, even if the short-term impacts might be painful.

A geopolitical expert delivered the most pessimistic outlook, suggesting that the current circumstances transcend mere tariff disputes, with implications for U.S. territorial integrity and influence.

The expert warned of potential conflict between the U.S. and China if new terms dictated by the U.S. are not accepted by China.

The event took place on May 8, prior to a recent announcement regarding U.S.-China tariffs, stating both governments agreed to end the tariff conflict following negotiations in Geneva, resulting in a temporary agreement to reduce mutual tariffs by 115 percent, thus closing the trade war that had persisted for 40 days.

A significant comment from a policy analyst asserted that the global trading system is unsustainable and warned of the dollar's decline as a reserve currency, stating that developments transcend tariffs.

The analyst emphasized the necessity for countries to adapt to a new economic reality, predicting that the next 12-24 months would require economic stimuli to cope with trading shocks.

The discussion reflected on suggestions made by Viktor Orbán last year, indicating that the Western world faces challenges not from within but from an imminent global system change, with Asia rising as a pivotal center in the coming decades.

Respecting Hungary's role in this shifting landscape, an aggregation of strategies was suggested to navigate new geopolitical realities.

Participants at the Oeconomus event ranged from business representatives to economists, stressing the urgent need for companies to reassess their supply chains in light of ongoing tariff wars and the broader geopolitical climate, emphasizing that readiness and adaptation are crucial for maintaining competitiveness in this evolving landscape.