Hungarian Fiscal Council Identifies Risks in 2026 Budget Plan
Concerns raised about growth forecasts and budget targets in the draft budget proposal submitted for national review.
The draft legislation concerning Hungary's central budget for 2026 was completed by Easter.
National Economy Minister Márton Nagy sent a letter on April 24 to the President of the Fiscal Council requesting an assessment of the proposal.
The three-member Council, led by Gábor Horváth, which includes Mihály Varga, the President of the Hungarian National Bank, and László Windisch, the President of the State Audit Office, has provided feedback on the 2026 budget plan.
While they did not express fundamental objections and granted preliminary approval, they identified numerous risks, particularly concerning the government's projected economic growth.
In the 28-page document, the term 'risk' is mentioned 27 times in various forms.
The Council indicated that the government's forecasts related to economic growth are accompanied by significant uncertainties.
The persistence of higher tariff levels may adversely affect Hungary's export sector, and 'uncertain prospects' could hinder investment activity.
Additionally, the Fiscal Council noted that there are 'risks surrounding' the achievement of deficit targets.
The targets could be jeopardized if economic growth does not materialize as expected or if European Union funds do not flow in at the anticipated levels.
The Council also criticized the government's initial proposal, which allocated only 50 billion forints for risk management within the budget plan, a figure that the government has indicated it would increase to 192 billion forints following the Council's advisory.
According to the draft budget for 2026, the Health Insurance Fund is set to receive 1,710.9 billion forints, which represents a 9.4 percent reduction compared to the funds earmarked for health in 2025. The government plans to allocate 195 billion forints in 2026 for high-value drug financing.
Although this amount is 8.3 percent more than the 2025 allocation, the Fiscal Council has indicated that, based on recent years and the current figures for 2025, this may 'likely be insufficient.'
National Economy Minister Márton Nagy sent a letter on April 24 to the President of the Fiscal Council requesting an assessment of the proposal.
The three-member Council, led by Gábor Horváth, which includes Mihály Varga, the President of the Hungarian National Bank, and László Windisch, the President of the State Audit Office, has provided feedback on the 2026 budget plan.
While they did not express fundamental objections and granted preliminary approval, they identified numerous risks, particularly concerning the government's projected economic growth.
In the 28-page document, the term 'risk' is mentioned 27 times in various forms.
The Council indicated that the government's forecasts related to economic growth are accompanied by significant uncertainties.
The persistence of higher tariff levels may adversely affect Hungary's export sector, and 'uncertain prospects' could hinder investment activity.
Additionally, the Fiscal Council noted that there are 'risks surrounding' the achievement of deficit targets.
The targets could be jeopardized if economic growth does not materialize as expected or if European Union funds do not flow in at the anticipated levels.
The Council also criticized the government's initial proposal, which allocated only 50 billion forints for risk management within the budget plan, a figure that the government has indicated it would increase to 192 billion forints following the Council's advisory.
According to the draft budget for 2026, the Health Insurance Fund is set to receive 1,710.9 billion forints, which represents a 9.4 percent reduction compared to the funds earmarked for health in 2025. The government plans to allocate 195 billion forints in 2026 for high-value drug financing.
Although this amount is 8.3 percent more than the 2025 allocation, the Fiscal Council has indicated that, based on recent years and the current figures for 2025, this may 'likely be insufficient.'
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